2025 NFL Picks – Week 5: Titans at Cardinals

The Matchup. Edge: Cardinals.

Video of the Week: I found this video oddly entertaining:

“I don’t make the rules, I’m not Chinese!”

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: The Titans have looked dreadful outside of some brief moments this year. They’re 0-4 and seem completely broken, especially offensively. They’ve scored 12, 19, 20, and 0 points through four weeks.

It must be noted, however, that the Titans have battled some elite defenses. The Broncos, Colts, Rams, and Texans are ranked 10th, eighth, third, and 14th, respectively, and let’s be real – Houston’s defense is better than 14. If you just make them ninth, that means Tennessee has faced nothing but top-10 defenses thus far. That’s an awful lot to ask for a rookie!

The problem is that the Cardinals are 11th in defensive EPA, so Cam Ward may have to wait a week to have offensive success. The Cardinals can get after the quarterback – 78 pressures through four games – so Ward will have issues behind his poor blocking unit. Tony Pollard will have better luck producing, but not if he’s trailing by a large deficit.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: While the Cardinals are 11th in defense, the Titans are 23rd. A big part of the problem for them is that they can’t generate heat on opposing quarterbacks. They have just 57 pressures on the year, and a third of them are from Jeffery Simmons.

Arizona protects Kyler Murray fairly well, so Murray will be able to dissect a poor secondary with ease. It might help that he and Marvin Harrison Jr. developed a rhythm in the second half of the Thursday game.

As if the inability to generate quarterback pressure wasn’t enough, the Titans also haven’t been able to stop the run since T’Vondre Sweat suffered an injury. James Conner is out, but Trey Benson is a talented back who could put together a terrific performance.

RECAP: The Cardinals are the easiest team in the NFL to handicap. They can’t beat good teams whatsoever, but they sit on the bad teams. They led by double digits in the fourth quarters of the New Orleans and Carolina games. They were up 27-3 versus the Panthers, but fell asleep at the wheel and allowed a back-door cover.

Could they do this again? Possibly, but the difference is that the Cardinals are coming off a loss. They’ll be focused, especially given that they’ve had extra time to prepare for this game.

This may seem like a high number to back the Cardinals, but I think it’s been made that way to keep from backing Arizona. Tennessee +8 may look very appealing, but this is a team that just lost 26-0 to the Texans, who are arguably worse than the Cardinals.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Cardinals won’t have Trey Benson, but that won’t keep me from betting them. Running back is one position where teams can find replacements very easily.

SATURDAY NOTES: There’s a chance the Cardinals could have top cornerback Will Johnson and Will Hernandez back from injury, while the Titans will be missing J.C. Latham again. Arizona looks great once again.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m hoping we get a -7 available, but I’m not counting on it. I’m seeing -7 -118 at Bookmaker, which is under consideration.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Cardinals will have top cornerback Will Johnson and guard Will Hernandez back from injury. The sharps have not touched this game. The best line is -7.5 -105 at BetMGM. However, you can get a 50-percent profit boost at FanDuel, which you can turn -6.5 -150 into -6.5 +100. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Cardinals.

The Cardinals are coming off a loss on national TV.

The Spread. Edge: .

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cardinals -9.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cardinals -8.

Computer Model: Cardinals -9.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.

Big lean on the Cardinals.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 72% (103,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

Cardinals are 6-16 ATS as favorites of 7.5 or more the previous 22 instances.

Opening Line: Cardinals -8.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Dome.