2025 NFL Picks – Week 12: Steelers at Bears

The Matchup. Edge: None.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: It’s unclear if Aaron Rodgers will play in this game, but it may not even matter. Rodgers has had some nice moments this year, but has been pretty pedestrian overall. He has released the ball quickly to avoid getting hit, which I imagine is what most 41-year-old quarterbacks would do. Mason Rudolph took over for an injured Rodgers last week and was better in a small sample size.

If I were rooting for the Steelers, I’d prefer Rudolph, at least in the short term. There’s a better chance Rudolph will take advantage of the injuries in Chicago’s secondary, though that may not be applicable moving forward. The Bears were down their top two cornerbacks and best safety against the Vikings, but there’s a chance Jaylon Johnson and Jaquan Brisker will be back for this week’s game. Still, Chicago doesn’t project too great against the pass because it has the worst pressure rate in the NFL.

The Bears’ ability to stop the run will also be contingent on an injured player potentially returning to the field. Chicago is far worse versus the rush when T.J. Edwards misses time. Edwards has been out the past two weeks, but he wasn’t placed on injured reserve, so perhaps he’ll return this Sunday.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Like the Bears, Pittsburgh’s secondary has been rocked by injuries. A number of safeties were sidelined, forcing Jalen Ramsey to move to the position. Then, a bunch of cornerbacks got hurt. I loved the Bengals for this reason last week, but Joe Flacco played like decrepit trash for some reason. As speculated earlier, perhaps that’s because he’s 40 and his body is breaking down.

Nevertheless, the Bears would project well against Pittsburgh’s defensive backfield, but Darius Slay should at least be back from his concussion. The Steelers generate much more quarterback pressure than the Bears, so Caleb Williams seems to have a tougher matchup than his counterparts in this game.

The Bears will be able to move the chains on the ground, regardless of who is on the field. The Steelers are 22nd versus the rush, and we know that Ben Johnson loves to run the ball, so D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai figure to perform on a high level.

RECAP: I’d be willing to take a shot on the Steelers if the Bears continue to have injuries to their defensive backs and linebackers. I made this line Chicago -1.5, so Pittsburgh +3 looks mildly appealing. However, if Johnson and Edwards return, the Steelers won’t have any positive matchups.

Otherwise, I don’t imagine that I’ll be betting this game. Both teams are severely overrated, and while Chicago might have the best edge in this matchup with its rushing attack, laying three points with the Bears versus a competent opponent isn’t too appetizing.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Steelers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bears -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bears -1.5.

Computer Model: Bears -4.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

The Steelers are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 80% (5,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Steelers are 31-19 ATS on the road off a home division win the previous 50 instances.

Mike Tomlin is 65-38 ATS as an underdog.

Aaron Rodgers is 138-103* ATS since 2009. ???

Aaron Rodgers is 33-26 ATS as an underdog. ???

Opening Line: Bears -1.5.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: .