Week 8 notes...Hey guys, I unearthed some interesting situational trends/angles for this week. First off, road teams coming off of a tie are 0-7 SU and ATS the following week, losing by an avg. of 19.3 points. This makes sense considering they played an entire extra quarter, and now have to travel. This puts Seattle and Arizona in very tough spots. Seattle has to go on at 10 AM local time against Drew Bress. The Saints are averaging 36 PPG at home this season. Seattle's defense was also on the field for 47 minutes on Sunday! That's like playing a game and a half in one night. The Cardinals have to face a Panthers team coming off of a bye. Teams off a bye are 34-15 SU against teams who just played an OT game...I like how Walter lists Carolina as an underrated team. They are only giving the standard 3 points this week, and the public isn't really betting on them that much as of right now. They final appear to be a in a decent betting position....On to the New England game. Under Belichick, the Patriots are 10-2 ATS and 11-1 SU in regular season revenge games. With Brady, they are 8-0 SUATS. Brady didn't play in the first game against the Bills, but he should be completely focused considering this is his first game vs. an AFC East foe since his return. And finally, the last four times New England was looking for revenge in the regular season, they won by a combined score of 166-51! Trends and angles don't mean everything, but I still wanted to pass along this info.
The Ravens send the Chargers their 1st and 3rd rd picks this yr and next for their 1st rd pick
The Cowboys send QB Romo to the Jest for their 2nd rd pick
The Dolphins sned QB Tanneyhill to the 49ers for their 2nd rd pick
The Bears send QB Cutler to the Dolphins for their 2nd rd pick
College Football Picks (Week 1, 2010): 2-2-1 (-$160) College Football Picks (Week 2, 2010): 3-2 (+$10) College Football Picks (Week 3, 2010): 2-3 (-$270) College Football Picks (Week 4, 2010): 4-1 (+$750) College Football Picks (Week 5, 2010): 2-3 (-$710)
College Football Picks (2010 Season): 13-11-1 (-$380) College Football Picks (2009 Season): 34-34-2 (-$3,820) College Football Picks (2008 Season): 49-38 (+$3,020)
By the way, the third-annual Walter/Joker Annual Challenge is on, as I'll be competing with the Joker's College Picks. We each pick five games and see who does the best each week.
Minnesota (1-4) at Wisconsin (4-1) Line: Wisconsin by 22. Saturday, 12:00 ET
This line is way too high. In the past three weeks, Minnesota has played close games with USC and Northwestern. Wisconsin is coming off a loss and won't be as sharp.
Illinois (2-2) at Penn State (3-2) Line: Penn State by 7.5. Saturday, 12:00 ET
I've bet against Penn State a couple of times this year. Not this Saturday. Illinois is complete garbage, but managed to catch Ohio State in a down week. Their tight contest with the Buckeyes, as well as Penn State's loss to Iowa has deflated this line. I'll like the value we're getting with the Nittany Lions.
Prediction: Penn State 31, Illinois 13 Penn State -7.5 (4 Units) -- Incorrect; -$440
Boston College (2-2) at N.C. State (4-1) Line: N.C. State by 10. Saturday, 12:00 ET
Interesting that this line opened at -10 and has fallen to -9.5 in most places (not Bodog) despite tons of action on the host.
The sharps know something, and that's the fact that N.C. State will be really flat in this matchup. The Wolfpack just aren't good enough to be laying double digits against a functional team anyway.
Prediction: N.C. State 20, Boston College 17 Boston College +10 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
Pittsburgh (2-2) at Notre Dame (2-3) Line: Notre Dame by 6. Saturday, 3:30 ET
I don't know how the hell Pitt covered last week, but I'm fading them again. The Panthers are garbage, as their quarterback is some 5-foot-6 tattooed person who can't get the ball to Jonathan Baldwin. This Pitt team is epically bad.