By Chet Gresham – @ChetGresham
Updated April 28, 2016
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Through two rounds, I’ve taken Todd Gurley at No. 7 and Alshon Jeffery at No. 18. That feels like a solid base to start from and makes my No. 3 pick feel pretty wide open. This round, I’ll have the 31st-overall selection, which according to ADP has me looking at some players like Eddie Lacy, Jarvis Landry, Thomas Rawls, T.Y. Hilton, Julian Edelman, Randall Cobb, C.J. Anderson, Carlos Hyde, etc. I’m not overly ecstatic about the wide receivers who I might be choosing from, but I could see going with Eddie Lacy, C.J. Anderson, Carlos Hyde or Thomas Rawls there.
Eddie Lacy, RB, Packers
Welp, there went Lacy. His offseason fitness regime and the return of Jordy Nelson have me fully on board with Lacy this season. He is currently being picked 28th overall as the 11th running back, but I still see this is a slight value spot for him, as I like him as a Top-10 running back with upside for more in what should quickly become a Top-5 offense once again.
Julian Edelman, WR, Patriots
Edelman is a strong PPR pick, and with the continued lackluster wide receiver options the Patriots throw out there, he should continue to be solid. Of course, just today we learned of Tom Brady losing his appeal and having his four-game suspension upheld. I’m not overly worried about Edelman though. He’ll have 12 games with Brady and should be a favorite target of Garoppolo. Edelman only played nine games last season, but averaged the eighth-most fantasy points for a wide receiver. There are some receivers with more upside who I would have probably grabbed ahead of him, but I’m a risk taker usually, and Edelman is a great and safe foundation piece in the third round.
Mark Ingram, RB, Saints
Ingram played 12 games last season and averaged the ninth-most fantasy points for running backs per game. He had six touchdowns in those 12 games, but the true boost to his production was his reception numbers, as he averaged just fewer than five receptions a game. The Saints have always played with multiple running backs, but it appears Ingram is the no-doubt lead back while healthy, and as long as he’s getting targets and goal-line carries in a good offense, he’s very much worth an early third-round pick. His ADP is actually ahead of Lacy at 27th overall and as the 10th running back off the board. I have those two close, but like Lacy’s upside a bit more.
Jarvis Landry, WR, Dolphins
Landry is a top PPR receiver, but I’m just not on board with him getting into the end zone enough to be worth a pick this early. It will, of course, be hard for him to score just four touchdowns on 111 receptions like he did last season, but with DeVante Parker coming into his second year, the end-zone targets aren’t going to be plentiful for Landry. He finished as the 11th-best PPR receiver last season, but only averaged the 17th-most points per game. Adam Gase should help this offense, but I don’t see Landry significantly topping his numbers from last season.
Doug Martin, RB, Bucs
Martin this late is a surprise. There are plenty of people not sold on him and I am one, but at the same time I don’t expect him to flop. Right now, his ADP is 25th overall and the eighth running back off the board. I see that as about right for him. He busted back out for his contract year and looked great doing so, but his competition at running back last season was pretty much injured or underutilized – I see you David Johnson and Lamar Miller! For me, Martin is a Top-10 back in a good system, but for a repeat, I think we need to see a step up by the Bucs’ offense and I am not sold just yet. But at 29th overall, I’m all thumbs up.
T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts
Hilton is a fine pick here if you really want a receiver. His ADP is 31st overall and he’s the 18th receiver off the board. I like him better than Landry, who is going ahead of him and about the same as Edelman, but with a bit more upside. But I’m targeting Donte Moncrief this season, and I doubt I’ll pick Hilton because I’m looking for a breakout from Moncrief, which might not hurt Hilton, but if I can get Hilton later, then I’ll take that route every time.
Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Ohio State
I didn’t even mention Elliott in the introduction because I figured he’d be off the board, as his overall ADP is 26th and he has been the ninth running back drafted. When it got to me I deliberated on Rawls, Anderson and Hyde, but I believe Elliott is a better back than all of them, and even though his team is still unknown, whoever drafts him will use him as an every-down back. He has the skill set to run inside, outside and to catch passes. No team is going to use its early first-round pick on a back who isn’t going to handle the load. Right now, I believe he’ll go to the Cowboys, Dolphins or Ravens; with the Cowboys would be my favorite landing spot, but I’d be fine with just about anywhere really.
Thomas Rawls, RB, Seahawks
I believe Rawls will be the workhorse for the Seahawks this season, but he’s not going to catch enough passes to be a true fantasy star. With that out of the way, I still like him here, as he’s on a very good defensive team, which will run the ball and have leads. His upside is last year’s Adrian Peterson, which is pretty darn great, but I just don’t trust Rawls as much as I do Peterson.
C.J. Anderson, RB, Broncos
The bad news for those who drafted Anderson last season in the first round is, well, that they drafted him. He was hurt early and lost carries to Ronnie Hillman, and it wasn’t until late in the season that Anderson started to show why he was such a high draft pick.
But now Anderson’s going in the third round and has proven he is the better back between himself and Hillman, and the Broncos also must agree since they signed Hillman to a 1-year deal and Anderson to a 4-year deal. Even though the Broncos didn’t commit to Anderson when they gave him an original round tender instead of just giving him a little more money, they did eventually sign him to an $18 million offer sheet after the Dolphins called their bluff. That’s all to say that even though they weren’t all-in from the start, they have now put up the cash and Anderson is locked into the lead back position on a team with a great defense and not much of a quarterback. As long as he’s healthy, he’ll see plenty of work, both on the ground and through the air, as he saw more targets than Hillman last season despite having fewer rushing attempts.
Carlos Hyde, RB, 49ers
I like Hyde a lot and think he could really surprise people this season in Chip Kelly’s offense. Kelly gave LeSean McCoy 314 rushing attempts in 2014 and 314 attempts in 2013, which was second and first in the league those seasons. Hyde is slimming down this offseason to around 220 pounds compared to the 230-235 he’s been playing at so he can be in shape for Kelly’s up-tempo offense. Hyde’s lateral ability is much closer to McCoy’s than DeMarco Murray’s, and once slimmed down, Hyde should fit into the offense perfectly.
Randall Cobb, WR, Packers
Cobb finished the 2014 season as the eighth-best fantasy wide receiver and then last season happened. Injuries to the offensive line, no running game and no Jordy Nelson bottled up the Packers’ offense and Cobb in turn. With nobody to take the pressure off Cobb or Aaron Rodgers, getting open before Rodgers was hit was not an easy task. Thankfully. 2016 is looking brighter for the Packers and Cobb. Nelson will return and Eddie Lacy purchased a treadmill. Those two things should eventually take coverage away from Cobb and give Rodgers more time.
LeSean McCoy, RB, Bills
Injuries and Karlos Williams slowed down McCoy’s numbers last season, but even with those factors, he still looked good and had a productive per game output with the 11th-most fantasy points per game for running backs. Rex Ryan is going to run the ball and a healthy McCoy is the starter. He is currently going off the board as the 37th pick and the 15th running back. With Elliott, Rawls, Anderson and Hyde all right here, McCoy wasn’t my favorite pick, but he’s in the same tier as these guys, and I’m not going to shy away from him if he’s left for me to draft.
Back to Round 1!
For a refresher, check out Chet’s MFL10 Primer.
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