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College Football Picks: Week 4, 2009



College Football Picks (Week 1, 2009): 3-2 (+$350)
College Football Picks (Week 2, 2009): 2-3 (-$710)
College Football Picks (Week 3, 2009): 1-3-1 (-$590)

College Football Picks (2009 Season): 6-8-1 (-$950)
College Football Picks (2008 Season): 49-38 (+$3,020)

By the way, the third-annual Walter/Joker Annual Challenge is on, as I'll be competing with the Joker's College Picks. We each pick five games and see who does the best each week.



Ole Miss (2-0) at South Carolina (2-1)
Line: Ole Miss by 4.

Thursday, 7:45 ET

This has everything I look for in a big play: A home dog is under the weeknight lights on national TV, and is seeing the line move toward its way despite the fact that all the money is on the visitor.

Seriously, how much of a sucker bet is this? The No. 4 team in the country favored by only four against an unranked team? Sounds too easy.

This line opened at -4.5, and despite the fact that 90 percent of the action is on the visitor, it has drifted down to -4 (-3.5 in some places).

South Carolina has a really good defense and a solid quarterback. Ole Miss' Jevan Snead, meanwhile, has been pretty shaky thus far.

This is my College Football Pick of the Month. Vegas lost a ton of money in the NFL this past weekend, and the books need to recoup their losses somehow.

Prediction: South Carolina 31, Ole Miss 24
South Carolina +4 (7 Units - September College Football Pick of the Month) -- Correct; +$700
South Carolina 16, Ole Miss 10






Missouri (3-0) at Nevada (0-2)
Line: Missouri by 7.5.

Friday, 9:00 ET

This is the same formula as the Ole Miss-South Carolina game, only I have less confidence in 0-2 Nevada. However, the Wolfpack haven't played a home game yet, and their two losses have come to Notre Dame and 3-0 Colorado State. They're not that bad.

Once again, the public is taking a look at this spread and pounding Missouri (93 percent). The line opened -8, and is now -7 in some places.

Prediction: Missouri 34, Nevada 31
Nevada +7.5 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330
Missouri 31, Nevada 21





Colorado State (3-0) at BYU (2-1)
Line: BYU by 17.

Saturday, 6:00 ET

Goodbye, national championship. BYU's dreams were crushed in a blowout loss to Florida State last week.

There's no way the Cougars can rebound from that in just seven days. Last year, BYU began the season 6-0. After its first loss, it nearly went down to UNLV as a 23-point favorite.

BYU will be flat here against a very capable Colorado State squad.

Prediction: BYU 23, Colorado State 17
Colorado State +17 (5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$550
BYU 42, Colorado State 23








LA-Lafayette (2-1) at Nebraska (2-1)
Line: Nebraska by 28.

Saturday, 7:00 ET

Nebraska just had a pretty tough emotional loss against Virginia Tech. As a big favorite, they'll show up flat against a Louisiana-Lafayette squad that would have pushed with this spread against LSU last week.

Prediction: Nebraska 34, LA-Lafayette 14
LA-Lafayette +28 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330
Nebraska 55, LA-Lafayette 0



Iowa (3-0) at Penn State (3-0)
Line: Penn State by 10.

Saturday, 8:00 ET

It amazes me how high this spread is. Let's ignore the fact that Iowa gives Penn State problems every year; the Hawkeyes are a pretty good team that should be ranked in the top 15.

The Nittany Lions' offense hasn't exactly impressed versus three crap opponents, and the team as a whole hasn't been tested yet. Iowa could very easily win this game.

I'm only laying two units here because this is a night game and there will be ton of emotion at Beaver Stadium. If this were an afternoon contest, Iowa would be a huge play for me - and this is coming from a Penn State fan and alumnus.

Prediction: Penn State 17, Iowa 16
Iowa +10 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
Iowa 21, Penn State 10



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