2025 NFL Picks – Week 5: Chiefs at Jaguars

The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Jacksonville, home of the Jacksonville Tigers. Tonight, the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Jacksonville Jag-wires where they look to stop Maurice Drew-Jones. Guys, I made a statement last week about the potential of me being assassinated, and it seems as though the crazy non-Eagle fan shooters who are Cowboy fans who sometimes identify as Giant fans went after one of our former colleagues, Matt Millen.

Emmitt: Thanks, Matt. Matt Miller are the guy who stuff sausage into his bum, which I think real weirdoness until I were bored one night and decide to try it myselfs. Guys, I has to say that this was a great expriencism for me. Some might even call it nerdvana.

Reilly: Emmitt, let’s just not go that route. We haven’t had talk about people’s backsides being penetrated by kielbasas for quite some time, and I’d like to keep it that way. But if you guys didn’t hear, Matt Millen got shot at, and the bullet struck the neck of his kielbasa that he was holding. He was getting ready to ram it into a 100-percent USDA Man, but then the bullet came, and the rest is history.

Tollefson: Reilly, I never understood why Matt Millen was infatuated by 100-percent USDA Men. Do 100-percent USDA Men know how to cook and clean naked for you after you kidnap them? No! And it’s not like they’re even easier to fight off. If kidnapping them was simple, I could maybe see myself doing it, but no, the only gender of human that doesn’t deserve to wear clothing is women. I find it repulsive that they’re even allowed to wear undergarments.

Reilly: Tolly, women have to wear clothes because if there was a naked woman, the retinas in my eyes were burn out, and then I would start gushing blood from my brain. That’s what Mother says will happen to me if I look at a naked woman except for Mother, so it must be true. Speaking of women I would like to look at naked, but can’t because I’d suffer a seizure, it’s Clarissa Thomas giving us the latest report from the sideline. Clarissa, what are you reporting, and please don’t flash your boobs at me, or I’ll turn to stone, according to Mother.

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Matt. It’s funny that you should mention turning to stone, because that’s exactly what happened to Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith. He looked at Kate Fagan’s face for too long and turned to stone, so now Patrick Mahomes will make the long-awaited first start of his career. Back to you, Mark.

Reilly: Wait, I heard of that Melhommes guy. I would have drafted him on my fantasy team but I made sure to get nothing but players on my Philadelphia Eagles. I’m an expert fantasy player because I haven’t ever lost a game. I control every team in my league, so I can make enough trades to make my team the best team possible. But guys, this is serious. If Matt Millen can get shot in his kielbasa, anyone can get shot. Mother was right to keep me on a Zoom call last week! Soon, the Cowboys-Giants trans fans will be coming after me, too! Mina, you look like you want to say something. Are you afraid of getting shot, too?

Mina Kimes: No, I’m not afraid to get shot. Do you know why? Because I am oppressed as an Asian female in the macho man football culture. Male football fans are sexist and anti-Asian, so they would never shoot someone like me. If we lived in a just society, where everyone was accepted for who they are, I would have just as good of a chance to be shot as the white male NFL analysts, but because I’m an Asian female in the industry, any potential assassins will continue to ignore and disrespect me!

Reilly: Are you sure people know that you’re Asian? You’ve said it like a million times already, but I don’t think most people know what an Asian person is. Sarah Spain, what do you think about Mina Kimes not being shot because she’s apparently Asian?

Sarah Spain: I’M NOT GOING TO GET SHOT EITHER BECAUSE I’M A FEMALE SPORTS ANALYST AND NO ONE RESPECTS ME, WHY DOES NO ONE RESPECT ME, REEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!

Mina Kimes: I hear you, sister! How horrible for us that no one wants to assassinate us! If only we were respected more, we could get assassinated, too!

Reilly: Guys, I think your mothers took a bit too much Tylenol when you were pregnant. Mother says Tylenol is the devil. Anyway, we have an audio clip of the Matt Millen attempted assassin. Here it is:

Assassin: My name is Colterbean, and I’m a Bears fan who identifies as a Bengals fan. My fan pronouns are bear down/who dey. I tried to shoot Matt Millen because he’s a fascist, which means “orange guy who hurt my feelings.” Matt Millen isn’t orange, but he really hurt my feelings, so I had no choice but to shoot him. I missed my target, but I still hit him where it hurts – his precious kielbasa. I look forward to all other trans fans celebrating me on social media.

Reilly: New Daddy, I’m glad you’re here so you can protect me from potential trans fan assassins. You’ll protect me, right!?

Jay Cutler: Let me think about it, no.

Reilly: New Daddy, I know you’re just kidding around. With you here, no one is going to assassinate Kevin Reilly.

Charles Davis: Kevin, let’s talk about famous people who were assassinated, Kevin. Let’s start with Matt Millen’s kielbasa, Kevin. Sad to see the kielbasa go, Kevin. There’s also Abraham Lincoln, Kevin. What about John F. Kennedy, Kevin? Who could forget Martin Luther King Jr., Kevin? Let’s chat about Mahatma Gandhi, Kevin. Why not pivot to Archduke Franz Ferdinand, Kevin? Of course, there’s Charlie Kirk, Kevin. Take a gander at William McKinley, Kevin. And then there’s Kevin Reilly, Kevin, but wait, that’s my bad, because Kevin Reilly isn’t famous, Kevin.

Reilly: As if anyone has ever heard of you, you loser, Charles Davis! Believe me, everyone would cry if I got assassinated, especially girls whom I can never see naked because I’d turn to stone, Charles Davis! We’ll be right back after this!

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Chiefs looked much better offensively versus Baltimore than they did in their previous three games. This was only natural, given that they were able to get Xavier Worthy back from injury. Worthy got hurt on the opening drive in Brazil, causing the Chiefs to be stagnant offensively because they had no real weapons. Worthy is obviously a dynamic threat, and his presence opens things up for everyone.

Things will be even better for the Chiefs once Rashee Rice returns in Week 7, but Worthy is good enough for now, especially against the Jaguars. If you look at the numbers, you’ll see that the Jaguars are second in defensive EPA, but this is complete nonsense. The quarterbacks they’ve battled so far this year are Bryce Young, Jake Browning, C.J. Stroud with no protection, and a hobbled Brock Purdy. It’s safe to say that Patrick Mahomes is far superior to those signal-callers, especially now that he has a threat at receiver.

The one concern I still have for the Chiefs is pass protection, especially against a Jacksonville front seven that has registered 84 pressures through four games. Josh Simmons has shown some promise in his rookie year, but he’s not ready to protect Mahomes from Jacksonville’s dynamic edge rushers.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Speaking of not being ready for the big stage, it’s fair to wonder if Trevor Lawrence can perform well against Steve Spagnuolo’s defense. That’s because he’s never done that. The Chiefs have owned Lawrence, who was just 22-of-41 for 216 garbage-time yards against them in the previous meeting.

I had some hope for Lawrence that he’d improve under Liam Coen this season, but that hasn’t happened. Instead, Coen has just been yelling at everyone he sees, likely because he’s frustrated that he can’t improve his quarterback or figure out how to use his No. 2 overall pick. Lawrence has led the team to a 3-1 record, but he’s been extremely underwhelming with missed throws and turnovers.

The one element of Jacksonville’s offense that is working well is the running game. Travis Etienne has shockingly been productive this year, but keep in mind that no team the Jaguars have battled this year is ranked better than 16th in run defense. And yes, that includes the Texans, who are 20th versus the rush.

RECAP: The rule with the Chiefs is that they do the bare minimum to win regular-season games. Regular-season games, after all, have become old hat for them. They care about Super Bowls; not September and October wins.

The good thing about this game for the Chiefs is that the bare minimum could include a cover. The spread is only three, so the Chiefs could win by 3-7 points and get the ATS victory or push.

This spread, by the way, doesn’t seem correct. If Kansas City’s offensive woes are mostly resolved as a result of Worthy’s return, then the Chiefs should be favored by more than just a field goal. I made this line Kansas City -5.5. Perhaps -3 is a trap, but it could be that the public is brainwashed into believing the Jaguars are a good team because they’re 3-1.

One of the dumbest quotes ever uttered by a brilliant football coach was when Bill Parcells said, “You are what your record is.” That is complete nonsense, and a team like the Jaguars is perfect evidence of that. If the records indicate how good these teams are, then the Jaguars are apparently better than the Chiefs, which is just ridiculous. Jacksonville has had the luxury of battling bad and flawed teams, while the Chiefs have taken on the Chargers (at full strength), Eagles, and Ravens. If the Chiefs had the Jaguars’ schedule, and vice versa, I believe the Chiefs would be 3-1 or 4-0, while the Jaguars would be 1-3 or 0-4. What would this spread be in that instance? Chiefs -6, maybe? If so, then Kansas City is the right side.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: If you like the Chiefs, consider locking them in at -3 -118 on FanDuel.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Jaguars have a number of questionable players right now, including Travon Walker and several offensive linemen. We’ll have to see what the final injury report looks like.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Again, the injury report will be important. Check back around 7:30 p.m. Eastern on Monday for updates.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: We’re going with Xavier Worthy, who will be the focal point of Kansas City’s offense until Rashee Rice returns from suspension in Week 7. I like Worthy’s receptions more than yardage. The best number is over 4.5 receptions -123 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

Worthy will be part of our same-game parlay, which will be comprised of Worthy over 4.5 receptions, Dyami Brown over 2.5 receptions, and Patrick Mahomes under 21.5 rushing yards. This parlay is 30-percent boosted at BetMGM. This $25 parlay pays $149.63.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Jaguars won’t have Travon Walker available, which is a nice boost for Patrick Mahomes. The sharps haven’t seemed to care because they haven’t touched this game. I like the Chiefs at -3.5, but liked them more at -3. Unfortunately, I don’t see any -3s available. The best -3.5 is for +100 vig at ESPNBet, but you can boost the Chiefs up to +125 at FanDuel for up to $50. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

TOUCHDOWN SCORER: BetRivers has a $10 bonus bet offer for a first touchdown scorer. We’re going with Brenton Strange at +1900.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Chiefs.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -3.

Computer Model: Chiefs -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.

Growing money on the Chiefs.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 65% (272,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

Patrick Mahomes is 102-27 SU, 68-59 ATS (54-45 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Jaguars are 67-113 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Opening Line: Chiefs -3.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 76 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.