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NCAA Football Weekly Predictions
Week 11



Note: I went 5-3-2 last week, hitting three out of my top four plays, so nothing to complain about. By the way, I've challenged Scott Horn over at The Joker Report to see who's better at picking games. We'll each have about 10 selections for the week. Winner places a text ad for the other for an entire week. For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling.



Central Michigan (5-4) at Western Michigan (3-6)
Line: Central Michigan by 3.

Tuesday, 7:30 ET

Why is this game being played on Tuesday? I wouldn't have even known about it if my friend Tom didn't ask me whom I liked in this contest.

If you've been reading me picks, you should know by now: Home dog. During the week. Under the lights. Money flowing the other way (93 percent on Central Michigan). Everyone is looking at the two points Western Michigan scored on Eastern Michigan, and automatically assuming the road team will cover.

Prediction: Western Michigan 37, Central Michigan 31
Western Michigan +3 (4 Units - Double Money Pick) -- Push; -$40
Central Michigan 34, Western Michigan 31



Ohio (5-5) at Akron (3-6)
Line: Ohio by 3.

Wednesday, 7:30 ET

Seriously, can I just copy-paste what I wrote for Central Michigan-Western Michigan? Why is this game being played on Wednesday? Home dog, under the lights, weeknight, tons of money on the favorite, blah blah blah.

Prediction: Akron 24, Ohio 17
Akron +3 (4 Units - Double Money Pick) -- Correct; +$400
Akron 48, Ohio 37



Louisville (5-4) at West Virginia (7-1)
Line: West Virginia by 16.5.

Thursday, 7:45 ET

This isn't a live home dog under the lights or anything, but this is another angle I like to use. West Virginia and Louisville hate each other with a passion. They also know more about each other than anyone else does. I love taking double digits in a big rivalry. One major reason why I don't use divisional games in my Survivor Picks is because anything can happen when two teams are so familiar with each other. If Louisville wins this game, would anyone really be surprised?

Prediction: West Virginia 34, Louisville 31
Louisville +16.5 (3 Units - Money Pick) -- Correct; +$300
West Virginia 38, Louisville 31



Bowling Green (5-4) at Eastern Michigan (3-7)
Line: Bowling Green by 3.5.

Friday, 7:30 ET

What's up with all of these MAC games on weeknights? Did they sign a contract with ESPN, or something? Same home dog under the Christmas lights whatever thing applies here.

Prediction: Bowling Green 27, Eastern Michigan 24
Eastern Michigan +3.5 (4 Units - Double Money Pick) -- Incorrect; -$440
Bowling Green 39, Eastern Michigan 32



Kansas State (5-4) at Nebraska (4-6)
Line: Kansas State by 7.5.

Saturday, 12:30 ET

Whoa, talk about overreaction! Kansas State does not deserve to be a touchdown favorite at Nebraska. The Huskers' woes have been heavily publicized, but Kansas State lost to Iowa State last week! They suck too!

Prediction: Nebraska 31, Kansas State 26
Nebraska +7.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
Nebraska 73, Kansas State 31



Texas A&M (6-4) at Missouri (8-1)
Line: Missouri by 19.5.

Saturday, 12:30 ET

This Texas A&M team might be done. Excluding Nebraska, they haven't covered or beaten anyone since September. They were obliterated at Oklahoma last week, and I think they get blown out again. The players have quit on their coach.

Prediction: Missouri 45, Texas A&M 14
Missouri -19.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
Missouri 40, Texas A&M 26



Boise State (8-1) at Utah State (0-9)
Line: Boise State by 24.

Saturday, 3:05 ET

Poor Utah State just wants to win. Just one tiny, little victory. I actually had the Aggies last week and they covered at Fresno State, losing 38-27 as 20.5-point underdogs. They've actually covered five of their previous six contests, including a 52-37 loss to Hawaii as a 40-point dog. I think Utah State can keep this game close.

Prediction: Boise State 34, Utah State 17
Utah State +24 (2 Units - Money Pick) -- Incorrect; -$220
Boise State 52, Utah State 0



Florida State (6-3) at Virginia Tech (7-2)
Line: Virginia Tech by 6.

Saturday, 3:30 ET

A simple reason why I'm taking Florida State for one unit: As an underdog, Bobby Bowden is 7-2 against the spread since 2002. It's not often Bowden gets points, but when he does, he comes through.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 20, Florida State 17
Florida State +6 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
Virginia Tech 40, Florida State 21



Connecticut (8-1) at Cincinnati (7-2)
Line: Cincinnati by 6.5.

Saturday, 3:30 ET

I think the line tells you everything you need to know about this game. Connecticut's had a great run. I even bet on some of their recent games. But all of their big victories came at home. I don't think the Huskies can go on the road and defeat a talented Cincinnati squad.

Prediction: Cincinnati 27, Connecticut 17
Cincinnati -6.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
Cincinnati 27, Connecticut 3



Arizona State (8-1) at UCLA (5-4)
Line: Arizona State by 7.

Saturday, 3:30 ET

I love this game so much, it's my November Pick of the Month. Arizona State had its national-championship hopes shattered last week at Oregon. Now, the Sun Devils have to travel to Los Angeles to take on a UCLA squad, that as a home underdog, already knocked off a Cal team in a similar situation. In fact, the Bruins relish getting points at home; just check out their 13-9 upset over USC last year.

Fading a favorite that just lost its first game works all the time in college football. Cal, LSU (not covering against Auburn) and USC (not covering against Arizona) are just some examples. It also helps that 90 percent of the public is on the Sun Devils.

Prediction: UCLA 24, Arizona State 10
UCLA +7 (7 Units - November NCAA Pick of the Month) -- Correct; +$700
Arizona State 24, UCLA 20



Boston College (8-1) at Maryland (4-5)
Line: Boston College by 6.

Saturday, 8:00 ET

See the Arizona State-UCLA pick if you want to know why I love Maryland in this contest. I think things will start to unravel for the Eagles, who aren't a very good team except for Matt Ryan. Maryland is a home dog, under the lights, watching the action go the other way. Ninty-two percent of the public is on Boston College.

Prediction: Boston College 24, Maryland 20
Maryland +6 (5 Units - Double Money Pick) -- Correct; +$500
Maryland 42, Boston College 35


Second-Half Bets
Check back at halftime to see if I have any plays posted. All picks 2 Units, unless noted.

  • Kansas State -6.5 -105 -- Incorrect; -$210
  • Utah State +9.5 -- Incorrect; -$220
  • Ohio State -10 +100 -- Incorrect; -$200
  • Wyoming +3 -105 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$105



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