NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 5, 2025 – Late Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2025): 9-2-1 (+$890)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2025): 9-7 (-$725)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2025): 7-9 (-$925)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2025): 6-10 (-$1,285)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2025): 6-10 (+$410)
2025 NFL Picks: 37-38-1 (-$1,635)

2024 NFL Picks: 144-136-12 (-$1,380)
NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Oct. 5, 11:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 5 NFL Picks – Early Games

The Matchup. Edge: Cardinals.

Video of the Week: I found this video oddly entertaining:

“I don’t make the rules, I’m not Chinese!”

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: The Titans have looked dreadful outside of some brief moments this year. They’re 0-4 and seem completely broken, especially offensively. They’ve scored 12, 19, 20, and 0 points through four weeks.

It must be noted, however, that the Titans have battled some elite defenses. The Broncos, Colts, Rams, and Texans are ranked 10th, eighth, third, and 14th, respectively, and let’s be real – Houston’s defense is better than 14. If you just make them ninth, that means Tennessee has faced nothing but top-10 defenses thus far. That’s an awful lot to ask for a rookie!

The problem is that the Cardinals are 11th in defensive EPA, so Cam Ward may have to wait a week to have offensive success. The Cardinals can get after the quarterback – 78 pressures through four games – so Ward will have issues behind his poor blocking unit. Tony Pollard will have better luck producing, but not if he’s trailing by a large deficit.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: While the Cardinals are 11th in defense, the Titans are 23rd. A big part of the problem for them is that they can’t generate heat on opposing quarterbacks. They have just 57 pressures on the year, and a third of them are from Jeffery Simmons.

Arizona protects Kyler Murray fairly well, so Murray will be able to dissect a poor secondary with ease. It might help that he and Marvin Harrison Jr. developed a rhythm in the second half of the Thursday game.

As if the inability to generate quarterback pressure wasn’t enough, the Titans also haven’t been able to stop the run since T’Vondre Sweat suffered an injury. James Conner is out, but Trey Benson is a talented back who could put together a terrific performance.

RECAP: The Cardinals are the easiest team in the NFL to handicap. They can’t beat good teams whatsoever, but they sit on the bad teams. They led by double digits in the fourth quarters of the New Orleans and Carolina games. They were up 27-3 versus the Panthers, but fell asleep at the wheel and allowed a back-door cover.

Could they do this again? Possibly, but the difference is that the Cardinals are coming off a loss. They’ll be focused, especially given that they’ve had extra time to prepare for this game.

This may seem like a high number to back the Cardinals, but I think it’s been made that way to keep from backing Arizona. Tennessee +8 may look very appealing, but this is a team that just lost 26-0 to the Texans, who are arguably worse than the Cardinals.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Cardinals won’t have Trey Benson, but that won’t keep me from betting them. Running back is one position where teams can find replacements very easily.

SATURDAY NOTES: There’s a chance the Cardinals could have top cornerback Will Johnson and Will Hernandez back from injury, while the Titans will be missing J.C. Latham again. Arizona looks great once again.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m hoping we get a -7 available, but I’m not counting on it. I’m seeing -7 -118 at Bookmaker, which is under consideration.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Cardinals will have top cornerback Will Johnson and guard Will Hernandez back from injury. The sharps have not touched this game. The best line is -7.5 -105 at BetMGM. However, you can get a 50-percent profit boost at FanDuel, which you can turn -6.5 -150 into -6.5 +100. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Cardinals.

The Cardinals are coming off a loss on national TV.

The Spread. Edge: .

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cardinals -9.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cardinals -8.

Computer Model: Cardinals -9.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

Big lean on the Cardinals.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 72% (103,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Titans.

Cardinals are 6-16 ATS as favorites of 7.5 or more the previous 22 instances.

Opening Line: Cardinals -8.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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Oh, and my other book is still available as well:

In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: This is not a good matchup for the Seahawks. They love running the ball, after all. In fact, they fired last year’s offensive coordinator because he didn’t call enough running plays.

So, what makes this a tough matchup for Seattle? There is no better team against the run than the Buccaneers. I keep mentioning this each week concerning the props, but they haven’t allowed a 50-yard rusher since early December 2024. Vita Vea dominates the trenches and prevents runners from ever seeing daylight. He’s why the Buccaneers have clamped down on the likes of Bijan Robinson, Christian McCaffrey, and Saquon Barkley in that span.

Sam Darnold will have to do much more of the work this week in long-yardage situations, and that’s not ideal because his offensive line has some serious pass-protection flaws. The Buccaneers have 96 pressures through four weeks, so they’ll be able to hound Darnold and force some turnovers and punts.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Buccaneers won’t be able to run much either. First of all, Bucky Irving suffered an injury against the Eagles, and his status, as of Tuesday afternoon, is unknown. Second, the Seahawks have a stout front that will prevent the Buccaneers from getting anything on the ground.

Like Darnold, Baker Mayfield will have to do more on his own. It would be ideal for him if he had Mike Evans at his disposal, but the future Hall of Famer is dealing with his annual hamstring injury. Emeka Egbuka has been a monster and should continue to be so, but he doesn’t have the best matchup. Chris Godwin, meanwhile, looks like a shell of his former self.

Something else that hurts Mayfield is the pressure he’ll inevitably see in this contest. The Seahawks have one of the best pass rushes in the NFL; they’ve generated 92 pressures in four games. Tristan Wirfs’ return last week will have a huge impact on this game, though it must be noted that the Buccaneers are still missing two starting offensive linemen.

RECAP: I don’t have a strong opinion on this game, but I’m leaning toward the Buccaneers for a couple of reasons. First, I don’t like the aforementioned poor matchup for Darnold. Mayfield doesn’t have a good matchup either, but I trust Mayfield more than Darnold.

Second, the spot certainly favors Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers are coming off an ugly loss – the final score is not indicative of how the game played – while the Seahawks could be fat and happy off the Thursday night win.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Buccaneers have a lot of players who haven’t practiced yet. We’ll see how the rest of the week plays out with their injuries.

PLAYER PROPS: I keep talking about how dominant the Buccaneers are against the run. They haven’t given up 50 rushing yards to any back since early December 2024. If Bijan Robinson, Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, and Breece Hall couldn’t get there, Kenneth Walker won’t either, especially with his time share with Zach Charbonnet. The best number is under 50.5 rushing yards -115 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: Both teams have unexpected injuries in their secondary. The Buccaneers won’t have Jamel Dean, while the Seahawks will be without Devon Witherspoon and Julian Love. I still have a slight lean to the Buccaneers.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Still no opinion on this game. It’s the only one in the 4 p.m. window we will not be betting.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s no sharp action on this game. If you like the Buccaneers, the best line is +3.5 -105 at ESPNBet.

The Motivation. Edge: Buccaneers.

The Seahawks are coming off a win on national TV with extra time. The Buccaneers just had an ugly loss.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Seahawks -5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -1.5.

Computer Model: Seahawks -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.

The Buccaneers are a publicly backed road dog.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 68% (115,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Road Team is 146-100 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Seahawks are 61-48 ATS as home favorites since 2007.

Opening Line: Seahawks -1.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Sunny, 61 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Lions.

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DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions have rebounded nicely since their opening-week loss to the Packers. Their offense looked dysfunctional in that blowout loss, but they’ve been much better since the Week 1 debacle.

There’s no reason to think that Detroit will slow down at all in this game. The Lions, after all, will be battling one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Cincinnati can’t do anything well aside from rush the passer with Trey Hendrickson. This won’t be much of an issue for Jared Goff because he’ll be protected very well on the edge once again.

Besides, Goff may not need to do much. The Bengals have shown a complete inability to stop the run. J.K. Dobbins just rushed for 100 yards against them, so imagine what Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery will be able to accomplish.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Everyone knew the Bengals wouldn’t be able to stop anyone this year, but everyone counted on Joe Burrow to engage most teams in a shootout. This wasn’t possible, however, and not just because of Burrow’s injury. The Cincinnati offensive line is dreadful and cannot protect whatsoever.

The Lions just smothered Lamar Jackson two weeks ago. They’ll be able to do the same to Jake Browning, as the Cincinnati front will have no answer for Aidan Hutchinson. Browning will likely be forced into some turnovers, just like Joe Flacco was against Detroit last week.

The Bengals won’t be able to turn to the run either. The Lions have the No. 2 ground defense in the NFL, so they’ll be able to put the clamps on Chase Brown.

RECAP: We’ve made a lot of money fading the Bengals all year. We’ve had huge plays against them every single week, and we’re 3-1 using that strategy. We’d be 4-0 if it wasn’t for that ridiculous ending at the end of the Jacksonville game.

I’m going to continue to fade the Bengals until further notice. They’re simply way too outmatched on both sides of the ball. Their defense can’t stop anything, while their offensive line can’t block against teams that can generate a consistent pass rush.

I wish the Lions had gotten upset last week, which would make them an outstanding play. Still, the Lions look great enough for us to bet at least three units.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I like that this line moved off -10.5, which is a very bullish indicator for the Lions covering this spread.

PLAYER PROPS: Chase Brown has seven receptions in his previous two games, and yet his receptions prop in this game is just 2.5. Jake Browning is under siege so often that he has to dump off passes to Brown. The best number is over 2.5 receptions -130 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Lions have a couple of questionable key players in Taylor Decker and Kerby Joseph. Decker didn’t practice at all this week, but that was the case last week, and he ended up playing. Joseph, meanwhile, was able to return to a limited practice on Friday, so there’s a chance he’ll be able to suit up.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I forgot to note that the Lions have the Chiefs coming up next, so this could be a look-ahead alert. I’m dropping this to two units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Taylor Decker is out, but I don’t think that’ll matter too much against this dreadful Cincinnati defense. The sharps may disagree, however, because they are on Cincinnati. The best line is Detroit -8.5 -110 at ESPNBet.

The Motivation. Edge: Bengals.

The Lions battle the Chiefs next week.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Lions -13.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Lions -7.5.

Computer Model: Lions -10.

The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 85% (140,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Lions -7.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Sunny, 84 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Chargers.

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WASHINGTON OFFENSE: There are some major injury question marks for both teams entering this game. Beginning with the Redskins, we don’t know if they’ll be with Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin this week. The best I can give you is that a Daniels fan account said that he’s expected to return, but that doesn’t mean anything. McLaurin, meanwhile, is week to week, so he probably won’t be available because this would only be his second absence.

Marcus Mariota had one good performance and one shaky showing thus far, which tracks based on the level of competition. The Raiders have a poor defense, so Mariota was able to dissect them with ease. Conversely, the Falcons rank in the top 10 of EPA, so Mariota naturally had a greater issue moving the chains against them. The Chargers are sixth in defensive EPA, so Mariota will have similar issues.

Daniels, however, would normally give the Redskins a better chance to score. However, he may not be 100 percent upon return from injury. Daniels could struggle in his first week back in action, much like Brock Purdy did versus Jacksonville this past week.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The Chargers have injury issues of their own. They suffered a major loss last week on the eighth offensive snap when Joe Alt was carted off the field with an ankle sprain. He’s expected to be out for several weeks. With Rashawn Slater already sidelined, the Chargers couldn’t block the Giants whatsoever. Justin Herbert threw two interceptions while under heavy pressure, handing the Giants 11 free points on short fields.

Though Slater and Alt won’t be available this week, the Chargers can at least create a game plan during the week to counter this blocking issue. They’ll need to do so because the Redskins have logged 81 pressures through two weeks.

The Chargers can counter by establishing Omarion Hampton, who is coming off a breakout game versus the Giants. The Redskins were just gashed by Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, so perhaps Hampton can pick up where the two Atlanta backs left off last week.

RECAP: I can’t give you a concrete pick just yet because we don’t know Daniels’ status. I imagine I’ll be heavy on the Chargers if Mariota starts again, provided this spread isn’t too large. If it’s Daniels, I still may be on the Chargers, depending on any news we hear from him in practice.

Check back later for an update!

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Redskins have some good news on the injury report with Jayden Daniels and Sam Cosmi practicing fully. Given that Daniels is already full in practice, I’m going to cancel my bet here because there’s a good chance Daniels is 100 percent.

SATURDAY NOTES: Jayden Daniels and Deebo Samuel will play, while Terry McLaurin and Sam Cosmi will not. As mentioned earlier, I’m not expecting Daniels to be 100 percent against a Charger team that will be looking to bounce back from their ugly loss to the Giants.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m planning on having three units on the Chargers. It looks like the sharps are betting them as well.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have bet the Chargers at -2.5, but not at -3. You can still get a -2.5 line, albeit for -122 at FanDuel. It’s worth paying up to -127 for a three in the NFL. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Chargers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chargers -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chargers -3.

Computer Model: Chargers -7.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on San Angeles: 55% (108,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

Jim Harbaugh is 12-4 ATS after a loss, excluding 2014.

Opening Line: Chargers -2.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

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BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Bills have struggled to put their previous two opponents away, with the games against the Dolphins and Saints being close. The offense hasn’t been an issue, though the unit was a bit slowed down by the absence of right tackle Spencer Brown. The Patriots don’t get after the quarterback very well – 65 pressures through four games – so Josh Allen will have plenty of time in the pocket on Sunday night, even if Brown is sidelined again.

The Patriots aren’t particularly great against the run. They rank in the middle of the pack, so Allen should be able to lean on James Cook, who figures to continue his monster 2025 campaign.

One area in which the Patriots have improved lately is in pass coverage, thanks to Christian Gonzalez returning from injury. Gonzalez wasn’t even that great against the Panthers, but his presence certainly helped. The problem in this regard is that Allen has a myriad of weapons at his disposal, so he won’t have to worry about Gonzalez erasing one particular receiver.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The source of the Bills’ recent struggles to cover the spread stems from the defense. Matt Milano and Ed Oliver being sidelined has been huge. Oliver is the team’s top interior force, while Milano is the heart and soul of the defense.

The Bills are far worse against the run when Milano is sidelined, so that doesn’t bode well against the Patriots, who love to run the football. Of course, New England would be much better at that if they utilized their best running back, TreVeyon Henderson, but the coaching staff is clueless about the situation. Making up for that is Drake Maye’s ability to scramble, which will give Buffalo some fits.

Maye has been great so far, but this is his biggest test to date. He might have a chance to succeed aerially versus Buffalo, given that Spencer Rattler and Tua Tagovailoa have performed well the past two weeks.

RECAP: The Bills have been a money pit the past two weeks, siphoning money from the public. Casuals are eagerly willing to bet them because they’re perceived to be the best team in football. However, Buffalo has had issues covering the spread because of the absences of Oliver and Milano.

It remains to be seen if Oliver and Milano will return. If they do, the Bills might give us a nice buy-low opportunity because they’d be favored by more if they had covered the spread against Miami and New Orleans, which they likely would have done if those two players were healthy. If they’re out again, that makes things more difficult. While the Bills haven’t covered the past two weeks, they’ve been able to win by double digits, which will be good enough to beat the number versus New England.

We’ll see what happens with the Oliver and Milano injuries, but I’m currently leaning toward siding with the Bills.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It sounds like Matt Milano has a chance to return for this game. I will continue to side with the Bills if that’s the case.

SATURDAY NOTES: We still have no news on the three Buffalo questionable players. Matt Milano, Ed Oliver, and Spencer Brown continued to be limited in practice. They were limited every single day, and all three are listed as questionable.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Buffalo’s injuries will dictate where we go with this game. Check back around 7:45 p.m. Eastern for updates.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I can’t get to a bet tonight after that utter bulls**t we saw in the Cardinals game. Week after week, it’s horrible bad beat after horrible bad beat, with no good luck in sight. When will it end? Anyway, Ed Oliver is out, but Matt Milano will play. The sharps are on the Patriots, but today is a rough day for the sharps. The best line is Bills -7.5 -105 at ESPNBet and FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Patriots.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -8.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bills -10.

Computer Model: Bills -6.

The Vegas. Edge: Patriots.

Late money on the Bills.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 68% (184,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

History: Bills have won 8 of the last 9 meetings, excluding when they sat their starters.

Opening Line: Bills -10.5.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 65 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Jacksonville, home of the Jacksonville Tigers. Tonight, the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Jacksonville Jag-wires where they look to stop Maurice Drew-Jones. Guys, I made a statement last week about the potential of me being assassinated, and it seems as though the crazy non-Eagle fan shooters who are Cowboy fans who sometimes identify as Giant fans went after one of our former colleagues, Matt Millen.

Emmitt: Thanks, Matt. Matt Miller are the guy who stuff sausage into his bum, which I think real weirdoness until I were bored one night and decide to try it myselfs. Guys, I has to say that this was a great expriencism for me. Some might even call it nerdvana.

Reilly: Emmitt, let’s just not go that route. We haven’t had talk about people’s backsides being penetrated by kielbasas for quite some time, and I’d like to keep it that way. But if you guys didn’t hear, Matt Millen got shot at, and the bullet struck the neck of his kielbasa that he was holding. He was getting ready to ram it into a 100-percent USDA Man, but then the bullet came, and the rest is history.

Tollefson: Reilly, I never understood why Matt Millen was infatuated by 100-percent USDA Men. Do 100-percent USDA Men know how to cook and clean naked for you after you kidnap them? No! And it’s not like they’re even easier to fight off. If kidnapping them was simple, I could maybe see myself doing it, but no, the only gender of human that doesn’t deserve to wear clothing is women. I find it repulsive that they’re even allowed to wear undergarments.

Reilly: Tolly, women have to wear clothes because if there was a naked woman, the retinas in my eyes were burn out, and then I would start gushing blood from my brain. That’s what Mother says will happen to me if I look at a naked woman except for Mother, so it must be true. Speaking of women I would like to look at naked, but can’t because I’d suffer a seizure, it’s Clarissa Thomas giving us the latest report from the sideline. Clarissa, what are you reporting, and please don’t flash your boobs at me, or I’ll turn to stone, according to Mother.

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Matt. It’s funny that you should mention turning to stone, because that’s exactly what happened to Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith. He looked at Kate Fagan’s face for too long and turned to stone, so now Patrick Mahomes will make the long-awaited first start of his career. Back to you, Mark.

Reilly: Wait, I heard of that Melhommes guy. I would have drafted him on my fantasy team but I made sure to get nothing but players on my Philadelphia Eagles. I’m an expert fantasy player because I haven’t ever lost a game. I control every team in my league, so I can make enough trades to make my team the best team possible. But guys, this is serious. If Matt Millen can get shot in his kielbasa, anyone can get shot. Mother was right to keep me on a Zoom call last week! Soon, the Cowboys-Giants trans fans will be coming after me, too! Mina, you look like you want to say something. Are you afraid of getting shot, too?

Mina Kimes: No, I’m not afraid to get shot. Do you know why? Because I am oppressed as an Asian female in the macho man football culture. Male football fans are sexist and anti-Asian, so they would never shoot someone like me. If we lived in a just society, where everyone was accepted for who they are, I would have just as good of a chance to be shot as the white male NFL analysts, but because I’m an Asian female in the industry, any potential assassins will continue to ignore and disrespect me!

Reilly: Are you sure people know that you’re Asian? You’ve said it like a million times already, but I don’t think most people know what an Asian person is. Sarah Spain, what do you think about Mina Kimes not being shot because she’s apparently Asian?

Sarah Spain: I’M NOT GOING TO GET SHOT EITHER BECAUSE I’M A FEMALE SPORTS ANALYST AND NO ONE RESPECTS ME, WHY DOES NO ONE RESPECT ME, REEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!

Mina Kimes: I hear you, sister! How horrible for us that no one wants to assassinate us! If only we were respected more, we could get assassinated, too!

Reilly: Guys, I think your mothers took a bit too much Tylenol when you were pregnant. Mother says Tylenol is the devil. Anyway, we have an audio clip of the Matt Millen attempted assassin. Here it is:

Assassin: My name is Colterbean, and I’m a Bears fan who identifies as a Bengals fan. My fan pronouns are bear down/who dey. I tried to shoot Matt Millen because he’s a fascist, which means “orange guy who hurt my feelings.” Matt Millen isn’t orange, but he really hurt my feelings, so I had no choice but to shoot him. I missed my target, but I still hit him where it hurts – his precious kielbasa. I look forward to all other trans fans celebrating me on social media.

Reilly: New Daddy, I’m glad you’re here so you can protect me from potential trans fan assassins. You’ll protect me, right!?

Jay Cutler: Let me think about it, no.

Reilly: New Daddy, I know you’re just kidding around. With you here, no one is going to assassinate Kevin Reilly.

Charles Davis: Kevin, let’s talk about famous people who were assassinated, Kevin. Let’s start with Matt Millen’s kielbasa, Kevin. Sad to see the kielbasa go, Kevin. There’s also Abraham Lincoln, Kevin. What about John F. Kennedy, Kevin? Who could forget Martin Luther King Jr., Kevin? Let’s chat about Mahatma Gandhi, Kevin. Why not pivot to Archduke Franz Ferdinand, Kevin? Of course, there’s Charlie Kirk, Kevin. Take a gander at William McKinley, Kevin. And then there’s Kevin Reilly, Kevin, but wait, that’s my bad, because Kevin Reilly isn’t famous, Kevin.

Reilly: As if anyone has ever heard of you, you loser, Charles Davis! Believe me, everyone would cry if I got assassinated, especially girls whom I can never see naked because I’d turn to stone, Charles Davis! We’ll be right back after this!

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Chiefs looked much better offensively versus Baltimore than they did in their previous three games. This was only natural, given that they were able to get Xavier Worthy back from injury. Worthy got hurt on the opening drive in Brazil, causing the Chiefs to be stagnant offensively because they had no real weapons. Worthy is obviously a dynamic threat, and his presence opens things up for everyone.

Things will be even better for the Chiefs once Rashee Rice returns in Week 7, but Worthy is good enough for now, especially against the Jaguars. If you look at the numbers, you’ll see that the Jaguars are second in defensive EPA, but this is complete nonsense. The quarterbacks they’ve battled so far this year are Bryce Young, Jake Browning, C.J. Stroud with no protection, and a hobbled Brock Purdy. It’s safe to say that Patrick Mahomes is far superior to those signal-callers, especially now that he has a threat at receiver.

The one concern I still have for the Chiefs is pass protection, especially against a Jacksonville front seven that has registered 84 pressures through four games. Josh Simmons has shown some promise in his rookie year, but he’s not ready to protect Mahomes from Jacksonville’s dynamic edge rushers.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Speaking of not being ready for the big stage, it’s fair to wonder if Trevor Lawrence can perform well against Steve Spagnuolo’s defense. That’s because he’s never done that. The Chiefs have owned Lawrence, who was just 22-of-41 for 216 garbage-time yards against them in the previous meeting.

I had some hope for Lawrence that he’d improve under Liam Coen this season, but that hasn’t happened. Instead, Coen has just been yelling at everyone he sees, likely because he’s frustrated that he can’t improve his quarterback or figure out how to use his No. 2 overall pick. Lawrence has led the team to a 3-1 record, but he’s been extremely underwhelming with missed throws and turnovers.

The one element of Jacksonville’s offense that is working well is the running game. Travis Etienne has shockingly been productive this year, but keep in mind that no team the Jaguars have battled this year is ranked better than 16th in run defense. And yes, that includes the Texans, who are 20th versus the rush.

RECAP: The rule with the Chiefs is that they do the bare minimum to win regular-season games. Regular-season games, after all, have become old hat for them. They care about Super Bowls; not September and October wins.

The good thing about this game for the Chiefs is that the bare minimum could include a cover. The spread is only three, so the Chiefs could win by 3-7 points and get the ATS victory or push.

This spread, by the way, doesn’t seem correct. If Kansas City’s offensive woes are mostly resolved as a result of Worthy’s return, then the Chiefs should be favored by more than just a field goal. I made this line Kansas City -5.5. Perhaps -3 is a trap, but it could be that the public is brainwashed into believing the Jaguars are a good team because they’re 3-1.

One of the dumbest quotes ever uttered by a brilliant football coach was when Bill Parcells said, “You are what your record is.” That is complete nonsense, and a team like the Jaguars is perfect evidence of that. If the records indicate how good these teams are, then the Jaguars are apparently better than the Chiefs, which is just ridiculous. Jacksonville has had the luxury of battling bad and flawed teams, while the Chiefs have taken on the Chargers (at full strength), Eagles, and Ravens. If the Chiefs had the Jaguars’ schedule, and vice versa, I believe the Chiefs would be 3-1 or 4-0, while the Jaguars would be 1-3 or 0-4. What would this spread be in that instance? Chiefs -6, maybe? If so, then Kansas City is the right side.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: If you like the Chiefs, consider locking them in at -3 -118 on FanDuel.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Jaguars have a number of questionable players right now, including Travon Walker and several offensive linemen. We’ll have to see what the final injury report looks like.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Again, the injury report will be important. Check back around 7:30 p.m. Eastern on Monday for updates.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: We’re going with Xavier Worthy, who will be the focal point of Kansas City’s offense until Rashee Rice returns from suspension in Week 7. I like Worthy’s receptions more than yardage. The best number is over 4.5 receptions -123 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

Worthy will be part of our same-game parlay, which will be comprised of Worthy over 4.5 receptions, Dyami Brown over 2.5 receptions, and Patrick Mahomes under 21.5 rushing yards. This parlay is 30-percent boosted at BetMGM. This $25 parlay pays $149.63.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Jaguars won’t have Travon Walker available, which is a nice boost for Patrick Mahomes. The sharps haven’t seemed to care because they haven’t touched this game. I like the Chiefs at -3.5, but liked them more at -3. Unfortunately, I don’t see any -3s available. The best -3.5 is for +100 vig at ESPNBet, but you can boost the Chiefs up to +125 at FanDuel for up to $50. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

TOUCHDOWN SCORER: BetRivers has a $10 bonus bet offer for a first touchdown scorer. We’re going with Brenton Strange at +1900.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Chiefs.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -3.

Computer Model: Chiefs -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.

Growing money on the Chiefs.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 65% (272,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

Patrick Mahomes is 102-27 SU, 68-59 ATS (54-45 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Jaguars are 67-113 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Opening Line: Chiefs -3.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 76 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.