2025 NFL Picks – Week 5: Cowboys at Jets

The Matchup. Edge: None.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s three pieces of hate mail:

A bowl full of mush and a giant hair brush. I think those are the words.

Another reply to the same post:

I don’t understand what the insult would be. Clowns are funny. People like clowns. If someone calls me clown, I consider it to be a good thing.

Another post:

We got crushed on a bad beat, but Teddy Letterman doesn’t understand that on the count of being autistic.

DALLAS OFFENSE: Wow, what a performance by Dak Prescott. People may not remember the Sunday night game against the Packers when his career is over down the road, but it’ll go down as one of his best performances ever. Considering that he was down two offensive linemen and CeeDee Lamb, it was truly amazing that he was able to torch Green Bay’s renowned defense for 40 points amid Micah Parsons’ revenge game.

Prescott could have a tougher matchup in this game, only because the Jets will be able to use Sauce Gardner to blanket his lone dynamic downfield threat in George Pickens. However, we just saw what Darren Waller did to the Jets, so perhaps Dallas will exploit this liability with Jake Ferguson.

Speaking of liabilities, the Jets can’t stop the run at all, so perhaps this will be a Javonte Williams game. Williams has inexplicably found the fountain of youth after looking so dreadful in Denver the past few years.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: As great as Prescott was on Sunday night, the Cowboys defense was just as bad. Dallas has the worst defense in the NFL if you exclude Week 1, and it’s not even close.

Justin Fields, now another week removed from his concussion, will be able to do whatever he wants against the Cowboys. He’ll have some great connections with Garrett Wilson, who is enjoying a fantastic year thus far. Fields will also run circles around the inept linebackers, much like he did versus the Dolphins on Monday night.

Breece Hall also figures to have a solid game. The Cowboys are better against the run than the pass, but only by default. While they can’t stop aerial attacks at all, they’re 22nd versus the run, which isn’t terrible.

RECAP: It’s saying a lot that the Cowboys aren’t -3 over an 0-4 team after the offensive explosion they had on Sunday night. There’s so much money coming in on Dallas, and yet this line is not budging off -2.5. I assume this is because the sportsbooks know that the sharps are waiting for a Jets +3 line that they can hammer.

I like the Jets in this game. They’re 0-4, but they’ve lost three 50/50 games this year, as they easily could have beaten the Steelers, Buccaneers (with a backup quarterback), and the Dolphins. If they had gotten lucky and were 2-2, they wouldn’t be home underdogs.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys could be deflated off their Sunday night game where they threw the kitchen sink against the Packers. Backing teams coming off ties is generally a losing proposition anyway; teams following ties are 14-20 against the spread. It’s not a big sample size, but it makes sense that the energy would be low after an unsatisfying conclusion.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I think it’s saying a lot that despite the public money coming in on the Cowboys, this line still hasn’t moved off +2.5. I think the sportsbooks know the sharps will hammer the +3 if they can get it.

PLAYER PROPS: We keep betting Justin Fields’ over rushing prop, and we keep winning. Why stop now, especially against Dallas? The Cowboys have allowed significant rushing yardage to every quarterback they’ve battled this year. Jalen Hurts gained 62 rushing yards in the opener, so Fields can get to 50. The best number is over 49.5 rushing yards -113 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: Holy crap, Dallas’ injury report is brutal. The Cowboys were down two offensive linemen last week, and now they’ll be without three for sure, and perhaps four. Their best blocker, Tyler Smith, hasn’t practiced all week because of a knee. The defense, meanwhile, which is already terrible, will be without a couple of starters. I’m going to increase my unit count to three on the Jets.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Tyler Smith is active, which is a disappointment. However, he didn’t practice all week, so the Cowboys might just be activating him out of desperation, given the status of the rest of the offensive line. The sharps continue to pound the Jets. The best line is +1 -109 at Bookmaker. However, BetMGM has a 20-percent profit boost, which we’ll use for this game.

The Motivation. Edge: Jets.

The Cowboys could be in a letdown spot.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Jets -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -1.5.

Computer Model: Cowboys -3.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Tons of action on the Cowboys early in the week.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 51% (132,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Pick.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Sunny, 83 degrees. Light wind.