2025 NFL Picks – Week 6: Titans at Raiders

The Matchup. Edge: Raiders.

Video of the Week: When my son was born, all I could do while he slept in my arms was watch Sudoku puzzles. This was the channel I tuned into, and this video solves a Sudoku with only one given number (just fast forward through the birthday announcements):

Oh, bobbins!

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: It’s safe to say that things didn’t go according to plan for the Raiders in last week’s 40-6 blowout loss to the Colts. Moving the ball was incredibly difficult, as Geno Smith didn’t have any time in the pocket. This was not surprising, given that Las Vegas’ already-poor offensive line was missing its best blocker, Kolton Miller.

Miller won’t be back for this game, but the good news is that the Raiders will be going up against a team that has a far worse pass rush than the Colts. The Titans have just 70 pressures through five contests, so Smith will have more time in the pocket than usual. He’ll be able to attack a Tennessee secondary that is sorely lacking in talent.

The Titans have other problems defensively. They haven’t been able to stop the run since losing T’Vondre Sweat to injury. They have the sixth-worst run defense in the NFL, so Ashton Jeanty figures to have the same sort of performance he enjoyed versus the Bears.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Like the Titans, the Raiders don’t generate much pressure on the quarterback. That may seem odd, given that Maxx Crosby is one of the defensive starters, but no one else is able to get to the quarterback. Of the 74 pressures the team has through five games, Crosby has logged 19. Only one other Raider defender has more than nine, and that would be Malcolm Koonce and his 11 pressures.

The Raiders, however, might have some success in getting to Cam Ward. The Titans have a pedestrian offensive line with some injuries, so I could see Crosby dominating this game. Ward has taken a ton of sacks thus far this year, so he could be brought down on several more occasions.

Ward won’t exactly be able to lean on Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears either. Despite what we saw last week in Indianapolis, the Raiders are seventh against the run. Pollard won’t be able to get much, meaning Ward will often be in long-yardage situations against Crosby.

RECAP: I haven’t bet the Raiders yet this year, but I guess there’s a first time for everything. We’ve been able to avoid this Raiders disaster through five weeks, but the value has finally given us a nice opportunity.

The advance line on this game was Raiders -6.5. This spread is now -4.5, moving through the key number of six. That automatically puts the Raiders into consideration as a play. If you’re not convinced, think about it this way: The Cardinals were -7.5 versus Tennessee. They didn’t cover, but they would have if renowned idiot Emari Demercado didn’t drop the ball shy of the goal line. Arizona is not much better than Las Vegas – they’re six spots apart in my NFL Power Rankings – so how is there a three-point difference between the two lines?

And sure, the Titans just won, but I think that goes against them. Horrible teams often have issues sustaining success, so I don’t think we’re going to see the Titans at their best in this game. Of course, Tennessee already sucks, so an even worse version of the team is going to be truly putrid.

Conversely, the Raiders are coming off four consecutive losses. They’re a well-coached veteran team desperate for a win. Part of the reason the Raiders are 1-4 is their difficult schedule. Outside of the Week 4 contest against the Bears, which was a blown potential victory, the Raiders have played nothing but Group B opponents. They’ve gone against the Chargers (when they were at full strength), the Redskins, and the Colts. The Titans are the worst team the Raiders have faced by far, and they’ll be fully focused to snap this horrible losing streak.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’d be nice to have Brock Bowers for our impending bet on the Raiders. Unfortunately, he missed practice on Wednesday, so he’s not off to a good start.

SATURDAY NOTES: I was hoping for Brock Bowers to return, but he’s been ruled out already. The Titans will be getting JC Latham back from injury. Still, the Raiders look like the right side.

PLAYER PROPS: Ashton Jeanty has been a disappointing producer this season, but he’s battled some tough defenses. This is an easy matchup, much like the one he saw in Week 4 against the Bears. The best number is over 75.5 rushing yards -113 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Nothing new here, as the Raiders still look like a solid pick.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Titans, perhaps because of the Brock Bowers news. I don’t think that will impact the result of this game. The best line is Raiders -3.5 -107 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Raiders.

The Titans are a horrible team coming off a win. The Raiders have lost four in a row.

The Spread. Edge: Raiders.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Raiders -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Raiders -6.5.

Computer Model: Raiders -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Tennessee: 55% (106,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Raiders.

Raiders are 20-36 ATS as home favorites since November 2005.

Opening Line: Raiders -6.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Dome.