2025 NFL Picks – Week 12: Jaguars at Cardinals

The Matchup. Edge: None.

Video of the Week: I posted one of these recently, but this is another YouTube relationship skit:

One of the commenters said it best: “I don’t think I’ve ever been this enthralled by a YouTube skit.”

ARIZONA OFFENSE: It’s hard to believe that the NFL single-game completions record-holder isn’t Tom Brady, or Peyton Manning, or Patrick Mahomes, or Joe Burrow. It’s Jacoby Brissett. The Arizona backup did this against the 49ers, albeit in garbage time. Sure, the Cardinals were getting blown out, but it was still an impressive feat. I find it unlikely that Kyler Murray could have accomplished this.

Brissett will continue to start for the Cardinals with Murray on injured reserve. He has an easy matchup in this contest and should be better when the game is still undecided. Though the Jaguars are able to generate consistent pressure with their edge rushers, they’re still 21st against the pass. Brissett probably won’t have Marvin Harrison Jr. available, but he’ll be able to move the chains consistently by connecting with Trey McBride and Michael Wilson, who had a monster performance versus the 49ers.

The Jaguars are better against the run than the pass, ranking 13th in that regard. They won’t have an issue clamping down on Arizona’s rushing attack because the Cardinals don’t run the ball very well.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Though the Jaguars prevailed in a blowout last week, they were hardly impressive while throwing the ball against the Chargers. Trevor Lawrence did a solid job of converting third downs in the second half, but struggled otherwise, particularly in the opening half.

This has been the Lawrence experience this season, as he’s been largely underwhelming. It hasn’t been entirely his fault – the Jaguars surrender the eighth-most pressures in the NFL, and his top two receivers have missed time – but those issues could continue to persist in this game. It’s unclear if Brian Thomas Jr. will be able to return from injury, and Arizona can generate some pressure with Calais Campbell and Josh Sweat.

Lawrence was able to lean on the run in the blowout victory against the Chargers. Doing so won’t be as effective in this game because the Cardinals are far better against the rush than the Chargers. They rank 12th, while the Chargers are 20th, so Travis Etienne and Bhayshul Tuten won’t pick up as many long gains on the ground.

RECAP: Despite the Jaguars being 6-4 and the Cardinals being 3-7, I consider these teams to be even. Arizona has just been incredibly unlucky in many of its games. Five of its losses could have gone the other way in the final minutes of those games. There’s a universe where the Cardinals are considered to be an upstart at 6-4, but variance has not gone their way. Conversely, the Jaguars have been more lucky than not. If you don’t believe me, consider their EPA rankings. The Jaguars are 21st in offense and 21st in defense, while the Cardinals are 20th in offense and 12th in defense.

With that in mind, I made the Cardinals a 1.5-point home favorite, yet they’re underdogs of 2.5. That’s not a substantial difference in the point spreads, and I wish we were getting the full +3, but I like the Cardinals in this game. Not only are we getting the equal team as a home underdog; we have them in a good spot because they’re coming off two losses, while the Jaguars enjoyed a blowout victory. The Jaguars have two divisional battles after this game, so I’m not sure if we’ll see them 100-percent focused for a non-conference opponent.

The Motivation. Edge: Cardinals.

The Jaguars, coming off a blowout victory, have two divisional games after this non-conference foe.

The Spread. Edge: Cardinals.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cardinals -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cardinals -1.5.

Computer Model: Cardinals -2.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 55% (5,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Jaguars are 69-116 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Jaguars are 23-56 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2007.

Cardinals are 52-34 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 since 2007.

Opening Line: Jaguars -2.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Dome.