By Chet Gresham – @ChetGresham
Updated April 18, 2016
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Going into Round 2, I want to get a wide receiver to balance out my No. 1 running back pick. I pick 18th and should have some decent receivers to choose from. ADP suggests I’ll have Keenan Allen and Sammy Watkins available around that pick, with Amari Cooper and Alshon Jeffery just off the board. Of those four, I actually prefer Watkins, Jeffery, Allen and then Cooper, but they are close enough that I’ll probably feel good with any of them. Of course, a running back may be there who I like, but I really don’t want to go back to back on running backs if I can help it.
A.J. Green, WR, Bengals
Green is that steady player who doesn’t have the sexy upside of the top guys, and I think it might actually surprise some that he finished with the eighth-most fantasy points for wide receivers last season. The good news for him this season is that Mohamed Sanu and Marvin Jones are both gone, which should help concentrate targets Green’s way a bit more. Despite finishing eighth, he had just the 15th-most targets for wide receivers last season. That number should go up this year.
Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings
Peterson is steady, and the fact that he saw the most rushing attempts last season and wasn’t hurt, really kept him near the top of the fantasy running backs. He finished behind Devonta Freeman, but also didn’t have to compete with Le’Veon Bell, Todd Gurley, Jamaal Charles, David Johnson and a host of other players who didn’t start 16 games like Peterson. That tells you that Peterson is a rock, but also that he could have finished much further down the rankings. His lack of receptions is starting to hurt him more than it once did, since he’s not putting up 200-yard, two-touchdown games with as much frequency. He did have one 200-yard game last season, but altogether, he topped 100 yards rushing just seven times. Peterson’s still a top pick no doubt, but his upside just isn’t as high as the three-down backs anymore. The second round seems right for him, and this is about where his ADP is.
Sammy Watkins, WR, Bills
Well, there goes my favorite pick at No. 18. Watkins went a bit earlier than his ADP, but this is a good spot for him. We saw what he could do when the offense used him in the second half of last year, and he should be force-fed the ball for 16 games this year. In the first seven games of last season, Watkins missed three and played in just tour, seeing a total of 18 targets. Then, after Buffalo’s bye, he was healthy and saw 8.7 targets per game, and had the third-most receiving yards for wide receivers in that span with 900 and the fourth-most touchdowns with seven. His ability is real, and if he can get around nine targets per game, he can give you second-round value.
Keenan Allen, WR, Chargers
And, there goes Allen! That does give me hope for Alshon Jeffery, but I am very high on Allen this year, especially in one-point PPR. Before getting injured last year, Allen had 67 receptions through the first eight games, which was just three fewer than Julio Jones to start the season. I expect a 100-catch season from Allen this year, which pretty much puts him in the Top-10 wide receivers.
Devonta Freeman, RB, Falcons
Freeman took the league by storm last season by scoring 14 total touchdowns, rushing for over 1,000 yards and catching 73 passes for another 578 yards. The question is, will he see anywhere near 14 touchdowns this season? And I think the answer is no, but the receptions shouldn’t go anywhere, which still makes him a nice pick in MFL10s. He is currently going off the board as the 13th-overall pick, which I think is a bit high. I’d much rather get him toward the end of the second round, if possible.
Alshon Jeffery, WR, Bears
So, I ended up with Jeffery, which is better than I had hoped. We know what he can do when on the field, but unfortunately, he hasn’t been on the field all that often. I also remember when Steph Curry was constantly hurt, so things change and I don’t see any blaring red flags waiving me off Jeffery this year. He has first-round ability, which is what I like in a second-round pick.
Brandin Cooks, WR, Saints
Cooks started off slow last season, but turned it on around Week 8. From Week 8 on, he finished with the eighth-most standard fantasy points for wide receivers, and this season there’s nobody moving in on his turf. Willie Snead is the bigger, more No. 1-looking receiver on the team, but Cooks will lead the team in targets and receptions again and, hopefully, will get off to a faster start. His current ADP is 22nd overall and the 14th wide receiver, so this fits. I would have probably grabbed Brandon Marshall before Cooks, but there is upside to Cooks if the Saints’ offense can get back on track this year.
Jordy Nelson, WR, Packers
Nelson is a bit of a wildcard this year coming off of an injury, but we know the Packers sure missed him and he’ll be slotted right back into the No. 1 receiver position. His upside with Aaron Rodgers as his quarterback and what should be a much better offense with Eddie Lacy slimmed down, is high. I do worry that Nelson may have lost a step though. It’s just a small worry, but it does end up causing me to let others take him before I do most of the time.
Brandon Marshall, WR, Jets
Marshall pretty much topped out what he’ll be able to do with Ryan Fitzpatrick, but that was pretty amazing, as he finished with the third-most fantasy points in PPR leagues last season. So why is he so far down the list? Well, I’m not completely sure, but one of those things is that the quarterback situation is still in doubt and even if Fitzpatrick does re-sign with the Jets, he’s still Fitzy! Another reason is that we’ve seen Marshall’s upside and we want to pick the guy who does it this year, figuring that he’ll have trouble repeating. But that still doesn’t give me enough to drop him quite this far. This is actually ahead of his ADP, which is at 23 right now. Marshall should remain a consistent and safe player, and I expect the Jets to sign Fitzpatrick at some point, which will help Marshall stay consistent.
Amari Cooper, WR, Raiders
Cooper has been going off the board as the ninth wide receiver, yet here he goes off as the 15th. I believe there is a wide variety of opinions on Cooper and this is probably in his normal range. He hit the rookie wall last year, which might turn some people off and his quarterback is good, but will he take the next step to be consistently good? There are a few questions here that have kept me from grabbing Cooper early, but his ability is real, which makes him a fine pick as the 15th receiver off the board.
Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs
I’ve been high on Mr. Charles ever since Todd Haley wouldn’t play him, and now, it seems we are already on his career decline. Injuries are usually the reason for a career decline, and Charles has had two bad ones. How much will they sap his strength and speed now that he’s at the ripe old age of 29? I wish I knew. But before his injury, he looked great and was on pace for 16 touchdowns and over 1,700 total yards. It also looks like he’ll be ready for training camp, so there is a decent chance he’s back at it in a good system for running backs this season. I’d take the discount on him at 23rd overall.
Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos
There are quite a few questions revolving around the Broncos’ passing game right now, and I’m not sure I want to take a Denver receiver this early. Last season, Thomas managed to stay useful as a fantasy player based on sheer volume. He finished as the 13th fantasy receiver, but had the fourth-most targets. On a whopping 176 targets, Thomas only caught six touchdowns. If I knew for sure he would again see the fourth-most targets, I’d still be okay with him late in the second round, but with C.J. Anderson healthy, I think the running game will be more effective than last season and cut into Thomas’ opportunities.
Back to Round 1!
For a refresher, check out Chet’s MFL10 Primer.
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