2025 NFL Picks – Week 5: Buccaneers at Seahawks

The Matchup. Edge: None.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now. Besides, I wrote a similar-type book is called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:

Oh, and my other book is still available as well:

In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: This is not a good matchup for the Seahawks. They love running the ball, after all. In fact, they fired last year’s offensive coordinator because he didn’t call enough running plays.

So, what makes this a tough matchup for Seattle? There is no better team against the run than the Buccaneers. I keep mentioning this each week concerning the props, but they haven’t allowed a 50-yard rusher since early December 2024. Vita Vea dominates the trenches and prevents runners from ever seeing daylight. He’s why the Buccaneers have clamped down on the likes of Bijan Robinson, Christian McCaffrey, and Saquon Barkley in that span.

Sam Darnold will have to do much more of the work this week in long-yardage situations, and that’s not ideal because his offensive line has some serious pass-protection flaws. The Buccaneers have 96 pressures through four weeks, so they’ll be able to hound Darnold and force some turnovers and punts.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Buccaneers won’t be able to run much either. First of all, Bucky Irving suffered an injury against the Eagles, and his status, as of Tuesday afternoon, is unknown. Second, the Seahawks have a stout front that will prevent the Buccaneers from getting anything on the ground.

Like Darnold, Baker Mayfield will have to do more on his own. It would be ideal for him if he had Mike Evans at his disposal, but the future Hall of Famer is dealing with his annual hamstring injury. Emeka Egbuka has been a monster and should continue to be so, but he doesn’t have the best matchup. Chris Godwin, meanwhile, looks like a shell of his former self.

Something else that hurts Mayfield is the pressure he’ll inevitably see in this contest. The Seahawks have one of the best pass rushes in the NFL; they’ve generated 92 pressures in four games. Tristan Wirfs’ return last week will have a huge impact on this game, though it must be noted that the Buccaneers are still missing two starting offensive linemen.

RECAP: I don’t have a strong opinion on this game, but I’m leaning toward the Buccaneers for a couple of reasons. First, I don’t like the aforementioned poor matchup for Darnold. Mayfield doesn’t have a good matchup either, but I trust Mayfield more than Darnold.

Second, the spot certainly favors Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers are coming off an ugly loss – the final score is not indicative of how the game played – while the Seahawks could be fat and happy off the Thursday night win.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Buccaneers have a lot of players who haven’t practiced yet. We’ll see how the rest of the week plays out with their injuries.

PLAYER PROPS: I keep talking about how dominant the Buccaneers are against the run. They haven’t given up 50 rushing yards to any back since early December 2024. If Bijan Robinson, Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, and Breece Hall couldn’t get there, Kenneth Walker won’t either, especially with his time share with Zach Charbonnet. The best number is under 50.5 rushing yards -115 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: Both teams have unexpected injuries in their secondary. The Buccaneers won’t have Jamel Dean, while the Seahawks will be without Devon Witherspoon and Julian Love. I still have a slight lean to the Buccaneers.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Still no opinion on this game. It’s the only one in the 4 p.m. window we will not be betting.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s no sharp action on this game. If you like the Buccaneers, the best line is +3.5 -105 at ESPNBet.

The Motivation. Edge: Buccaneers.

The Seahawks are coming off a win on national TV with extra time. The Buccaneers just had an ugly loss.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Seahawks -5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -1.5.

Computer Model: Seahawks -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

The Buccaneers are a publicly backed road dog.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 68% (115,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Road Team is 146-100 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Seahawks are 61-48 ATS as home favorites since 2007.

Opening Line: Seahawks -1.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Sunny, 61 degrees. Light wind.