NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 6, 2025 – Early Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2025): 9-2-1 (+$890)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2025): 9-7 (-$725)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2025): 7-9 (-$925)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2025): 6-10 (-$1,285)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2025): 6-10 (+$410)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2025): 8-6 (-$25)
2025 NFL Picks: 45-44-1 (-$1,660)

2024 NFL Picks: 144-136-12 (-$1,380)
NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Oct. 12, 11:25 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 6 NFL Picks – Late Games

The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

You may have noticed the site has a new look. Yes, after nearly two decades, we’ve finally re-designed our site to be more modern. This was not done on a whim, but rather out of necessity because of what occurred during the 2023 NFL Draft. Our site crashed during the entire first day of the draft, which was disastrous for our revenue stream because we make more money during the draft than any other time. The site crashed because a line of code conflicted with the old format of the site, so we had to transition to this new look.

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Week 5 Analysis: Aside from one game, Week 5 was pretty great. Unfortunately, the bad beats continued in this historic season.

I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Vikings, 3 units (win): You could argue that we got lucky with this one. I would then counter by pointing out that the Vikings lost two fumbles in Cleveland territory. Losing this one because of the two fumbles would have been a tilting way to start the day, but things worked out well for once.

Jets, 3 units (loss): Man, what the hell was this? How did the Jets not score often against Dallas’ awful defense? How did the Cowboys protect Dak Prescott despite missing four starting offensive linemen? This result makes me feel like looking at injury reports is a complete waste of time.

Colts, 5 units (win): I’m mad about this. We won five units here, but I completely forgot to bet the -20.5 alt line, which I planned on doing. Why did I forget? Because I was too preoccupied with the second half of the f**king London game, that’s why. These London games screw us all the time, one way or another.

Cardinals, 5 units (loss): I thought losing the Rams +3.5 on the blocked field goal returned for a touchdown was the worst beat of all time, but this may have been worse. The Cardinals were up 21-6 in this game when Emari Demercado broke free for a long touchdown run to extend the lead to 28-6 in the fourth quarter. Except, the f**king idiot dropped the ball shy of the goal line. Seven points were wiped off the board. This game would have been over at that point, but instead, the Titans had new life. And yet, the Cardinals appeared to end the game with an interception, but the intercepting player inexplicably dropped the ball, which was kicked into the end zone and recovered by the one Tennessee player in the area when there were way more Cardinals around the ball. How the f**k does this happen to us every week? These sorts of bad beats occur once, maybe twice per year, but it’s every single f**king week with us. Every week is a -$1,000 swing for us. Had the Cardinals rightfully covered, we would have won a grand, but instead we broke even. Every week, it’s the same f**king thing.

Chargers, 3 units (loss): It’s worth noting that I switched off three units on the Texans to bet three units on the Chargers. This was a dumb decision. I just assumed Jayden Daniels would be rusty in his return to action, but he certainly was not.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Eagles better run the ball more than six times this week. Despite being ahead of the Broncos for most of the afternoon, Saquon Barkley was given just six attempts. This was inexplicable, and Philadelphia would be foolish to repeat this strategy again.

One obvious reason doing so would be foolish is that the Giants have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. We know that Barkley will be motivated to battle his former team for the second time, so I would expect a huge performance out of him.

Jalen Hurts may not have to do much in this game, but if he does, he’ll have an easy time dissecting New York’s flawed secondary, thanks to short-yardage opportunities. Also, the strength of the Giants’ defense is their edge rush, and Philadelphia can neutralize that with its great tackle play.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: While the Eagles can thwart the Giants’ pass rush, New York won’t be able to do the same concerning Philadelphia’s pass rush. The Eagles have logged 98 pressures through five weeks, which includes the dismal Week 1 outing in which Jalen Carter didn’t play. Jaxson Dart isn’t protected well, so the Eagles will be able to hound the rookie quarterback.

It would be helpful for Dart if he had Malik Nabers at his disposal, but the talented receiver is done for the year. Darius Slayton also got hurt versus the Saints, so it’s fair to wonder how the Giants are going to be able to move the chains.

Establishing Cam Skattebo won’t work so well either. The Eagles are solid against the run, ranking 12th against it. So, while Skattebo won’t be completely stymied, he won’t have a ton of rushing success.

RECAP: I definitely like the Eagles. They’re the far better team, and they’re coming off a loss. Being the superior team gives them a huge advantage on a short week because the Giants won’t have enough time to formulate a great game plan to defeat a far superior opponent.

My rule for Thursdays is to back the better team as long as they’re focused. Will the Eagles be focused? I think so, given that they jut lost to Denver, but I’m not quite certain. As a team with extensive playoff success, the Eagles care about winning in January and February; not October. So, even though the Eagles just suffered a defeat, I don’t think it’s a guarantee that they’ll perform up to their abilities, given that they’re battling such an inferior foe.

If I had strong conviction that the Eagles would bring 100 percent to this game, I’d make a five-unit wager on them. However, given that I’m not so sure about their effort level, I’m going to limit this bet to two units.

Our Week 6 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Jalen Carter’s status is unknown. If Carter sits out, I won’t have a bet on the Eagles, given that we’ve seen how bad Philadelphia’s defensive line is without him.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: I’m confused about Cam Skattebo’s receptions number. It’s only 2.5, yet in the two losses since taking over as the starter, he has caught six passes in each of those games. The best number is over 2.5 +105 at BetRivers.

We’re going to parlay the Skattebo receptions number, Theo Johnson over 3.5 receptions, and Jaxson Dart over 37.5 rushing yards. This $25 parlay can be boosted by 30 percent on FanDuel, and it pays $152.80. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I was willing to bet the Eagles earlier in the week, but they’ll be without Jalen Carter and Landon Dickerson. As we learned from the Cowboys game, Carter’s absence is extremely crucial. Also, it’s worth noting that the Eagles haven’t won by more than seven against anyone all year. The sharp haven’t touched this game. I’m going to drop this from two units to 0.25. The reason for the 0.25 is because DraftKings is offering a $25 no-sweat bet for this game. The best line is -7 -120 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Eagles.

The Eagles are coming off a loss, but still may not be focused.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -8.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -7.5.

Computer Model: Eagles -6.

The Vegas. Edge: Giants.

Decent action on the Eagles.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 65% (78,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Giants.

History: Eagles have won 29 the last 35 meetings.

Jalen Hurts is 10-15 ATS as a road favorite.

Opening Line: Eagles -7.5.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Clear, 52 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Broncos.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

BOYCOTT GAME: I will be boycotting this game, and I urge all of you to do the same. When the NFL had one game in Europe and played it at 1 p.m. Eastern, I was fine with it. Two games began pushing it, and then three games were unacceptable. Now, there are seven European games, and they all begin at 6:30 a.m. on the West Coast, which absolutely screws everyone living in that time zone. Football needs to be in America; not Europe. The NFL needs to go back to just one European game. Tell Roger Goodell to f**k off and buy this Make Football American Again t-shirt:

DENVER OFFENSE: Bo Nix didn’t perform well in the first half of last week’s game, but he caught fire when it mattered. He shredded Philadelphia’s secondary in the fourth quarter, leading the team back from a 17-3 deficit.

Nix should continue to thrive in an easier matchup. The Jets are better against the pass than the run, but they’re still awful against the pass, as we saw last week when Dak Prescott torched them despite missing four offensive linemen. The Broncos protect much better than the Cowboys, so Nix will have all the time he’ll need to locate his receivers for big gains.

As mentioned, the Jets are even worse against the run than the pass. J.K. Dobbins just rushed for 100 yards two weeks ago, and I don’t think it’ll be too difficult for him to duplicate that feat.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Justin Fields is an exciting player who can run circles around helpless defenders. He’s a great highlight-reel quarterback, but unfortunately for Fields, that doesn’t translate into wins in the NFL.

Fields was truly horrendous against the Cowboys. The stats don’t look bad, but most of Fields’ production came in garbage time. The offensive line betrayed him at times, but Fields couldn’t consistently move the ball even when he had time. Given that the Broncos have the No. 1 pass rush in the NFL, Fields will be in for even more pain.

Fields has just one viable threat at his disposal. This threat is a very good one in Garrett Wilson, but the Broncos can delete Wilson by putting Patrick Surtain II on him. Denver can otherwise focus on putting the clamps on Fields and Breece Hall whenever they try to pick up yardage on the ground.

RECAP: My rule for international games is the same one as the one I have for Thursday games: Back the superior team as long as they’re focused. The reason for this is that the inferior team won’t have the adequate preparation time it needs to overcome a difficult opponent.

I don’t need to tell you that the Broncos are the superior team. They’re very close to being 5-0, while the Jets are a complete dumpster fire. They’ve been blown out by superior competition this year, and they’ve thrown away games versus on-par opponents. The Broncos are obviously far superior, so this should be a blowout.

The question remains: Will the Broncos be focused? I think there’s a good chance they will be, given that this is an international stage. However, the Broncos just had such a signature win over the Eagles that included a fourth-quarter comeback, so I don’t think it’s impossible that they’ll show up a bit flat in London, especially when considering that this is an absurd 7:30 a.m. local start time for them.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’ve done a lot of thinking about the Denver spot, and I’ve come to the conclusion that this is not a bad situation for the Broncos. Sure, they’re coming off a big win versus the Eagles, but this is an international stage, which is unfamiliar to them. This is only the second time the Broncos have played in London since they originally did so in 2010, so this is the first time for a lot of these players. I’m going to bet the Broncos.

BETTING PROMO: BetMGM has a no-sweat bet, up to $20. I’m going to put it on Denver -7.5 -105.

SATURDAY NOTES: Outside of a couple of players – Ben Powers for the Broncos; Michael Carter for the Jets – these teams will be entering this game mostly healthy. I still like the Broncos for a three-unit play.

PLAYER PROPS: The Jets have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. Three opposing backs have rushed for 99 yards or more through five weeks against them. The best number for J.K. Dobbins is over 67.5 rushing yards -114 at BetRivers.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Two more of these London games before we can take a break from this international s**t. The sharps haven’t touched this game for the most part, but there’s been a bit of pro money coming in on the Jets. The best line is -7 +100 at Bookmaker. FanDuel, however, has a 30-percent profit boost for a game, up to $25. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Jets.

The Broncos are coming off a signature win versus the Eagles.

The Spread. Edge: Broncos.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Broncos -10.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Broncos -6.5.

Computer Model: Broncos -10.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

Slight lean on the Broncos.

Percentage of money on New York: 63% (51,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Broncos -7.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 62 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were: 34-42 in 2020, 48-37 in 2021, 32-35-1 in 2022, 31-27 ATS in 2023, and 49-45 in 2024. The public was 3-14 heading into Week 4.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Lions -9.5

Giants +2.5

Ravens -3.5

Cardinals -7.5

The public went 1-4 in Week 1, 1-3 in Week 2, 0-3 in Week 3, 1-4 in Week 4, and 1-3 in Week 5. No one is going to have money for Christmas presents at this rate.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Lions +2.5

Jets +7

Cowboys -3.5

Jets +7 is shocking. The other two are not.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: I can’t say Dillon Gabriel had a poor debut. Granted, I wasn’t expecting much, especially against Minnesota’s No. 1-ranked defense, but Gabriel outperformed what I thought he would do in his initial start. Don’t get me wrong; he wasn’t great, or even good, but at least he didn’t commit countless turnovers like we saw from Joe Flacco in the first four weeks of the season.

Gabriel will face an easier test this week. The Steelers are known to have a great defense, but they’ve struggled on that side of the ball this year. They rank 24th in defensive EPA, though their pass rush is still strong. They have 83 pressures through four games, so Cleveland will need to protect Gabriel well on the edge. The Browns traded for Cam Robinson, so he could be used to upgrade the blind-side protection, which has been dismal.

The primary method of successful offense the Browns will have is running the ball with Quinshon Judkins. The rookie running back has been tremendous, and he has a terrific matchup against a Steelers defense that has been ranked in the middle of the pack this year.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Steelers won’t have as much success running the ball. First of all, neither of their runners – Jaylen Warren or Kenneth Gainwell – is nearly as talented as Judkins. Second, Cleveland is much stronger against the run than Pittsburgh. The Browns rank second versus the rush, so they’ll be able to put the clamps on Pittsburgh’s ground attack.

And third, the Steelers don’t have a very good offensive line. Pittsburgh has struggled to pass protect this year, which is quite the challenge against the Myles Garrett-led Cleveland defensive line.

Aaron Rodgers will have to release the ball quickly, as usual. The Steelers will have some success utilizing this strategy because DK Metcalf can make big plays, but sustaining consistent drives will prove to be difficult.

RECAP: I imagine the Steelers will garner lots of interest because the spot is so obvious. They’re coming off a bye, while Cleveland is playing its third-consecutive road game after coming back from England. However, this is evident to everyone, so I imagine it’s baked into the line.

Besides, traveling back from London is not a big deal, as teams have had a .500 record following these international games without taking a bye. It’s not like they’re sailing on the Titanic, or anything, so the Browns should be able to play up to their normal ability. In fact, I’d argue that the Steelers also have an unfavorable spot because they have to play a divisional game in four days.

With that in mind, I’m inclined to side with the Browns. They have the superior defense and running game, and while Pittsburgh has the better quarterback, it’s not like Rodgers is what he once was.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No change here. I don’t expect to bet on either side unless there are some major injuries.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Steelers are healthier off the bye, as they’ll have Alex Highsmith, Joey Porter Jr., and Jaylen Warren back from injury. It’s no surprise to see the line move to -6. Despite getting more value at +6, I still don’t want to bet the Browns.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There are no surprise injuries, and there is no sharp action on either side. The best line for the Browns is +6 -106 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Browns.

The Steelers play in four days.

The Spread. Edge: Browns.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Steelers -5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Steelers -6.

Computer Model: Steelers -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

Slight lean on the Steelers.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 60% (109,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

History: Steelers have won 40 of the last 50 meetings excluding a 2018 tie.

Aaron Rodgers is 136-100 ATS since 2009.

Opening Line: Steelers -5.5.

Opening Total: 37.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 61 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Colts.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s three pieces of hate mail:

One of my favorite things is when I get a hate response before the game I pick is finished. Kurt didn’t like my Vikings pick when the Vikings were losing, but there was no congratulations or thank you when they covered. Interesting.

Moving on elsewhere, a Magic: The Gathering associated company called Card Titan recently banned someone just for wearing a MAGA hat. Card Titan is a garbage company, and naturally, there were garbage humans defending their actions. I responded to them:

HOW DARE YOU WEAR A RED HAT YOUR EVIL!!! Idiots.

Meanwhile, an MTG player named Ross Merriam, who, if I had to guess, probably likes little boys a bit too much, had something to say about this topic. I replied:

Oh no, not the MAGA doctrine! “I want to keep more of the money I pay in taxes! I want to own guns for self defense! I don’t want children mutilated and sexualized!” Oh, the horror!

Ross, by the way, blocked me – likely before attending his weekly NAMBLA meeting.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: I’m so sick of this stupid Cardinals team. I don’t want to write about them. I’m so tired of seeing them do stupid stuff, like Emari Demercado dropping the ball shy of the goal line, or Kyler Murray getting hit in the face with a shotgun snap. I haven’t forgotten the surrendered fourth-and-16 to Brycen Tremaine. And don’t get me started on that dropped interception that was kicked into the end zone. Why can’t we get one of those crazy plays to go our way?

Part of the reason the Cardinals keep surrendering back-door covers (and inexplicable losses) is because they can’t run the ball. Michael Carter is pedestrian at best, while Demercado should not be wearing an NFL uniform. The Colts are stout against the run, so Arizona won’t do much on the ground.

The Cardinals can at least protect Kyler Murray well – or Jacoby Brissett if he has to start for an injured Murray – and they’ll do just that against the Colts. Murray/Brissett will have a chance to make plays by targeting Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride. The Colts haven’t battled a quality tight end yet this year – they managed to avoid Brock Bowers last week – so we’ll see what McBride will be able to accomplish.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: I can safely say that the Cardinals have good defensive talent, yet don’t have a good defense overall. This is because Jonathan Gannon has no clue how to coach and always goes into prevent in the fourth quarter. As the old saying goes, if you play prevent, you’re only preventing yourself from winning. Gannon, who apologized like a giant wuss for rightfully yelling at Demercado, has apparently never heard of this expression and might just be too stupid to understand it.

At any rate, teams need to be good against the run to have a prayer against Indianapolis’ offense because Jonathan Taylor has been so dominant this year. The Cardinals aren’t viewed as having a tough run defense, but they’re actually sixth against ground attacks. It’s tough to completely shut down Taylor, but they can at least limit him.

The Cardinals can also cover receivers fairly well now that Will Johnson is back from injury. However, they seem to be weak to tight ends, which will spell trouble against highly impressive rookie Tyler Warren.

RECAP: I personally don’t care if Murray misses this game. If anything, it gives us more points to work with by selecting the Cardinals.

Everyone wants to write off Arizona, but doing so, from a betting perspective, is a mistake. The Cardinals are 2-3, but all three of their losses have come in the final seconds. They can’t beat good teams, but they can at least hang around with them.

I suspect they’ll bounce back after such an embarrassing defeat, much like the Colts did twice after their pre-end zone drops. The Colts, conversely, could be flat off their blowout win.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Kyler Murray missed Wednesday’s practice, causing the spread to move to -7. It sounds like Jacoby Brissett may start this game. I think I’d switch to the Colts if Brissett were to be named the starter.

SATURDAY NOTES: We still don’t have definitive news on Kyler Murray. He missed practice Wednesday and Thursday, but was limited on Friday and is listed as questionable. Murray playing at less than 100 percent instead of Jacoby Brissett would make me feel better about betting the Colts. But I’m not betting this game, so that doesn’t matter.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Kyler Murray is inactive. Despite this, there’s late sharp action coming in on the Cardinals. The pros bet Arizona at +9.5 and +9. The best line is +9 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Cardinals.

Coming off a big win, the Colts could look past the Cardinals with the Chargers up next week.

The Spread. Edge: Cardinals.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Colts -4.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Colts -3.5.

Computer Model: Colts -7.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.

Lots of action on the Colts.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 70% (111,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

Kyler Murray is 21-10 ATS as an underdog.

Opening Line: Colts -5.5.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

We have a new section on the site! we have a place for WalterFootball.com Video Content. We’ll be releasing short videos (8-20 minutes) on this page, with a new video each day. It’ll be a quick way to get NFL picks, fantasy football, and NFL Draft content.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Well, that was pathetic. Cooper Rush stood no chance against the Texans. He was crushed in the pocket by Houston’s excellent pass rushers and turned the ball over as a result. And yet, he’ll have to start at least one more game, as Lamar Jackson looks to return after the Week 7 bye.

The Texans have a great defense, so Rush didn’t stand a chance. Unfortunately for Rush, he’ll have a similar matchup in this game because the Rams are also dominant defensively. They can generate a great pass rush, so there will be more turnovers from Rush. The Rams are also great against the run, so don’t expect anything from Derrick Henry.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: It doesn’t get any better on this side of the ball for the Ravens. They’re missing countless starters, and as a result, they allowed the Texans to look like the Greatest Show on Turf last week. This is a Houston team that scored just six points in the opening half against Tennessee.

The Rams obviously have a much better offense than the Texans, so they’ll do whatever they please against the Ravens. Matthew Stafford will continue to stay hot as he targets Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, and I’m sure we’ll see better ball security from the Rams running backs after last week’s debacle.

RECAP: This is probably the easiest bet of the week. It has to be on the Rams, and it has to be for at least five units.

The Ravens are a dumpster fire right now. Their defense is abysmal, while their quarterback play can be described as such as well. I love fading backup quarterbacks against top defenses, and the Rams rank seventh in defensive EPA.

Meanwhile, the Rams will be focused. They just lost on a national stage to their divisional rivals. They’ll be focused on winning this game. And by the way, don’t let the early start time for Los Angeles worry you. Sean McVay is 10-6 against the spread in 1 p.m. East Coast games.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Ravens might be getting Kyle Hamilton back from injury because he was limited in practice, but he wouldn’t be enough to solve all of Baltimore’s issues.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Ravens aren’t as banged up as we initially thought. They’re still missing some key players, but they’ll be getting back Kyle Hamilton, Marlon Humphrey, and Ronnie Stanley. We don’t know how healthy those players are exactly, but the Ravens will have a chance to be more competitive. Still though, the Rams look like the right side, even if this is a wet and windy game. Weather projections are calling for rain and 16-25 mph winds, which will benefit the team that can run the ball more effectively. That would be the Rams.

PLAYER PROPS: We faded Derrick Henry last week, and we’re doing so again. Henry doesn’t have the same rushing edge as he does without Lamar Jackson, and the Rams have limited Jonathan Taylor, Christian McCaffrey, and Saquon Barkley to fewer than 77 rushing yards each over the past three weeks. The best number is under 73.5 rushing yards -111 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The weather doesn’t look terrible for this game. It’ll be windy, but not insanely so. There was no sharp action on either side until this morning when the pros came in on the Ravens at +7. The best line is -7 -104 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link. I’m going to use a second-chance bet from DraftKings to pay $25 for this.

I’m also betting the alt line of -20.5. The best alt line is -20.5 +470 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Rams.

The Rams will look to bounce back from their national-stage loss.

The Spread. Edge: Rams.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -11.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Rams -5.5.

Computer Model: Rams -10.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.

Late money coming in on the Rams.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 75% (113,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Sean McVay is 10-6 ATS in 1 p.m. East Coast games.

John Harbaugh is 15-8 ATS following a loss of 10+.

Opening Line: Rams -6.5.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Rain, 64 degrees. MILD/HEAVY WINDS, 16 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Futures page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: I worried about Trevor Lawrence’s ability to move the chains consistently without a strong running game last week because the Chiefs are capable of stopping ground attacks. Lawrence ended up winning the game and made some big plays in the process, though he was bailed out on some occasions. I still can’t believe three Kansas City players dropped a potential interception in a 14-0 game. And I can’t believe Lawrence wasn’t touched when he slipped and fell on the final drive.

Lawrence will have a similar matchup this week. The Seahawks are stout against the run, so Travis Etienne once again won’t do much on the ground. It’ll be up to Lawrence to carry the team again.

Though Lawrence came through in the clutch on Monday night, I don’t really have faith that he can do that again. Lawrence has been very shaky at times this year, even in easy matchups like against Cincinnati. He seems to be good for multiple interceptions each week. Perhaps the Seattle defenders will be able to catch the ball.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: I was similarly worried about Sam Darnold succeeding last week. The Seahawks are such a run-based team, but they wouldn’t be able to run on the Buccaneers’ No. 1 ground defense. Sure enough, the Seahawks barely gave Kenneth Walker any carries – and of course, he somehow went over his rushing yards total – but they were still able to score points via Darnold’s brilliance.

I don’t know if we can expect Darnold to have similar performances on a consistent basis, so it’s a good thing for the Seahawks that they’ll be able to run more effectively in this matchup. The Jaguars are just in the middle of the pack versus the rush, so Walker and Zach Charbonnet figure to perform well.

Darnold will be able to capitalize off favorable down-and-distance situations to continue to find Jaxon Smith-Njigba for big gains. Jacksonville’s pass rush took a hit with Travon Walker sidelined on Monday night. Walker may not be able to play on a shortened work week.

RECAP: I can’t quite figure out this game. Both teams have winning records, but I don’t fully trust either. I think we’ll be able to fade both teams against better competition down the stretch, but they’re playing against each other this week, so that’s not exactly helpful.

I’m going to side with the Seahawks because they just lost, while the Jaguars are coming off a short week and a win. That’s not exactly the best edge, however.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s a lot of public money coming in on the Seahawks, which makes them look less appealing. I don’t really side with the Jaguars either.

SATURDAY NOTES: Both teams have some injury issues. The Jaguars won’t have Brenton Strange (placed on IR) and their center, Robert Hainsey. However, the Jaguars are the healthier team because the Seahawks have cluster injuries in the secondary. They’re missing two cornerbacks – Devon Witherspoon, Tariq Woolen – and a safety, Julian Love. I could see switching to the Jaguars, but I’ll stay with the Seahawks.

PLAYER PROPS: The Seahawks have the worst tight end defense in the NFL. Every tight end over hits against them. I’m betting Hunter Long over 22.5 receiving yards -114 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Still no interest in betting this game. The sharps haven’t touched it either. The best line is Seattle -1 -102 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Pick.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Jaguars -1.

Computer Model: Pick.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.

Slight action on the Seahawks.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 63% (117,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

Jaguars are 68-113 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Jaguars are 23-54 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2007.

Jaguars are 18-31 ATS as home favorites since 2008. ???

Opening Line: Pick.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 73 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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DALLAS OFFENSE: I don’t understand anything anymore. Seriously. How did the Cowboys score at will against the Jets with four backup offensive linemen on the field? They should have been limited offensively, especially with Quinnen Williams able to dominate an interior comprised of all backups, yet Dallas had an offensive onslaught against the Jets.

Logic dictates that the Cowboys will suffer regression. Of course, that may be difficult to do against the Panthers, but Carolina’s pass rush is better with D.J. Wonnum and Patrick Jones on the field, as we saw last week. Perhaps they’ll do what the Jets couldn’t do and get to Dak Prescott, who likely still won’t have CeeDee Lamb for at least one more week.

The Panthers, however, have a dreadful defense overall. They have major problems stopping the run, so Javonte Williams figures to run well. They also have issues against tight ends, so Jake Ferguson will continue to dominate.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: The other utterly shocking aspect of the Cowboys’ blowout win over the Jets was that New York could barely score any points on the Cowboys’ miserable defense. James Houston has improved the pass rush, but Dallas has lackluster talent on this side of the ball.

I’m not sure the Panthers will be able to capitalize, however. Bryce Young was abysmal in the opening stages of the Miami game, but improved as the afternoon progressed. He’ll have a chance to continue the momentum against a Cowboy defense that couldn’t stop a nose bleed prior to last week’s shocking result.

The Cowboys are especially poor against the run, so perhaps we’ll see another career day from Rico Dowdle. The former Cowboy will be out for revenge after generating a staggering 200 rushing yards.

RECAP: Forgive me for not believing in the Cowboys just yet. They still have severe offensive line issues, while their defense is atrocious. I’m going to chalk their blowout win over the Jets as a fluky result.

However, I don’t really want to bet the Panthers either, especially after a win. I don’t even want to bet them following embarrassing defeats, so I’m not going to bet my hard-earned money on a 5-foot-11 quarterback and one of the worst defenses in the NFL after they celebrated a rare victory.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m going to switch my pick to the Cowboys. Backing the Panthers off a win is likely a losing proposition. Also, the line is now -3, so it’s nice that we don’t get burned by the hook anymore.

SATURDAY NOTES: I thought about betting the Cowboys, but their injury report is longer than a CVS receipt. They’re getting Tyler Guyton back from injury, but Tyler Smith is questionable after being limited all week. Speaking of being limited all week, both Dallas starting outside cornerbacks are questionable after being limited all week. The Cowboys will also be missing their top two slot receivers, CeeDee Lamb and KaVontae Turpin. The Cowboys overcame the injuries against the Jets last week, but I don’t know how sustainable that is.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Cowboys will have Tyler Smith available. The Panthers, meanwhile, won’t have Taylor Moton as a surprise inactive. This is a nice edge for the Cowboys, so I wonder if the sharps regret betting the Panthers at +3.5 earlier this week. If you want to bet Dallas, make sure you get the -2.5 -120 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Panthers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cowboys -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -3.5.

Computer Model: Cowboys -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.

Plenty of action on the Cowboys.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 71% (110,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Cowboys -3.5.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 69 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Chargers.

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SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The Chargers jumped out to a 10-0 lead last week, but failed to score after that. Their offensive line betrayed the rest of the team, and it didn’t help that there were several untimely penalties, including two that wiped out a pair of big gains on the same drive in the second half.

Fortunately for the Chargers, they get to take on the Dolphins, who can’t stop anyone. We just saw Dallas’ horrible defense clamp down on the Jets, and yet the Dolphins couldn’t do anything to stop the Jets when they weren’t fumbling. Miami has a weak pass rush – 74 pressures through five games – and their Storm Duck-less secondary is even worse. Even without Joe Alt’s services, Justin Herbert will have an easy time dissecting the Dolphins.

The Dolphins are just as awful against the run. We saw proof of that last week when Rico Dowdle gained 200 rushing yards against Miami. The Chargers lost Omarion Hampton to injury, but if Dowdle could get to 200 rushing yards, I’m sure the backup Charger running backs can combine for 120 rushing yards or so.

MIAMI OFFENSE: The Dolphins weren’t as bad on this side of the ball against the Panthers, but their offense still really struggled. Following 17 early points they were able to generate off Bryce Young turnovers, Miami scored only seven points the rest of the way against Carolina’s garbage defense.

The Chargers obviously play much better defense than the Panthers. They can generate a fair amount of pressure on the quarterback, which doesn’t bode well for Tua Tagovailoa, who is not protected well at all. Tagovailoa didn’t have a good performance in his first full game without Tyreek Hill, and unfortunately for Tagovailoa, Hill isn’t coming back anytime soon.

The weakness of the Chargers defense is their vulnerability against the run. They’re not terrible versus the rush, but they’re in the bottom half of the league in that regard. The good news for the Chargers is that the Dolphins can’t run the ball consistently because of how horrible their offensive line is, so something has to give in this matchup.

RECAP: I love the Chargers this week. They’re coming off two consecutive losses, and they’re obviously the better team following at least one defeat. They’ll be dialed in to rebound to 4-2 because they’ll be at risk of falling to 3-3. They still have their offensive line issues, but so did the Cowboys, and Dallas demolished a similarly talented team last week. I trust Jim Harbaugh to figure out something with his problematic blocking.

Conversely, the Dolphins are one of the worst teams in the NFL. That was already the case prior to the Hill injury, and now they’re worse. If you don’t agree, consider that their only win is against the hapless 0-5 Jets, who may have won had they not fumbled a billion times. Miami couldn’t even beat the awful Panthers last week.

Despite the obvious talent disparity between the teams, we’re getting great line value. The Chargers were -5.5 on the advance spread, but have fallen to -4 because of their recent losses. I have this priced at -7, so if I’m correct, we’re getting three points of value with two key numbers.

Oh, and if you’re worried about the Chargers playing in an early, cross-country start time, don’t be. Harbaugh is 10-2 against the spread in 1 p.m. East Coast games.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Chargers are making a switch at center. They’re going from Bradley Bozeman to Andre James, which seems like an upgrade. I’m glad Jim Harbaugh is trying to come up with some ideas to fix the poor blocking situation.

SATURDAY NOTES: As if the Chargers’ offensive line couldn’t get worse, they’ll be missing two more blockers this week. Jamaree Salyer and Trey Pipkins are both out, though it must be noted that Pipkins is terrible. Still, he might be better than his replacement, so his absence is not good news. There is good news, however, and that would be that Miami can’t pressure the quarterback, so this could be like the Cowboys winning on the road last week against a very weak opponent. Also, the Chargers look like they’ll have Denzel Perryman back from injury, so their run defense will be much better.

PLAYER PROPS: De’Von Achane has hit the over on rushing yards twice this year, doing so against crappy run defenses. The Chargers, currently ranked in the middle of the pack against the run. The best number is under 59.5 rushing yards -118 at BetMGM, which you can boost to +101.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have been betting the Dolphins all Sunday morning, perhaps because of the news that Quentin Johnston is out. I still love the Chargers, especially at this discounted price. The best line is -3.5 +100 at BetMGM. We have a $20 bonus bet from BetMGM to use here.

I’m also betting the alt line, taking Chargers -16.5 +450 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Chargers.

The Chargers are coming off two losses.

The Spread. Edge: Chargers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chargers -7.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chargers -5.5.

Computer Model: Chargers -4.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on San Angeles: 56% (106,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

Jim Harbaugh is 10-2 ATS in 1 p.m. East Coast games.

Jim Harbaugh is 12-5 ATS after a loss, excluding 2014.

Opening Line: Chargers -5.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Sunny, 79 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Patriots.

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NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Drake Maye had his coming-out party against the Bills on Sunday night. He posted great fantasy performances earlier in the year, but battled some soft opponents in the process. However, he went toe to toe with Josh Allen on national TV. He was excellent, looking like every bit the comparison Stefon Diggs made to Josh Allen prior to the victory.

It makes such a difference that Maye is so well protected this year. Maye had no blocking during his rookie year, but the offensive line is so much better this season. The Saints probably could have gotten to Maye last year, and I say “probably” because their pass rush sucks. They have only 60 pressures through five games, so I’m not sold they could have bothered Maye if this were 2024. They won’t be able to touch Maye now.

Maye will be able to dissect the New Orleans secondary with ease. The Saints have a struggling defensive backfield, so it’s not good for them that Diggs has been heating up the past couple of weeks. The Saints are better against the run, but the Patriots should be able to move the ball on the ground fairly well.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Patriots have made great strides with their defense in addition to their offensive line. They struggled to stop anyone last year, but Mike Vrabel has turned things around very quickly in New England, which can’t be a surprise.

You may have noticed that James Cook didn’t do anything Sunday night. This is because the Patriots are fourth against the run. This is huge against the Saints, who need to move the ball primarily on the ground because Spencer Rattler is a disaster. With Taysom Hill back, it’s more important than ever to be stout versus ground attacks when going against New Orleans.

Rattler is awful when he can’t depend on the run. He’s battled two poor run defenses the past two weeks when going against the Bills and Giants, but this matchup is quite different. Rattler should play like he did versus Seattle in Week 3.

RECAP: I wish the Patriots lost Sunday night so we could bet them here for a few units. Not only would they be hungry off a loss; there’s a chance we’d get -3 after the Saints won their first game.

Unfortunately, both the spot and the line are unfavorable. The Patriots are coming off a statement win at Buffalo, so it seems highly unlikely that they’ll have the same level of intensity for the Saints. They also have to win by more than a field goal when three is the most likely result of any NFL game.

I’m not saying the Patriots can’t cover – I’m actually going to side with them – but this just isn’t the right spot to bet them. I really want to bet the Patriots because the Saints are an abomination, but I’m worried that New England will have a hangover in this contest, kind of like the Falcons did versus the Panthers in Week 3.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: On our live stream, Andy talked about why he loves the Saints this week:

SATURDAY NOTES: Christian Gonzalez popped up on the injury report and is listed as questionable, though he was able to be full in practice twice to end the week. The Saints, meanwhile, have listed Alvin Kamara as questionable after being limited all week. I wonder if they’re going to hold him out because they plan on trading him. At any rate, I’m going to be betting three units on the Patriots, as it dawned one me that we should be fading a horrible team like the Saints off a win. I worry a bit about the Patriots’ spot after a win in Buffalo, but I trust Mike Vrabel to get his team dialed in for this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There was some concern that Milton Williams would be inactive, but he will play. So will Christian Gonzalez. The sharps have been on the Saints this morning. The best line is -3 -114 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Saints.

The Patriots are coming off a huge win in Buffalo, but the Saints also just won.

The Spread. Edge: Patriots.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Patriots -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Patriots -3.5.

Computer Model: Patriots -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Saints.

Lots of action on the Patriots.

Percentage of money on New England: 73% (106,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

Patriots are 30-18 ATS on the road vs. NFC opponents since 2001.

Mike Vrabel is 7-1 ATS in his second consecutive road game.

Opening Line: Patriots -3.5.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Dome.