2025 NFL Picks – Week 6: Seahawks at Jaguars

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: I worried about Trevor Lawrence’s ability to move the chains consistently without a strong running game last week because the Chiefs are capable of stopping ground attacks. Lawrence ended up winning the game and made some big plays in the process, though he was bailed out on some occasions. I still can’t believe three Kansas City players dropped a potential interception in a 14-0 game. And I can’t believe Lawrence wasn’t touched when he slipped and fell on the final drive.

Lawrence will have a similar matchup this week. The Seahawks are stout against the run, so Travis Etienne once again won’t do much on the ground. It’ll be up to Lawrence to carry the team again.

Though Lawrence came through in the clutch on Monday night, I don’t really have faith that he can do that again. Lawrence has been very shaky at times this year, even in easy matchups like against Cincinnati. He seems to be good for multiple interceptions each week. Perhaps the Seattle defenders will be able to catch the ball.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: I was similarly worried about Sam Darnold succeeding last week. The Seahawks are such a run-based team, but they wouldn’t be able to run on the Buccaneers’ No. 1 ground defense. Sure enough, the Seahawks barely gave Kenneth Walker any carries – and of course, he somehow went over his rushing yards total – but they were still able to score points via Darnold’s brilliance.

I don’t know if we can expect Darnold to have similar performances on a consistent basis, so it’s a good thing for the Seahawks that they’ll be able to run more effectively in this matchup. The Jaguars are just in the middle of the pack versus the rush, so Walker and Zach Charbonnet figure to perform well.

Darnold will be able to capitalize off favorable down-and-distance situations to continue to find Jaxon Smith-Njigba for big gains. Jacksonville’s pass rush took a hit with Travon Walker sidelined on Monday night. Walker may not be able to play on a shortened work week.

RECAP: I can’t quite figure out this game. Both teams have winning records, but I don’t fully trust either. I think we’ll be able to fade both teams against better competition down the stretch, but they’re playing against each other this week, so that’s not exactly helpful.

I’m going to side with the Seahawks because they just lost, while the Jaguars are coming off a short week and a win. That’s not exactly the best edge, however.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s a lot of public money coming in on the Seahawks, which makes them look less appealing. I don’t really side with the Jaguars either.

SATURDAY NOTES: Both teams have some injury issues. The Jaguars won’t have Brenton Strange (placed on IR) and their center, Robert Hainsey. However, the Jaguars are the healthier team because the Seahawks have cluster injuries in the secondary. They’re missing two cornerbacks – Devon Witherspoon, Tariq Woolen – and a safety, Julian Love. I could see switching to the Jaguars, but I’ll stay with the Seahawks.

PLAYER PROPS: The Seahawks have the worst tight end defense in the NFL. Every tight end over hits against them. I’m betting Hunter Long over 22.5 receiving yards -114 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Still no interest in betting this game. The sharps haven’t touched it either. The best line is Seattle -1 -102 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Pick.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Jaguars -1.

Computer Model: Pick.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Slight action on the Seahawks.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 63% (117,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Jaguars are 68-113 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Jaguars are 23-54 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2007.

Jaguars are 18-31 ATS as home favorites since 2008. ???

Opening Line: Pick.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 73 degrees. Light wind.