2025 NFL Picks – Week 5: Vikings at Browns

The Matchup. Edge: Vikings.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

BOYCOTT GAME: I will be boycotting this game, and I urge all of you to do the same. When the NFL had one game in Europe and played it at 1 p.m. Eastern, I was fine with it. Two games began pushing it, and then three games were unacceptable. Now, there are seven European games, and they all begin at 6:30 a.m. on the West Coast, which absolutely screws everyone living in that time zone. Football needs to be in America; not Europe. The NFL needs to go back to just one European game. Tell Roger Goodell to f**k off and buy this Make Football American Again t-shirt:

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The Vikings got back on track in Week 3. With Carson Wentz providing some stability at quarterback, and Christian Darrisaw returning from injury, the Vikings were able to score quite easily in that game, albeit against a defensively challenged Cincinnati squad.

Things fell apart in Week 4 because the Vikings once again experienced offensive line issues. Both Ryan Kelly and Brian O’Neill, two talented blockers, were knocked out against the Steelers. With Wentz receiving no protection from a talented pass rush, Minnesota struggled to score until garbage time.

Issues on the offensive line are never a good thing to have against Cleveland’s elite defensive front. The Vikings should be able to formulate a game plan concerning the absence of some of their blockers with a full week off, but it’s not like moving the ball on the Browns is going to be a simple task. Cleveland shuts down the run and puts heavy pressure on opposing quarterbacks, so the Vikings won’t have much going for themselves on this side of the ball.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: It’s not like the Browns are going to score much either. They have their own offensive issues, and the Vikings have the No. 1-ranked defense in the NFL, according to EPA numbers. It’s pretty impressive that they’ve been this good, given that they haven’t had Andrew Van Ginkel for multiple games.

Van Ginkel was missed against the Steelers, but there’s a good chance he’ll return for this contest because he was able to play in Week 3. Even if he can’t go, the Vikings will have the edge on this side of the ball. They generate lots of heat on the quarterback – their 80 pressures through four games is more than Cleveland’s 71 – and the Browns have severe issues at tackle right now. Joe Flacco is constantly under siege from the outside, and that’s causing him to commit turnovers.

One area where the Browns could succeed is running the ball. Quinshon Judkins has looked as great as advertised through three games, and the Vikings just surrendered nearly 100 rushing yards to Kenneth Gainwell. This is where Van Ginkel’s presence would help.

RECAP: I love the Vikings for a couple of reasons. First, they’re the superior team coming off a loss. This puts them in a great spot, as they’ll want to make amends for embarrassing themselves on an international stage. I like that we know the better squad will be focused for this game.

Second, the Vikings will have the greatest homefield advantage in all of sports. I’m not referring to U.S. Bank Stadium, but rather the fact that the Vikings will have their body clocks adjusted from already being in Europe. They’ll be used to the ridiculous 6:30 a.m. Pacific start time, while the traveling Browns won’t be. Remember, Cleveland didn’t even play at home last week; the team traveled to Detroit and now will be going overseas to play this horrible game.

It’s a small sample size, but the two teams that have had this body-clock advantage demolished their competition. The Jaguars smoked the Bills and Patriots in consecutive years. They were even with New England, talent-wise, and they were obviously worse than Buffalo. The Jaguars were close to being six-point underdogs, and yet they got out to a big lead versus the Bills.

I usually hate betting these dumb international games, but this is different. Minnesota’s body-clock adjustment is undefeated and should continue to be, given that the Vikings are better than the Browns and will be looking to redeem themselves.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Dillon Gabriel will be starting for the Browns. This is a rough spot for him. Not only does he have to prepare on a short week as a result of international travel; he’ll be matched up against defensive mastermind Brian Flores.

PLAYER PROPS: FanDuel has a 30-percent boost for an anytime touchdown scorer in this game. We’re going with Jordan Mason again, taking him from +100 to +130. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: Man, I hate seeing all of these Viking injuries. I was hoping they’d get some of their injured players back, but that’s not the case. Andrew Van Ginkel, Brian O’Neill, Ryan Kelly, and Donovan Jackson are all sidelined. The Browns, conversely, could get Jack Conklin back from injury because he practiced fully on Friday. On one hand, I want to cancel my Minnesota bet, but on the other, I’ve been waiting to bet Minnesota in this game all year because of the huge body-clock advantage. I’m going to drop the unit count from five to three.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m sticking with the Vikings for three units. Maybe their injuries will be too much, but I love this spot too much. The sharps have not touched this game. The best line is -3 -113 at Bookmaker. Otherwise, it’s -3.5 elsewhere. The best -3.5 otherwise is at ESPNBet for +105 vig (+112 at Bookmaker). Because it’s -3.5 elsewhere, and you can’t bet down to -3 on most books, I’ll stick with the -3.5 here, but I’ll list it for +112 vig. However, I’d highly encourage going with the -3 -113. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Vikings.

The Vikings embarrassed themselves on an international stage.

The Spread. Edge: Vikings.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Vikings -6.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Vikings -4.5.

Computer Model: Vikings -5.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 53% (152,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

Kevin O’Connell is 4-0 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Opening Line: Vikings -4.5.

Opening Total: 37.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 59 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.