2025 NFL Picks – Week 5: Broncos at Eagles

The Matchup. Edge: Broncos.

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PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Eagles had such an offensive explosion in the first half against the Buccaneers that the Tampa Bay defenders could do nothing but shake their heads. Philadelphia, however, did nothing in the second half and nearly blew a huge lead as a result.

So, what happened? You can point the extremely hot temperature on the field (110) perhaps wearing down the team wearing dark jerseys, but Lane Johnson’s injury was the greater factor. The Eagles have shown, time and time again, that they are not the same offense without Johnson. His status is in jeopardy for this contest, especially with another game coming up in four days. If Johnson is sidelined, that’s going to be a huge blow for the Eagles because they’re going up against the Broncos, who have the No. 1 pass rush in the NFL. They have 104 pressures through four games, so Jalen Hurts will constantly be under siege. Hurts won’t be able to throw to A.J. Brown, who will be smothered by Patrick Surtain II.

Philadelphia’s best chance of moving the ball is with Saquon Barkley as a receiver out of the backfield. Barkley will not be able do much on the ground versus the Broncos, who are ranked seventh against the rush.

DENVER OFFENSE: The Broncos were able to move the ball quite easily against the Bengals. If it weren’t for a couple of offensive linemen committing a million penalties, they may have scored into the 40s. However, they were battling Cincinnati’s defense, which is far inferior to what Philadelphia represents.

The Eagles, like the Broncos, are a top-10 team when it comes to stopping the run. It’s safe to say that J.K. Dobbins won’t be celebrating a 100-yard game once again. The Eagles had issues containing Javonte Williams in the opener, but remember that Jalen Carter was ejected. Philadelphia has been much more dominant versus the rush since Carter’s return.

Philadelphia can also get after the quarterback consistently – 81 pressures through four games – but this is where we’ll see a difference between the teams. The Eagles, without Johnson, can’t block all that well, while Denver has a strong front. There are also some issues in Philadelphia’s secondary that can be exploited, and Bo Nix is doing a good job of spreading the ball around.

RECAP: If the Eagles were at full strength and didn’t have any look-ahead implications, I would side with them to cover this spread. The Broncos haven’t beaten any good teams in the Nix era yet. All they’ve done is sit on horrible opponents, which was part of the reason why they were an obvious play on Monday night. The Eagles are obviously a top-caliber foe, which would be a tough proposition for Denver.

However, the Eagles are not at full strength, and they do have look-ahead implications. Johnson being out would be catastrophic against the league’s best pass rush, while the Eagles have to play a divisional game against the Giants in four days. At 4-0, the Eagles may not be focused against a non-conference opponent because they have to prepare for the Giants’ new quarterback.

I’m going to pick the Broncos in this game. I may end up betting them, but I’ll mark this down as zero units for now until I see the injury report.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Lane Johnson was limited in Wednesday’s practice, which is a very positive development for the Eagles. If he’s able to suit up, I won’t bet the Broncos.

SATURDAY NOTES: If you were looking to bet the Broncos, you were hoping to see Lane Johnson ruled out for this game. Johnson, however, doesn’t have an injury designation after practicing fully on Thursday or Friday. I still like the Broncos because of the spot, but I won’t be betting them.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There are no surprise injuries in this game. The sharps are also split, with some pro money coming in on the Broncos at +4.5 and other pro money coming in on the Eagles -3.5. I’m still leaning toward the Broncos. The best line is +4 -110 at BetMGM and Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Broncos.

The Eagles play a divisional game in four days.

The Spread. Edge: Eagles.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -6.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -5.5.

Computer Model: Eagles -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Denver: 58% (116,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

Sean Payton is 15-9 ATS after Monday Night Football.

Eagles are 8-19 ATS before playing the Giants since December 2010.

Opening Line: Eagles -4.5.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Sunny, 79 degrees. Light wind.