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NCAA Football Weekly Predictions
Week 5



Note: I horrible week as far as my regular picks are concerned, but I think I may found my calling - second-half selections in college football. In addition to being 4-1 last week, I created two systems that are a combined 17-8 this year. Check back at the bottom of this page or in my forum to get my second-half plays. For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling.



West Virginia (4-0) at South Florida (3-0)
Line: West Virginia by 7.

Friday, 8:00 ET

I absolutely love South Florida in this spot. First of all, if you've been reading my picks, you know that I love betting live college home dogs in night games. It's like an 80-percent system. More importantly, however, is the fact that this is the biggest game in South Florida's history. This is the Bulls' chance to knock off a top-5 team and prove to a national audience that they're a legitimate BCS-caliber team. South Florida wins outright.

Prediction: South Florida 27, West Virginia 24
South Florida +7 (5 Units - Double Money Pick) -- Correct; +$500
South Florida 21, West Virginia 13



Penn State (3-1) at Illinois (3-1)
Line: Penn State by 3.

Saturday, 12:00 ET

I wouldn't touch this game with a 40-foot pole, but being a Penn State alumnus and a former columnist of a newspaper located near Happy Valley, I feel obligated to cover this Big Ten matchup.

I picked the Nittany Lions to beat Michigan last week for one unit. Am I surprised the Wolverines triumphed, 14-9? Not at all. I'm not confident in saying that Anthony Morelli is mentally incapable of winning big games on the road. Sure, he squeaked by Minnesota and Purdue last year, but those aren't exactly high-caliber programs.

So, where does Illinois fall? Has Ron Zook improved this team enough to rank near Michigan, Wisconsin, Penn State and Ohio State? I don't think the Illini are there yet, but they're probably close.

Illinois lost to the Nittany Lions, 26-12 last year. However, the former out-rushed and out-passed its opponent (202-40 and 156-144, respectively.) The Illini lost because they fumbled the ball away for what seemed like 100 times. They're a lot better this year, so I don't think Penn State will get any breaks this time around.

I still don't know where I'm going with this game. Either team can win. I'll go with the better quarterback for the hefty sum of zero units.

Prediction: Illinois 20, Penn State 19
Illinois +3 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
Illinois 27, Penn State 20



Duke (1-3) at Miami (3-1)
Line: Miami by 24.

Saturday, 12:00 ET

Miami is coming off a huge victory against Texas A&M and plays an early game as a huge favorite. Duke isn't as bad as people think; in fact, Blue Devils quarterback Thaddeus Lewis is the best signal caller in this contest. Duke won't win, but it'll hang the number versus a squad with a very stale offense.

Prediction: Miami 24, Duke 17
Duke +24 (2 Units - Money Pick) -- Correct; +$200
Miami 24, Duke 14



North Carolina (1-3) at Virginia Tech (3-1)
Line: Virginia Tech by 18.

Saturday, 12:00 ET

I'm stubborn, so I'll take North Carolina again. I don't think Virginia Tech's offense is reliable enough to put up 18 points themselves. The Tar Heels should be able to cover.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 20, North Carolina 7
North Carolina +18 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
Virginia Tech 17, North Carolina 10



Akron (2-2) at Connecticut (4-0)
Line: Connecticut by 13.5.

Saturday, 12:00 ET

Akron was able to keep up with Ohio State, so why can't it come within two touchdowns of Connecticut, who nearly lost to Temple? The Huskies actually defeated Pittsburgh last week as a huge underdog, so I have a feeling they'll be a little flat against an "inferior" opponent.

Prediction: Connecticut 17, Arkon 7
Akron +13.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
Connecticut 44, Akron 10



Indiana (3-1) at Iowa (2-2)
Line: Iowa by 11.

Saturday, 12:00 ET

Another stale offense. Another early game. I think you know where I'm going with this.

Prediction: Iowa 13, Indiana 10
Indiana +11 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
Indiana 38, Iowa 20



Mississippi State (3-1) at South Carolina (3-1)
Line: South Carolina by 13.5.

Saturday, 12:30 ET

Wow, looks like Mississippi State isn't as bad as everyone thought they were after LSU thrashed them about a month ago. Since then, the Bulldogs beat up on two crappy teams and upset Auburn. South Carolina will be flat after its loss to LSU, so I think Mississippi State can hang the number in this early SEC battle.

Prediction: South Carolina 24, Mississippi State 20
Mississippi State +13.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
South Carolina 38, Mississippi State 21



Baylor (3-1) at Texas A&M (3-1)
Line: Texas A&M by 17.

Saturday, 12:30 ET

Who is Texas A&M to be favored over anyone by 17 points? This team was blown out at Miami and barely squeaked by Fresno State at home. The Aggies could be unfocused, coming off a loss and playing an 11:30 a.m. contest (local time).

Prediction: Texas A&M 23, Baylor 14
Baylor +17 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
Texas A&M 34, Baylor 10



Buffalo (1-3) at Ball State (2-2)
Line: Ball State by 16.

Saturday, 1:00 ET

Ball State put everything it had into its tilt with Nebraska last week. I don't think they have anything left. MAC contests usually favor the underdog, so I'm going with the Bulls.

Prediction: Ball State 24, Buffalo 21
Buffalo +16 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
Ball State 49, Buffalo 14



Ole Miss (1-3) at Georgia (3-1)
Line: Georgia by 15.

Saturday, 1:00 ET

Georgia sucks as a home favorite. In fact, they're 4-9 against the spread in that role the past three years. The Bulldogs just beat Alabama as an underdog, so they could be flat in this early start. Ole Miss played tight with Florida last week, meaning we can rely on the Rebels to give Georgia all they have.

Prediction: Georgia 15, Ole Miss 14
Ole Miss +15 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
Georgia 45, Ole Miss 17



Florida Atlantic (3-1) at Kentucky (4-0)
Line: Kentucky by 22.5.

Saturday, 1:00 ET

How many times can I say it? Kentucky is the most underrated team in the country. Even after knocking off Louisville and Arkansas, the Wildcats aren't favored by a valid amount. This line should be in the 30s. I can't see Florida Atlantic hanging with one of the top offenses in the nation.

Prediction: Kentucky 52, Florida Atlantic 20
Kentucky -22.5 (4 Units - Double Money Pick) -- Correct; +$400
Kentucky 45, Florida Atlantic 17



Oklahoma (4-0) at Colorado (2-2)
Line: Oklahoma by 23.

Saturday, 1:30 ET

This is a Friday afternoon addition to my selections. Colorado has no shot against the Sooners, who are taking no prisoners this year. Oklahoma wins by 40.

Prediction: Oklahoma 56, Colorado 10
Oklahoma -23 (3 Units - Money Pick) -- Incorrect; -$330
Colorado 27, Oklahoma 24



Alabama (3-1) at Florida State (2-1)
Line: Florida State by 2.5.

Saturday, 5:00 ET

This pick is for Scott of the Joker Report. There's a reason why the Seminoles are 7-13 ATS as a favorite the past three years - their offense sucks. Will they even score a single field goal, which will be good enough to cover the spread? I'm not even sure about that. Alabama has the superior athletes from the superior conference. The Tide might not even need John Parker Wilson's fourth-quarter magic on Saturday evening.

Prediction: Alabama 24, Florida State 13
Alabama +2.5 (3 Units - Money Pick) -- Incorrect; -$330
Florida State 21, Alabama 14



Ohio State (4-0) at Minnesota (1-3)
Line: Ohio State by 24.

Saturday, 8:00 ET

This is another Friday afternoon addition. I can't believe it took me until 27 hours before this contest to realize how much Minnesota sucks. Ohio State will name the score of this contest, as Glen Mason takes one step closer toward unemployment.

Prediction: Ohio State 52, Minnesota 3
Ohio State -24 (2 Units - Money Pick) -- Incorrect; -$220
Ohio State 30, Minnesota 7



USC (3-0) at Washington (2-2)
Line: USC by 21.

Saturday, 8:00 ET

Major mismatch: USC's defense versus a freshman quarterback. I'm picking USC on a weekly basis until further notice.

Prediction: USC 45, Washington 17
USC -21 (3 Units - Money Pick) -- Incorrect; -$330
USC 27, Washington 24


Second-Half Bets
Check back at halftime to see if I have any plays posted.

  • Buffalo +6.5 -105 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$105
  • Michigan -10 +105 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$210
  • Texas -10.5 +110 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$200
  • Idaho +10 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
  • Florida -10.5 +105 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$210
  • USC -13.5 -105 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$105



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