2025 NFL Picks – Week 6: Broncos at Jets

The Matchup. Edge: Broncos.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

BOYCOTT GAME: I will be boycotting this game, and I urge all of you to do the same. When the NFL had one game in Europe and played it at 1 p.m. Eastern, I was fine with it. Two games began pushing it, and then three games were unacceptable. Now, there are seven European games, and they all begin at 6:30 a.m. on the West Coast, which absolutely screws everyone living in that time zone. Football needs to be in America; not Europe. The NFL needs to go back to just one European game. Tell Roger Goodell to f**k off and buy this Make Football American Again t-shirt:

DENVER OFFENSE: Bo Nix didn’t perform well in the first half of last week’s game, but he caught fire when it mattered. He shredded Philadelphia’s secondary in the fourth quarter, leading the team back from a 17-3 deficit.

Nix should continue to thrive in an easier matchup. The Jets are better against the pass than the run, but they’re still awful against the pass, as we saw last week when Dak Prescott torched them despite missing four offensive linemen. The Broncos protect much better than the Cowboys, so Nix will have all the time he’ll need to locate his receivers for big gains.

As mentioned, the Jets are even worse against the run than the pass. J.K. Dobbins just rushed for 100 yards two weeks ago, and I don’t think it’ll be too difficult for him to duplicate that feat.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Justin Fields is an exciting player who can run circles around helpless defenders. He’s a great highlight-reel quarterback, but unfortunately for Fields, that doesn’t translate into wins in the NFL.

Fields was truly horrendous against the Cowboys. The stats don’t look bad, but most of Fields’ production came in garbage time. The offensive line betrayed him at times, but Fields couldn’t consistently move the ball even when he had time. Given that the Broncos have the No. 1 pass rush in the NFL, Fields will be in for even more pain.

Fields has just one viable threat at his disposal. This threat is a very good one in Garrett Wilson, but the Broncos can delete Wilson by putting Patrick Surtain II on him. Denver can otherwise focus on putting the clamps on Fields and Breece Hall whenever they try to pick up yardage on the ground.

RECAP: My rule for international games is the same one as the one I have for Thursday games: Back the superior team as long as they’re focused. The reason for this is that the inferior team won’t have the adequate preparation time it needs to overcome a difficult opponent.

I don’t need to tell you that the Broncos are the superior team. They’re very close to being 5-0, while the Jets are a complete dumpster fire. They’ve been blown out by superior competition this year, and they’ve thrown away games versus on-par opponents. The Broncos are obviously far superior, so this should be a blowout.

The question remains: Will the Broncos be focused? I think there’s a good chance they will be, given that this is an international stage. However, the Broncos just had such a signature win over the Eagles that included a fourth-quarter comeback, so I don’t think it’s impossible that they’ll show up a bit flat in London, especially when considering that this is an absurd 7:30 a.m. local start time for them.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’ve done a lot of thinking about the Denver spot, and I’ve come to the conclusion that this is not a bad situation for the Broncos. Sure, they’re coming off a big win versus the Eagles, but this is an international stage, which is unfamiliar to them. This is only the second time the Broncos have played in London since they originally did so in 2010, so this is the first time for a lot of these players. I’m going to bet the Broncos.

BETTING PROMO: BetMGM has a no-sweat bet, up to $20. I’m going to put it on Denver -7.5 -105.

SATURDAY NOTES: Outside of a couple of players – Ben Powers for the Broncos; Michael Carter for the Jets – these teams will be entering this game mostly healthy. I still like the Broncos for a three-unit play.

PLAYER PROPS: The Jets have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. Three opposing backs have rushed for 99 yards or more through five weeks against them. The best number for J.K. Dobbins is over 67.5 rushing yards -114 at BetRivers.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Two more of these London games before we can take a break from this international s**t. The sharps haven’t touched this game for the most part, but there’s been a bit of pro money coming in on the Jets. The best line is -7 +100 at Bookmaker. FanDuel, however, has a 30-percent profit boost for a game, up to $25. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Jets.

The Broncos are coming off a signature win versus the Eagles.

The Spread. Edge: Broncos.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Broncos -10.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Broncos -6.5.

Computer Model: Broncos -10.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.

Slight lean on the Broncos.

Percentage of money on New York: 63% (51,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

Opening Line: Broncos -7.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 62 degrees. Light wind.