NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 5, 2025 – Early Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2025): 9-2-1 (+$890)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2025): 9-7 (-$725)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2025): 7-9 (-$925)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2025): 6-10 (-$1,285)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2025): 6-10 (+$410)
2025 NFL Picks: 37-38-1 (-$1,635)

2024 NFL Picks: 144-136-12 (-$1,380)
NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Oct. 5, 11:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 5 NFL Picks – Late Games

The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

Week 4 Analysis: Aside from one game, Week 4 was looking pretty good heading into Sunday night. And then, we had a crazy roller coaster ride.

I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Patriots, 3 units (win): Ugh, why didn’t I bet more on this? I was a bit scared off by the spread, but that should have meant being more aggressive with this pick.

Falcons, 3 units (win): This was somehow +1 in the Supercontest and the Circa Millions. Atlanta -2.5 was good enough in an obvious bounce-back spot against a backup quarterback.

Chargers, 5 units (loss): I must have been some sort of witch doctor or voodoo lady in a previous life because key players get hurt on teams I bet all the time. We had Nick Bosa last week, and we had Joe Alt this week. Alt played just eight snaps before getting carted into the locker room, and the Chargers couldn’t protect whatsoever without him. This pressure led to two Justin Herbert interceptions that gave the Giants 11 free points on a pair of short fields. If you remove 11 points from the final score, the Giants go from winning 21-18 to losing 18-10, which covers the spread for us. The bad beats are relentless. Now, I know Malik Nabers got hurt too, but that was later in the game when the Giants already had a two-score lead.

Packers, 5 units (loss): I can’t explain this one. The Packers are far superior compared to a Dallas team with a terrible defense, an injured CeeDee Lamb, and two missing offensive linemen. They were also coming off a loss. How were they this bad defensively? I don’t get it. The Cowboys said that the blocked extra point gave them life, and if that’s really what it was, then that’s two blocked kicks in two consecutive weeks that have cost us eight units, plus the vig.

Broncos, 5 units (win): What a night! We hit the Broncos for five units, the -20.5 alt line for +420, and both same-game parlays!

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: It was quite apparent that Brock Purdy wasn’t healthy in his return to action on Sunday. He made numerous mistakes, costing his team a potential victory over an inferior opponent.

I could buy Purdy being closer to 100 percent on a normal week of rest, but the NFL, showing a complete disregard for player health and safety, irresponsibly schedules games on just three days of rest. As a result, Purdy is likely going to struggle once again, especially when factoring in that his receivers are banged up. Both Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings left the Jacksonville contest early with injuries, so it seems unlikely that they’ll be able to play this week.

The 49ers will have to continue to lean heavily on Christian McCaffrey. While McCaffrey will be effective as a receiver out of the backfield, he’s certain to struggle on the ground because the Rams have been stellar against the run this year.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: While the Rams have shut down opposing rushing attacks, the 49ers are mediocre as far as that part of the game is concerned. Travis Etienne had a big game versus San Francisco last week, so Kyren Williams and Blake Corum will be able to pick up chunks of yardage.

The biggest liability for the 49ers on this side of the ball is the pass rush. This wasn’t the case to start the season, but things have changed in the wake of the Nick Bosa injury. The 49ers are now putting less pressure on opposing quarterbacks.

I don’t need to tell you that this is a disastrous development for an impending matchup against Matthew Stafford. The Los Angeles quarterback came into the season with back concerns, but has been stellar after a slow start. The 49ers won’t be able to deal with Puka Nacua and Davante Adams.

RECAP: The 49ers are at a big disadvantage. They have severe health issues concerning their banged-up quarterback and hobbled receivers. They have to somehow formulate a game plan against a superior opponent in just three days with these issues. I’m very skeptical that they’ll be able to do this.

I like the Rams to cover the spread in this contest. I already have a habit of backing the better team on Thursdays, and the injuries make it so much more lopsided. Unless the 49ers get some unexpected positive injury news – one of Pearsall and Jennings returning for this game – I’ll be siding with the Rams for a couple of units.

Our Week 5 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Wow, this game has changed a lot since I handicapped it on Tuesday morning. Brock Purdy and the two top receivers are out, causing the line to move to -8.5. I still like the Rams because their defense should be able to suffocate Mac Jones, but there’s a chance that coming off a win, the Rams may not be totally focused against the 49ers, given how many backups San Francisco will be utilizing. Plus, Thursday games are always weird. I won’t be betting on either side.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: First of all, FanDuel has a 30-percent profit boost for this game, up to $50. I’m going to back the Rams -9.5 for a half unit because of the great odds from the boost.

The vig on this is high, but I think there’s a great chance it’ll hit. I like the Jake Tonges over 2.5 receptions. The Rams have allowed a lot of production to tight ends, and Tonges will be heavily involved because both Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings are out. The best line is over 2.5 receptions -162 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

FanDuel has a no-sweat same-game parlay token available. We’ll be parlaying the Tonges over 2.5 receptions, Demarcus Robinson over 2.5 receptions, Kyren Williams over 67.5 rushing yards, and Rams moneyline. This $25 parlay pays $114.03. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As expected, the 49ers won’t have any of their key offensive players in this game, save for Christian McCaffrey. There’s a bit of sharp action on the Rams, but nothing substantial. The best line is -8.5 -102 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Rams -3.

Computer Model: Rams -5.5.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.

Slight lean on the Rams.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 61% (256,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

History: 49ers have won 27 of the last 38 meetings, excluding the 2012 tie and a 2023 game where both teams sat starters.

Opening Line: Rams -3.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Vikings.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

BOYCOTT GAME: I will be boycotting this game, and I urge all of you to do the same. When the NFL had one game in Europe and played it at 1 p.m. Eastern, I was fine with it. Two games began pushing it, and then three games were unacceptable. Now, there are seven European games, and they all begin at 6:30 a.m. on the West Coast, which absolutely screws everyone living in that time zone. Football needs to be in America; not Europe. The NFL needs to go back to just one European game. Tell Roger Goodell to f**k off and buy this Make Football American Again t-shirt:

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The Vikings got back on track in Week 3. With Carson Wentz providing some stability at quarterback, and Christian Darrisaw returning from injury, the Vikings were able to score quite easily in that game, albeit against a defensively challenged Cincinnati squad.

Things fell apart in Week 4 because the Vikings once again experienced offensive line issues. Both Ryan Kelly and Brian O’Neill, two talented blockers, were knocked out against the Steelers. With Wentz receiving no protection from a talented pass rush, Minnesota struggled to score until garbage time.

Issues on the offensive line are never a good thing to have against Cleveland’s elite defensive front. The Vikings should be able to formulate a game plan concerning the absence of some of their blockers with a full week off, but it’s not like moving the ball on the Browns is going to be a simple task. Cleveland shuts down the run and puts heavy pressure on opposing quarterbacks, so the Vikings won’t have much going for themselves on this side of the ball.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: It’s not like the Browns are going to score much either. They have their own offensive issues, and the Vikings have the No. 1-ranked defense in the NFL, according to EPA numbers. It’s pretty impressive that they’ve been this good, given that they haven’t had Andrew Van Ginkel for multiple games.

Van Ginkel was missed against the Steelers, but there’s a good chance he’ll return for this contest because he was able to play in Week 3. Even if he can’t go, the Vikings will have the edge on this side of the ball. They generate lots of heat on the quarterback – their 80 pressures through four games is more than Cleveland’s 71 – and the Browns have severe issues at tackle right now. Joe Flacco is constantly under siege from the outside, and that’s causing him to commit turnovers.

One area where the Browns could succeed is running the ball. Quinshon Judkins has looked as great as advertised through three games, and the Vikings just surrendered nearly 100 rushing yards to Kenneth Gainwell. This is where Van Ginkel’s presence would help.

RECAP: I love the Vikings for a couple of reasons. First, they’re the superior team coming off a loss. This puts them in a great spot, as they’ll want to make amends for embarrassing themselves on an international stage. I like that we know the better squad will be focused for this game.

Second, the Vikings will have the greatest homefield advantage in all of sports. I’m not referring to U.S. Bank Stadium, but rather the fact that the Vikings will have their body clocks adjusted from already being in Europe. They’ll be used to the ridiculous 6:30 a.m. Pacific start time, while the traveling Browns won’t be. Remember, Cleveland didn’t even play at home last week; the team traveled to Detroit and now will be going overseas to play this horrible game.

It’s a small sample size, but the two teams that have had this body-clock advantage demolished their competition. The Jaguars smoked the Bills and Patriots in consecutive years. They were even with New England, talent-wise, and they were obviously worse than Buffalo. The Jaguars were close to being six-point underdogs, and yet they got out to a big lead versus the Bills.

I usually hate betting these dumb international games, but this is different. Minnesota’s body-clock adjustment is undefeated and should continue to be, given that the Vikings are better than the Browns and will be looking to redeem themselves.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Dillon Gabriel will be starting for the Browns. This is a rough spot for him. Not only does he have to prepare on a short week as a result of international travel; he’ll be matched up against defensive mastermind Brian Flores.

PLAYER PROPS: FanDuel has a 30-percent boost for an anytime touchdown scorer in this game. We’re going with Jordan Mason again, taking him from +100 to +130. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: Man, I hate seeing all of these Viking injuries. I was hoping they’d get some of their injured players back, but that’s not the case. Andrew Van Ginkel, Brian O’Neill, Ryan Kelly, and Donovan Jackson are all sidelined. The Browns, conversely, could get Jack Conklin back from injury because he practiced fully on Friday. On one hand, I want to cancel my Minnesota bet, but on the other, I’ve been waiting to bet Minnesota in this game all year because of the huge body-clock advantage. I’m going to drop the unit count from five to three.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m sticking with the Vikings for three units. Maybe their injuries will be too much, but I love this spot too much. The sharps have not touched this game. The best line is -3 -113 at Bookmaker. Otherwise, it’s -3.5 elsewhere. The best -3.5 otherwise is at ESPNBet for +105 vig (+112 at Bookmaker). Because it’s -3.5 elsewhere, and you can’t bet down to -3 on most books, I’ll stick with the -3.5 here, but I’ll list it for +112 vig. However, I’d highly encourage going with the -3 -113. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Vikings.

The Vikings embarrassed themselves on an international stage.

The Spread. Edge: Vikings.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Vikings -6.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Vikings -4.5.

Computer Model: Vikings -5.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 53% (152,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

Kevin O’Connell is 4-0 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Opening Line: Vikings -4.5.

Opening Total: 37.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 59 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were: 34-42 in 2020, 48-37 in 2021, 32-35-1 in 2022, 31-27 ATS in 2023, and 49-45 in 2024. The public was 2-10 heading into Week 4.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Redskins +2.5

Packers -6.5

Panthers +5.5

Steelers +2.5

Bills -12.5

The public went 1-4 in Week 1, 1-3 in Week 2, 0-3 in Week 3, and 1-4 in Week 4. No one is going to have money for Christmas presents at this rate.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Ravens -3.5

Cowboys -2.5

Colts -6.5

Lions -9.5

It’s early, so I have to wonder if the public knows about Lamar Jackson’s injury.

MIAMI OFFENSE: The Dolphins were able to move the ball effectively against the Jets on Monday night. Even after Tyreek Hill suffered a brutal leg injury, Miami continued to advance the chains via De’Von Achane, Jaylen Waddle, and the newly acquired Darren Waller.

Given how poor Carolina’s defense is, the Dolphins should be able to sustain this level of success. The Panthers were missing their top two edge players last week, and they can’t defend anything in the first place. They have a meager 46 pressures on the year, and that’s with D.J. Wonnum playing three games. The Dolphins have a miserable offensive line, but Carolina’s pass rush is so poor that Tua Tagovailoa will have plenty of time in the pocket for a change.

Tagovailoa may not need to do much anyway. Achane should be able to rip through a Panthers run defense that has allowed some big games to opposing rushers this year.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: It hasn’t been pretty for the Panthers on this side of the ball this season. Even in their 30-0 win over the Falcons, they weren’t able to generate 250 net yards of offense. Bryce Young looks like a lost cause, as his inability to see over the line of scrimmage continues to be a problem.

However, Young could have a rare strong performance in this game. Miami’s struggles in the secondary are well documented. Storm Duck’s replacement is not going to be able to slow down Tetairoa McMillan. Young won’t have to worry about the Miami pass rushers very much either, as the Dolphins have just 53 pressures through four games.

Like the Dolphins, Carolina will be able to pound the ball. Chuba Hubbard hasn’t had much of a chance to run this year because of the constant deficits, but the Dolphins displayed a major weakness to the run in their battle against the Jets on Monday night. Hubbard will be able to exploit this liability.

RECAP: To quote our Wednesday WalterFootball After Dark co-host Andy Iskoe, “When garbage plays garbage, take the points.” That is what we’ll be doing in this game.

The Panthers are a home underdog to the Dolphins even though these seem to be two equal teams. You could argue that the Dolphins are better with Hill, but he won’t be playing in this game. I don’t see why the Panthers couldn’t “upset” Miami, especially given that they’ll have one more day of preparation time.

Regardless, I’m not betting this terrible game. Let’s move on to more competitive contests.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Nothing new here. I won’t be betting this game unless there are a crazy number of injuries.

SATURDAY NOTES: Part of the reason why the Panthers couldn’t be competitive with the Panthers is because they were down their top two edge rushers, D.J. Wonnum and Patrick Jones. The Patriots kept running at their replacements, and they had a lot of success doing so. Carolina won’t have that issue this week. Jones has no injury designation, while Wonnum, while questionable, managed to practice fully on Friday. This makes the Panthers somewhat intriguing, but I still can’t get there as far as betting Carolina is concerned.

FINAL THOUGHTS: D.J. Wonnum is active for the Panthers, which is a big deal, considering how bad the edge play was last week versus New England. I would side with the Panthers, and that’s where the sharps are going. The best line is +1 -107 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Panthers -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Panthers -1.5.

Computer Model: Panthers -2.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 59% (101,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: .

Opening Line: Panthers -1.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 77 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s three pieces of hate mail:

A bowl full of mush and a giant hair brush. I think those are the words.

Another reply to the same post:

I don’t understand what the insult would be. Clowns are funny. People like clowns. If someone calls me clown, I consider it to be a good thing.

Another post:

We got crushed on a bad beat, but Teddy Letterman doesn’t understand that on the count of being autistic.

DALLAS OFFENSE: Wow, what a performance by Dak Prescott. People may not remember the Sunday night game against the Packers when his career is over down the road, but it’ll go down as one of his best performances ever. Considering that he was down two offensive linemen and CeeDee Lamb, it was truly amazing that he was able to torch Green Bay’s renowned defense for 40 points amid Micah Parsons’ revenge game.

Prescott could have a tougher matchup in this game, only because the Jets will be able to use Sauce Gardner to blanket his lone dynamic downfield threat in George Pickens. However, we just saw what Darren Waller did to the Jets, so perhaps Dallas will exploit this liability with Jake Ferguson.

Speaking of liabilities, the Jets can’t stop the run at all, so perhaps this will be a Javonte Williams game. Williams has inexplicably found the fountain of youth after looking so dreadful in Denver the past few years.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: As great as Prescott was on Sunday night, the Cowboys defense was just as bad. Dallas has the worst defense in the NFL if you exclude Week 1, and it’s not even close.

Justin Fields, now another week removed from his concussion, will be able to do whatever he wants against the Cowboys. He’ll have some great connections with Garrett Wilson, who is enjoying a fantastic year thus far. Fields will also run circles around the inept linebackers, much like he did versus the Dolphins on Monday night.

Breece Hall also figures to have a solid game. The Cowboys are better against the run than the pass, but only by default. While they can’t stop aerial attacks at all, they’re 22nd versus the run, which isn’t terrible.

RECAP: It’s saying a lot that the Cowboys aren’t -3 over an 0-4 team after the offensive explosion they had on Sunday night. There’s so much money coming in on Dallas, and yet this line is not budging off -2.5. I assume this is because the sportsbooks know that the sharps are waiting for a Jets +3 line that they can hammer.

I like the Jets in this game. They’re 0-4, but they’ve lost three 50/50 games this year, as they easily could have beaten the Steelers, Buccaneers (with a backup quarterback), and the Dolphins. If they had gotten lucky and were 2-2, they wouldn’t be home underdogs.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys could be deflated off their Sunday night game where they threw the kitchen sink against the Packers. Backing teams coming off ties is generally a losing proposition anyway; teams following ties are 14-20 against the spread. It’s not a big sample size, but it makes sense that the energy would be low after an unsatisfying conclusion.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I think it’s saying a lot that despite the public money coming in on the Cowboys, this line still hasn’t moved off +2.5. I think the sportsbooks know the sharps will hammer the +3 if they can get it.

PLAYER PROPS: We keep betting Justin Fields’ over rushing prop, and we keep winning. Why stop now, especially against Dallas? The Cowboys have allowed significant rushing yardage to every quarterback they’ve battled this year. Jalen Hurts gained 62 rushing yards in the opener, so Fields can get to 50. The best number is over 49.5 rushing yards -113 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: Holy crap, Dallas’ injury report is brutal. The Cowboys were down two offensive linemen last week, and now they’ll be without three for sure, and perhaps four. Their best blocker, Tyler Smith, hasn’t practiced all week because of a knee. The defense, meanwhile, which is already terrible, will be without a couple of starters. I’m going to increase my unit count to three on the Jets.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Tyler Smith is active, which is a disappointment. However, he didn’t practice all week, so the Cowboys might just be activating him out of desperation, given the status of the rest of the offensive line. The sharps continue to pound the Jets. The best line is +1 -109 at Bookmaker. However, BetMGM has a 20-percent profit boost, which we’ll use for this game.

The Motivation. Edge: Jets.

The Cowboys could be in a letdown spot.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Jets -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -1.5.

Computer Model: Cowboys -3.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Tons of action on the Cowboys early in the week.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 51% (132,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Pick.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Sunny, 83 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Colts.

We have a new section on the site! we have a place for WalterFootball.com Video Content. We’ll be releasing short videos (8-20 minutes) on this page, with a new video each day. It’ll be a quick way to get NFL picks, fantasy football, and NFL Draft content.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: What’s with the Colts and always dropping the ball shy of the goal line? They always do this! Jonathan Taylor cost the Colts a win in the infamous 2024 Battle of the Horses, and Adonai Mitchell, who saw Taylor do it in real time, repeated the blunder against the Rams. There’s a good chance the Colts would have beaten the Rams had Mitchell not screwed up.

The Colts should be able to get back on track in this matchup against a dreadful Raiders defense. The one thing the Raiders do well is rush the passer with Maxx Crosby, but it’s not like they have a devastating pass rush otherwise (65 pressures in four games.) Daniel Jones is well protected and can move around. He’ll be able to locate his receivers, who won’t have an issue getting open versus the Las Vegas secondary.

Of course, Jones will want to lean on Taylor. The Raiders are ranked somewhat highly against ground attacks, but between battling the Patriots, Redskins and Bears through three games, it’s not like they’ve gone up against elite rushing attacks.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: While the Raiders aren’t very good defensively, their biggest problem is their pass protection. Their offensive line was already horrendous, and now it’ll be without Kolton Miller, who suffered an ankle sprain versus the Bears.

The Colts will be able to take advantage of this liability, given that they’ve accumulated 80 pressures on the year thus far. Geno Smith will be forced into more turnovers, as he’s become a reckless quarterback despite ESPN DEI hire Mina Kimes proclaiming that he’s a top-10 quarterback in the wake of the offseason trade.

Ashton Jeanty is adversely affected by the poor offensive line as well. Jeanty is coming off his first great NFL game, but he’ll continue to see contact behind the line of scrimmage from a Colts defense that ranks third against the run.

RECAP: This is a great spot for the Colts. They’re coming off a loss to the Rams and will be looking to redeem themselves after basically throwing the game away with the Mitchell play. They get to take on a jetlagged Raiders team, which has inexplicably gone from playing on the East Coast (New England), to going back to Las Vegas, to going back to the East Coast (Washington), to going back to Las Vegas, to going back to the East Coast (Indianapolis is not quite the East Coast, but it’s still the Eastern Time Zone.) On the plus side, they’re accumulating some major air mile points, so maybe they’ll get a free vacation, or something.

Seriously though, I don’t know if we’ve ever seen a schedule like this, but the Raiders have to be exhausted from all of this traveling. They were already behind the eight ball enough by having to go up against a superior team without their left tackle.

Despite the lopsided matchup, the Miller injury, and horrible traveling for the Raiders, the Colts are only -6.5. This line should be in the -8 to -9.5 range, so we’re getting a solid bargain with Indianapolis.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s nice to see that the Colts have moved to -7 in some sportsbooks. I was concerned about this line remaining at -6.5, which would have indicated sharp action on the Raiders.

SATURDAY NOTES: As if the Raiders weren’t in rough shape already with their brutal travel schedule and the injury to Kolton Miller, they may now not have Brock Bowers, who failed to practice on Thursday or Friday. The Colts look great.

LOCKED IN: There’s a report indicating that Brock Bowers is trending toward not playing. We might see this spread move to -7.5 as a result. Let’s lock in Colts -7 -108 at Bookmaker or BetRivers. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The reports ended up being true, as Brock Bowers is inactive. So is Eric Stokes. The sharps are on the Colts. The best line is -7 -110 at FanDuel, but we locked this in at -7 -108 at Bookmaker, which currently lists Indianapolis at -114.

The Motivation. Edge: Colts.

The Colts are coming off a loss, while the Raiders will be extremely jetlagged.

The Spread. Edge: Colts.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Colts -8.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Colts -6.5.

Computer Model: Colts -9.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

Action on the Colts.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 69% (105,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Raiders.

Pete Carroll is 21-12 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Pete Carroll is 17-11 ATS in 1 p.m. East Coast games

Opening Line: Colts -6.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Broncos.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Futures page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Eagles had such an offensive explosion in the first half against the Buccaneers that the Tampa Bay defenders could do nothing but shake their heads. Philadelphia, however, did nothing in the second half and nearly blew a huge lead as a result.

So, what happened? You can point the extremely hot temperature on the field (110) perhaps wearing down the team wearing dark jerseys, but Lane Johnson’s injury was the greater factor. The Eagles have shown, time and time again, that they are not the same offense without Johnson. His status is in jeopardy for this contest, especially with another game coming up in four days. If Johnson is sidelined, that’s going to be a huge blow for the Eagles because they’re going up against the Broncos, who have the No. 1 pass rush in the NFL. They have 104 pressures through four games, so Jalen Hurts will constantly be under siege. Hurts won’t be able to throw to A.J. Brown, who will be smothered by Patrick Surtain II.

Philadelphia’s best chance of moving the ball is with Saquon Barkley as a receiver out of the backfield. Barkley will not be able do much on the ground versus the Broncos, who are ranked seventh against the rush.

DENVER OFFENSE: The Broncos were able to move the ball quite easily against the Bengals. If it weren’t for a couple of offensive linemen committing a million penalties, they may have scored into the 40s. However, they were battling Cincinnati’s defense, which is far inferior to what Philadelphia represents.

The Eagles, like the Broncos, are a top-10 team when it comes to stopping the run. It’s safe to say that J.K. Dobbins won’t be celebrating a 100-yard game once again. The Eagles had issues containing Javonte Williams in the opener, but remember that Jalen Carter was ejected. Philadelphia has been much more dominant versus the rush since Carter’s return.

Philadelphia can also get after the quarterback consistently – 81 pressures through four games – but this is where we’ll see a difference between the teams. The Eagles, without Johnson, can’t block all that well, while Denver has a strong front. There are also some issues in Philadelphia’s secondary that can be exploited, and Bo Nix is doing a good job of spreading the ball around.

RECAP: If the Eagles were at full strength and didn’t have any look-ahead implications, I would side with them to cover this spread. The Broncos haven’t beaten any good teams in the Nix era yet. All they’ve done is sit on horrible opponents, which was part of the reason why they were an obvious play on Monday night. The Eagles are obviously a top-caliber foe, which would be a tough proposition for Denver.

However, the Eagles are not at full strength, and they do have look-ahead implications. Johnson being out would be catastrophic against the league’s best pass rush, while the Eagles have to play a divisional game against the Giants in four days. At 4-0, the Eagles may not be focused against a non-conference opponent because they have to prepare for the Giants’ new quarterback.

I’m going to pick the Broncos in this game. I may end up betting them, but I’ll mark this down as zero units for now until I see the injury report.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Lane Johnson was limited in Wednesday’s practice, which is a very positive development for the Eagles. If he’s able to suit up, I won’t bet the Broncos.

SATURDAY NOTES: If you were looking to bet the Broncos, you were hoping to see Lane Johnson ruled out for this game. Johnson, however, doesn’t have an injury designation after practicing fully on Thursday or Friday. I still like the Broncos because of the spot, but I won’t be betting them.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There are no surprise injuries in this game. The sharps are also split, with some pro money coming in on the Broncos at +4.5 and other pro money coming in on the Eagles -3.5. I’m still leaning toward the Broncos. The best line is +4 -110 at BetMGM and Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Broncos.

The Eagles play a divisional game in four days.

The Spread. Edge: Eagles.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -6.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -5.5.

Computer Model: Eagles -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Denver: 58% (116,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

Sean Payton is 15-9 ATS after Monday Night Football.

Eagles are 8-19 ATS before playing the Giants since December 2010.

Opening Line: Eagles -4.5.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Sunny, 79 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Giants didn’t have the best offensive showing last week. They scored 21 points, but 11 of those came on Justin Herbert interceptions. Still, there was some incredible energy at the Meadowlands that we haven’t seen in some time. Jaxson Dart was electric with his dynamic scrambling ability.

Dart composed himself well for his first start, especially when considering the level of talent he was battling. The Chargers rank sixth in defensive EPA, yet Dart refrained from making any major mistakes and picked up some key third downs. This matchup will be even easier for him because the Saints rank 29th in defensive EPA. A huge reason for that is the Saints’ inability to get to the quarterback. They have only 41 pressures through four games, whereas the Chargers have 74 in as many contests.

Dart will have so much more time in the pocket than he had in his initial start. The downside is that he won’t have Malik Nabers at his disposal, but the Saints can’t cover anyone, so Darius Slayton and Wan’Dale Robinson project well. Cam Skattebo doesn’t have as promising of a matchup, but he’ll be able to pick up some tough yards.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Giants have some major defensive flaws, but the one thing they can do extremely well is generate heat on opposing passers. They have 83 pressures in four games, so they’ll be able to hound Spencer Rattler, who won’t have at least one starting offensive lineman in this game.

Rattler is coming off a semi-decent performance in Buffalo, but he was battling a Bills defense missing two key players. The Giants just forced Justin Herbert into two turnovers that gave them 11 free points, so it’s not very far-fetched to expect the same from Rattler.

The Saints, however, can keep this from happening by keeping it safe on the ground. While the Giants have a great pass rush, they are very poor at stopping the run. Omarion Hampton just had a monster game against them, so Alvin Kamara and Kendre Miller should be able to pick up where he left off.

RECAP: “When garbage plays garbage, take the points.”

Yes, we’ll be taking the points again. And besides, I’m not quite sure if the Giants are complete garbage with Dart at the helm. It was only one start, so perhaps I’m overreacting, but Dart gave the Giants a huge spark that could carry into this game. A big reason why the Giants are 1-3 is because Russell Wilson was atrocious in two losses. If the Giants had better quarterbacking in those contests, they could have perhaps gotten a victory, or at least kept it close against the Redskins and/or Chiefs.

I’m going to ride the Dart train and side with the Giants. However, given that we don’t have much data on Dart, and given that last week’s performance could be a flash in the pan, I’m hesitant to put any money on New York.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Giants are a public dog, as casual bettors are backing them for the Jaxson Dart hype. I don’t want to go against this hype, only because it means siding with the dreadful Saints.

SATURDAY NOTES: I was wondering why there was sharp money coming in on the Saints recently, and it could be because the Giants have some defensive injury issues. Dexter Lawrence looks unlikely to play this game, which would be a huge loss for New York.

FINAL THOUGHTS: All of the questionable players are playing. The Giants will have Dexter Lawrence, while the Saints will have Taysom Hill and all of their offensive linemen, save for Cesar Ruiz, who was already ruled out. The sharps are on the Saints, and if you didn’t catch it, I switched my pick to New Orleans. I’m not betting this game, however. If you want to tail the sharps, the best line is New Orleans -1.5 -105 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Giants.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Giants -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Giants -1.5.

Computer Model: Giants -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Saints.

Tons of money on the Giants.

Percentage of money on New York: 82% (120,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Pick.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Texans.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: I’m going to date myself and my Web site here, but back when I first began handicapping the NFL on WalterFootball.com in 1999, I recall that sportsbooks would sometimes take forever to post point spreads if a quarterback was uncertain to play. One specific game stood out to me. It was 2003, and the Jaguars were set to battle the Texans. Houston was unlikely to have David Carr or its second-string quarterback available, but there’s a chance they’d be able to give it a go. Because the sportsbooks had no clue who would play quarterback, they didn’t post a line until a couple of hours prior to kickoff. Houston’s quarterback ended up being David Ragone. The Jaguars won 27-0.

I was reminded of this Sunday night because I didn’t see a spread in the Ravens game. Sportsbooks nowadays will always post a spread because there’s so much competition, but no one had anything on the Ravens because of Lamar Jackson’s uncertainty. That’s how important Jackson is for the Ravens. He was considered the MVP favorite for a reason, but now the spread says that he will be out with a hamstring injury because Baltimore is a small home underdog. The advance line was Baltimore -9.5!

Cooper Rush is an OK backup, but unless he’s battling a soft opponent, he needs everything around him to be ideal to succeed. The Texans are certainly not soft, as they have a talented defense that just pitched a shutout. The Ravens have had some blocking issues in recent weeks, and that was with Jackson and his mobility. Rush will obviously not be able to escape the pocket. His only hope is relying on Derrick Henry, who might actually be able to get some yardage because the Texans, while stellar against the pass, have allowed decent yardage to opposing backs.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: If Jackson happened to be the only major injured player on the roster, the Ravens could perhaps rally around him. It looked like they’d have a strong defense heading into the year, after all, thanks to the number of impressive additions they made during the offseason.

Unfortunately for the Ravens, Jackson is far from the only injured player on the team. The Ravens were already down Justin Madubuike and Kyle Van Noy heading into Week 4, and now we know they won’t have Madubuike because he’s out for the year. We don’t know about Van Noy’s status, but Baltimore lost a ridiculous number of players to injury against the Texans. Roquan Smith and Marlon Humphrey will be out for several weeks. Nate Wiggins was carted off into the locker room with an elbow injury.

Baltimore’s defense is a mess right now, but is it bad enough for even the Texans to have a chance? I think so, for two reasons. First, Houston’s major problem is pass protection, but the Ravens don’t generate pressure on the quarterback. Thanks to Madubuike’s absence, they have just 65 pressures through four weeks, so C.J. Stroud might actually have a chance to locate downfield receivers in this game. Second, the Texans established Woody Marks, who gave the team a much-needed punch in the backfield. Marks, unlike Nick Chubb, is very explosive and can be a factor in the passing attack. We’ve seen the Ravens struggle against the run, so Marks should be able to perform well.

RECAP: I don’t understand how we can possibly back the Ravens unless they’re getting at least a field goal. This team is diminished. Not only is Jackson sidelined, but the team can’t pass protect or stop anyone because of the massive injuries on defense.

I especially hate this matchup for Rush. I like siding with reserve quarterbacks on good teams when they’re playing non-elite defenses, but the problem with that is Baltimore is no longer a good team because of all the injuries, and the Texans have elite talent on their defense. Rush even saw this Houston defense last year, and he was abysmal against them. Rush threw an interception and fumbled twice versus Houston. He threw for decent yardage, but that occurred in garbage time.

Siding with the Texans may not be appealing because of their record and poor blocking, but remember that they were very close to defeating the Rams and Buccaneers, two teams that are better than this current Baltimore roster. I don’t know if you’d consider the Jaguars better, but the Texans nearly beat them as well. In fact, Houston’s three defeats this year have all been by one score, so we know that they can at least keep this game close.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Take a look at Baltimore’s injury report if you get the chance. It’s sad. The one positive development is that Kyle Van Noy was limited in Wednesday’s practice, but there’s very little hope for the Ravens at the moment.

PLAYER PROPS: Derrick Henry’s rushing prop seems like it’s way too high. No running back has gained more than 71 rushing yards against the Texans this year, which includes Bucky Irving, Kyren Williams, and Travis Etienne. Henry needs to get to 89 to beat us, and that’ll be with Houston stacking the box. The best number is under 88.5 rushing yards -114 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Ravens aren’t as banged up as originally believed. Now, don’t get me wrong, Baltimore has a crap ton of injuries. However, Kyle Van Noy, Travis Jones, and Nate Wiggins will be able to play. Also, Ronnie Stanley had two limited practices to close out the week. I’m going to hop off this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Friday injury report wasn’t as bad as expected, but the two questionable players on that list – Ronnie Stanley, Kyle Hamilton – are both inactive. It’s pretty rough for Cooper Rush not to have Stanley against Houston’s pass rush. Naturally, the sharps are slamming the Texans. I can understand betting them, but taking such a pedestrian team as a road favorite doesn’t seem like a great proposition. If you want to tail the sharps, the best line is -2.5 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Texans.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Texans -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -9.5.

Computer Model: Texans -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Texans.

Tons of action on the Ravens despite the Lamar Jackson injury.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 76% (97,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Ravens.

John Harbaugh is 15-7 ATS following a loss of 10+.

Opening Line: Ravens -9.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Sunny, 77 degrees. Light wind.