NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 6, 2026 – Late Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2026): 5-7 (-$420)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2026): 6-9-1 (+$740)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2026): 10-6 (-$1,395)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2026): 6-9-1 (-$795)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2026): 7-7-2 (+$445)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2026): 7-7-1 (+$3,195)
2026 NFL Picks: 41-45-5 (+$1,770)

NFL Picks (2025): 153-138-4 (+$7,055)
NFL Picks (2024): 144-136-12 (-$1,380)
NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Oct. 18, 11:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 6 NFL Picks - Early Games

The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

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LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: It's almost hard to believe now, but there was criticism of Matthew Stafford heading into the Buffalo game. Some critics said that Stafford's arm was shot, and to be fair, he was woeful in the first half against the Eagles in Week 4. He proved the doubters wrong, however, going toe to toe with Josh Allen in an epic shootout.

Granted, Stafford was up against one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL, but that can apply to the Cardinals as well. Arizona stood no chance against Jared Goff last week, as the team couldn't generate any pressure on him after the first couple of drives. This is no surprise given that the Cardinals have one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL. They have generated just 60 quarterback pressures through five games, which is pathetic.

The Cardinals also have major problems in the secondary. Stafford will be able to dissect with ease thanks to Sean McVay's guidance.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Many people expected the Cardinals to battle the Lions fiercely last week. Detroit was favored by only 5.5 points, and there were plenty of public bets coming in on Arizona because Detroit's pass defense was miserable against the Panthers. People expected the Cardinals to have similar success.

I initially suspected that Jacoby Brissett could be the problem, given that most of his production since the middle of last year has come in garbage time. However, the biggest issue was Paris Johnson's absence. The talented left tackle was sidelined last week, and that allowed the Lions to generate tons of pressure on Brissett, disrupting many drives early in the game.

Johnson is on injured reserve, so he won't be back for this game. The Rams will smell blood in the water, and they'll be able to attack Brissett just as the Lions did. I wouldn't expect many points from the Cardinals until very late in the afternoon.

RECAP: I wrote this in the Bears-Falcons pick capsule, but betting on good coaches coming off losses is generally a winning strategy. Sean McVay is 33-23 against the spread following a defeat. And yes, he also has a positive record when favored by double digits, although that's a much smaller sample size.

I expect the Rams to bounce back with a victory here, and I wouldn't be surprised if this is a blowout. However, given the nature of the Cardinals, they're always a threat for a backdoor cover. We saw this in Week 3 against the 49ers. San Francisco had a big lead for most of the afternoon, but Brissett was able to put together enough garbage-time scoring drives to eventually cover the spread with a field goal drive at the very end of the game.

I still think the Rams will cover, but I can't ignore the possibility of a backdoor cover by Arizona. If the Rams were taking on an absolutely dreadful team like the Dolphins or Titans, I would heavily bet Los Angeles to cover. However, the Cardinals are a bit better than that. Thus, I won't be betting much on this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The only thing of note on Wednesday's injury report is that Jeremiyah Love sat out to nurse his ankle. He's likely to play, but he's not 100 percent.

Meanwhile, left tackle Alaric Jackson has been suspended for one game. Jackson is a quality blind-side protector, but he's the only lineman who's going to be out. If the Rams had two or more missing linemen, I'd be a little concerned, but they can overcome Jackson's absence.

SATURDAY NOTES: The big name on the injury report is Jeremiyah Love, who will miss this game. However, I think Arizona's secondary is a more pressing concern. The Cardinals were already going to be without Andrew Wingard, and now it appears as though Budda Baker may miss this game after failing to practice on Friday with a groin injury. Zaven Collins also missed Friday's practice with an injury.

The Rams have a couple of defensive backs who followed the same practice routine this week, but Los Angeles is more likely to take advantage of this opportunity than Arizona, especially given that Baker's absence would create a cluster injury at safety. I'm going to bump up the Rams to four units.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: There's been a ton of public money coming in late on the Rams. This is a slight concern, but I still think they're the play.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Trent McDuffie is out, while Budda Baker will play. That's not ideal, but I still love the Rams. There's no sharp action on either side. The best line is the standard -12.5 -110 at BetMGM and FanDuel.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Rams.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -13.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Rams -10.5.

Computer Model: Rams -15.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.

Slight action on the Rams early, more late.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 78% (88,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Rams.

History: Rams have won 16 of the last 20 meetings.

Opening Line: Rams -12.5.

Opening Total: 52.5.

Weather: Dome.