2025 NFL Picks – Week 5: Texans at Ravens

The Matchup. Edge: Texans.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: I’m going to date myself and my Web site here, but back when I first began handicapping the NFL on WalterFootball.com in 1999, I recall that sportsbooks would sometimes take forever to post point spreads if a quarterback was uncertain to play. One specific game stood out to me. It was 2003, and the Jaguars were set to battle the Texans. Houston was unlikely to have David Carr or its second-string quarterback available, but there’s a chance they’d be able to give it a go. Because the sportsbooks had no clue who would play quarterback, they didn’t post a line until a couple of hours prior to kickoff. Houston’s quarterback ended up being David Ragone. The Jaguars won 27-0.

I was reminded of this Sunday night because I didn’t see a spread in the Ravens game. Sportsbooks nowadays will always post a spread because there’s so much competition, but no one had anything on the Ravens because of Lamar Jackson’s uncertainty. That’s how important Jackson is for the Ravens. He was considered the MVP favorite for a reason, but now the spread says that he will be out with a hamstring injury because Baltimore is a small home underdog. The advance line was Baltimore -9.5!

Cooper Rush is an OK backup, but unless he’s battling a soft opponent, he needs everything around him to be ideal to succeed. The Texans are certainly not soft, as they have a talented defense that just pitched a shutout. The Ravens have had some blocking issues in recent weeks, and that was with Jackson and his mobility. Rush will obviously not be able to escape the pocket. His only hope is relying on Derrick Henry, who might actually be able to get some yardage because the Texans, while stellar against the pass, have allowed decent yardage to opposing backs.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: If Jackson happened to be the only major injured player on the roster, the Ravens could perhaps rally around him. It looked like they’d have a strong defense heading into the year, after all, thanks to the number of impressive additions they made during the offseason.

Unfortunately for the Ravens, Jackson is far from the only injured player on the team. The Ravens were already down Justin Madubuike and Kyle Van Noy heading into Week 4, and now we know they won’t have Madubuike because he’s out for the year. We don’t know about Van Noy’s status, but Baltimore lost a ridiculous number of players to injury against the Texans. Roquan Smith and Marlon Humphrey will be out for several weeks. Nate Wiggins was carted off into the locker room with an elbow injury.

Baltimore’s defense is a mess right now, but is it bad enough for even the Texans to have a chance? I think so, for two reasons. First, Houston’s major problem is pass protection, but the Ravens don’t generate pressure on the quarterback. Thanks to Madubuike’s absence, they have just 65 pressures through four weeks, so C.J. Stroud might actually have a chance to locate downfield receivers in this game. Second, the Texans established Woody Marks, who gave the team a much-needed punch in the backfield. Marks, unlike Nick Chubb, is very explosive and can be a factor in the passing attack. We’ve seen the Ravens struggle against the run, so Marks should be able to perform well.

RECAP: I don’t understand how we can possibly back the Ravens unless they’re getting at least a field goal. This team is diminished. Not only is Jackson sidelined, but the team can’t pass protect or stop anyone because of the massive injuries on defense.

I especially hate this matchup for Rush. I like siding with reserve quarterbacks on good teams when they’re playing non-elite defenses, but the problem with that is Baltimore is no longer a good team because of all the injuries, and the Texans have elite talent on their defense. Rush even saw this Houston defense last year, and he was abysmal against them. Rush threw an interception and fumbled twice versus Houston. He threw for decent yardage, but that occurred in garbage time.

Siding with the Texans may not be appealing because of their record and poor blocking, but remember that they were very close to defeating the Rams and Buccaneers, two teams that are better than this current Baltimore roster. I don’t know if you’d consider the Jaguars better, but the Texans nearly beat them as well. In fact, Houston’s three defeats this year have all been by one score, so we know that they can at least keep this game close.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Take a look at Baltimore’s injury report if you get the chance. It’s sad. The one positive development is that Kyle Van Noy was limited in Wednesday’s practice, but there’s very little hope for the Ravens at the moment.

PLAYER PROPS: Derrick Henry’s rushing prop seems like it’s way too high. No running back has gained more than 71 rushing yards against the Texans this year, which includes Bucky Irving, Kyren Williams, and Travis Etienne. Henry needs to get to 89 to beat us, and that’ll be with Houston stacking the box. The best number is under 88.5 rushing yards -114 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Ravens aren’t as banged up as originally believed. Now, don’t get me wrong, Baltimore has a crap ton of injuries. However, Kyle Van Noy, Travis Jones, and Nate Wiggins will be able to play. Also, Ronnie Stanley had two limited practices to close out the week. I’m going to hop off this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Friday injury report wasn’t as bad as expected, but the two questionable players on that list – Ronnie Stanley, Kyle Hamilton – are both inactive. It’s pretty rough for Cooper Rush not to have Stanley against Houston’s pass rush. Naturally, the sharps are slamming the Texans. I can understand betting them, but taking such a pedestrian team as a road favorite doesn’t seem like a great proposition. If you want to tail the sharps, the best line is -2.5 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Texans.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Texans -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -9.5.

Computer Model: Texans -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Texans.

Tons of action on the Ravens despite the Lamar Jackson injury.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 76% (97,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Texans.

John Harbaugh is 15-7 ATS following a loss of 10+.

Opening Line: Ravens -9.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Sunny, 77 degrees. Light wind.