2025 NFL Picks – Week 5: Raiders at Colts

The Matchup. Edge: Colts.

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INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: What’s with the Colts and always dropping the ball shy of the goal line? They always do this! Jonathan Taylor cost the Colts a win in the infamous 2024 Battle of the Horses, and Adonai Mitchell, who saw Taylor do it in real time, repeated the blunder against the Rams. There’s a good chance the Colts would have beaten the Rams had Mitchell not screwed up.

The Colts should be able to get back on track in this matchup against a dreadful Raiders defense. The one thing the Raiders do well is rush the passer with Maxx Crosby, but it’s not like they have a devastating pass rush otherwise (65 pressures in four games.) Daniel Jones is well protected and can move around. He’ll be able to locate his receivers, who won’t have an issue getting open versus the Las Vegas secondary.

Of course, Jones will want to lean on Taylor. The Raiders are ranked somewhat highly against ground attacks, but between battling the Patriots, Redskins and Bears through three games, it’s not like they’ve gone up against elite rushing attacks.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: While the Raiders aren’t very good defensively, their biggest problem is their pass protection. Their offensive line was already horrendous, and now it’ll be without Kolton Miller, who suffered an ankle sprain versus the Bears.

The Colts will be able to take advantage of this liability, given that they’ve accumulated 80 pressures on the year thus far. Geno Smith will be forced into more turnovers, as he’s become a reckless quarterback despite ESPN DEI hire Mina Kimes proclaiming that he’s a top-10 quarterback in the wake of the offseason trade.

Ashton Jeanty is adversely affected by the poor offensive line as well. Jeanty is coming off his first great NFL game, but he’ll continue to see contact behind the line of scrimmage from a Colts defense that ranks third against the run.

RECAP: This is a great spot for the Colts. They’re coming off a loss to the Rams and will be looking to redeem themselves after basically throwing the game away with the Mitchell play. They get to take on a jetlagged Raiders team, which has inexplicably gone from playing on the East Coast (New England), to going back to Las Vegas, to going back to the East Coast (Washington), to going back to Las Vegas, to going back to the East Coast (Indianapolis is not quite the East Coast, but it’s still the Eastern Time Zone.) On the plus side, they’re accumulating some major air mile points, so maybe they’ll get a free vacation, or something.

Seriously though, I don’t know if we’ve ever seen a schedule like this, but the Raiders have to be exhausted from all of this traveling. They were already behind the eight ball enough by having to go up against a superior team without their left tackle.

Despite the lopsided matchup, the Miller injury, and horrible traveling for the Raiders, the Colts are only -6.5. This line should be in the -8 to -9.5 range, so we’re getting a solid bargain with Indianapolis.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s nice to see that the Colts have moved to -7 in some sportsbooks. I was concerned about this line remaining at -6.5, which would have indicated sharp action on the Raiders.

SATURDAY NOTES: As if the Raiders weren’t in rough shape already with their brutal travel schedule and the injury to Kolton Miller, they may now not have Brock Bowers, who failed to practice on Thursday or Friday. The Colts look great.

LOCKED IN: There’s a report indicating that Brock Bowers is trending toward not playing. We might see this spread move to -7.5 as a result. Let’s lock in Colts -7 -108 at Bookmaker or BetRivers. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The reports ended up being true, as Brock Bowers is inactive. So is Eric Stokes. The sharps are on the Colts. The best line is -7 -110 at FanDuel, but we locked this in at -7 -108 at Bookmaker, which currently lists Indianapolis at -114.

The Motivation. Edge: Colts.

The Colts are coming off a loss, while the Raiders will be extremely jetlagged.

The Spread. Edge: Colts.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Colts -8.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Colts -6.5.

Computer Model: Colts -9.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Colts.

Action on the Colts.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 69% (105,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

Pete Carroll is 21-12 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Pete Carroll is 17-11 ATS in 1 p.m. East Coast games

Opening Line: Colts -6.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Dome.