NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 6, 2026 – Early Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2026): 5-7 (-$420)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2026): 6-9-1 (+$740)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2026): 10-6 (-$1,395)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2026): 6-9-1 (-$795)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2026): 7-7-2 (+$445)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2026): 7-7-1 (+$3,195)
2026 NFL Picks: 41-45-5 (+$1,770)

NFL Picks (2025): 153-138-4 (+$7,055)
NFL Picks (2024): 144-136-12 (-$1,380)
NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Oct. 18, 11:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 6 NFL Picks - Late Games

The Matchup. Edge: Seahawks.

WEEK 5 RECAP: Week 5 was great outside of a couple of things. We hit most of our big-unit bets, though we just missed out on the top end of each ladder, which were posted in the Discord.

I'll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Cowboys, 3 units (loss): Week 5 did not begin well. We lost on the Cowboys, who were a complete no-show. We made some money back on a Bucky Irving ladder, but Irving missed two drives with an injury, so we couldn't hit the top rung of our ladder.

Steelers, 3 units (win): The Colts kept pace for a while, but the Steelers ended up winning by double digits.

Jets, 4 units (win): It looked like the Jets were going to blow another game in which they led for most of the time, but they finally came through with a victory at the end of the game.

Bengals, 3 units (push): We had good luck and bad luck in this game. The Bengals led 28-10 an 31-18, but the Dolphins had what appeared to be a backdoor cover in the final seconds. Except, it was just a backdoor push because Miami's kicker missed the extra point. So, we didn't win a game we should have, but we pushed a game we should have lost.

Texans, 5 units (win): If only they were all this easy!

Bears, 3 units (loss): I'm surprised by what happened in this game. We were way off.

Broncos, 5 units (win): This game looked dicey for a while. The Broncos were down 17-10, but the Chargers capsized with their horrendous offensive line, giving us a nice cover because of a lost fumble at the end.

Lions, 3 units (win): Another stress-free victory.

Ravens, 5 units (win) : Mark Andrews nearly blew it for the Ravens, but his teammates overcame his usual incompetence to prevail in overtime. The only thing bad about this is that we lost a Bijan Robinson ladder.

Matthew Stafford & Josh Allen ladders, 16 units (win): We had a massive night with numerous ladders in the Bills-Rams game. Congrats to those who followed, and if you didn't, make sure you check out the Walter Football Discord.

By the way, some of you may not have noticed that all but two picks each week will be in the Premium section. I truly apologize to those who are disappointed by this, but we had no choice; otherwise, we'd have to close up shop, and there'd be no picks anyway. Because of declining ad rates as a result of our terrible economy, and AI search results blocking new people from finding this WalterFootball.com, we needed to pivot in another direction to keep the website alive. We're not asking for much - just 30 cents per day - so if you want to help us, you can sign up for WalterFootball Premium. As a bonus, you won't see any ads. This website will be incredibly fast and won't crash at all as a result of any ads.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: It was staggering to see Jaxon Smith-Njigba drop a pass late against San Francisco that cost Seattle a potential victory. Then again, Smith-Njigba was banged up with an ankle injury earlier in the quarter. It remains to be seen if he'll be completely healthy. He made a big play after suffering the injury, but there's no telling how an ankle issue will respond afterward, especially on a short week.

On the flip side, Smith-Njigba won't have to deal with Denver's starting cornerbacks, as Patrick Surtain II and Riley Moss are dealing with injuries of their own. If Smith-Njigba is healthy, the Seahawks should be able to score somewhat consistently against Denver's defense. The Broncos get after the quarterback at a high rate, but the Seahawks have a strong offensive line that should keep Sam Darnold upright.

I wouldn't expect an offensive outburst, however, given that the Seahawks have a one-dimensional offense, and Denver is ranked in the top 12 against the run anyway.

DENVER OFFENSE: The Broncos have been stagnant on this side of the ball for most of the year. The two exceptions came in the second halves against the Rams and Jaguars, when both opponents were exhausted from playing in the altitude.

There was a chance that things could change last week because Sean Payton took over the offensive play-calling duties. This didn't make much of a difference, however. The Broncos scored both of their touchdowns on short fields following Chargers turnovers. Denver ended up with 23 points but was stuck at 10 for a large portion of the second half.

The Seahawks can bring a ton of pressure, and this will create havoc for Bo Nix. This is a rough matchup for Nix, who does nothing but toss short passes. Nix used to be able to scramble out of pressure, but that's not a viable solution this year because he's coming off a foot injury. The Seahawks are also seventh against the run, so they'll be able to clamp down on J.K. Dobbins and R.J. Harvey.

RECAP: The Broncos have had two home games thus far, battling the Rams and Jaguars. They were thoroughly outplayed in the first half of each of those games but ended up winning because their opponents were exhausted from playing in the altitude. I could see the same thing happening in this game. The Seahawks just engaged in a grueling affair against the rival 49ers on Sunday, and playing a complete football game at altitude on just three days of rest could exhaust them as the evening progresses.

Smith-Njigba's ankle could also be a concern. He might be okay, but there's a chance he could experience some swelling afterward. Players can also aggravate their ankle injuries and get knocked out entirely.

I'm going to side with the Broncos in this game. I think there's a good chance the Seahawks will be exhausted in the second half and blow a potential lead they'll hold at intermission. If you like the Seahawks, I would bet them in the first half. I, however, am not planning on betting this pre-game because I hate wagering on Thursday night contests. That said, if the Seahawks are leading at halftime, I'll consider a second-half wager on Denver.

Our Week 6 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Patrick Surtain II has been ruled out, but it looks like some sharp money is coming in on the Broncos at +3. The pros have not bet +2.5 yet, however.

PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: DraftKings has a 30-percent boost for SGPs, up to $100. I'll post the parlay below.

FanDuel has two 25-percent profit boosts, up to $25 each. We're going to bet Jaxon Smith-Njigba to score two touchdowns. We're also going to bet him to hit 150+ receiving yards.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There was one injury question mark heading into this game. Riley Moss will play, so the Broncos don't have cluster injuries at cornerback. The sharps bet the Broncos at +3, but not +2.5. The best line is +3 -118 at BetRivers.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Seahawks -4.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -1.5.

Computer Model: Seahawks -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 57% (35,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

Broncos are 38-19 ATS as home underdogs since 1991.

Opening Line: Seahawks -2.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 52 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.