NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 6, 2025 – Late Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2025): 9-2-1 (+$890)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2025): 9-7 (-$725)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2025): 7-9 (-$925)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2025): 6-10 (-$1,285)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2025): 6-10 (+$410)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2025): 8-6 (-$25)
2025 NFL Picks: 45-44-1 (-$1,660)

2024 NFL Picks: 144-136-12 (-$1,380)
NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Oct. 12, 11:25 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 6 NFL Picks – Early Games

The Matchup. Edge: Raiders.

Video of the Week: When my son was born, all I could do while he slept in my arms was watch Sudoku puzzles. This was the channel I tuned into, and this video solves a Sudoku with only one given number (just fast forward through the birthday announcements):

Oh, bobbins!

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: It’s safe to say that things didn’t go according to plan for the Raiders in last week’s 40-6 blowout loss to the Colts. Moving the ball was incredibly difficult, as Geno Smith didn’t have any time in the pocket. This was not surprising, given that Las Vegas’ already-poor offensive line was missing its best blocker, Kolton Miller.

Miller won’t be back for this game, but the good news is that the Raiders will be going up against a team that has a far worse pass rush than the Colts. The Titans have just 70 pressures through five contests, so Smith will have more time in the pocket than usual. He’ll be able to attack a Tennessee secondary that is sorely lacking in talent.

The Titans have other problems defensively. They haven’t been able to stop the run since losing T’Vondre Sweat to injury. They have the sixth-worst run defense in the NFL, so Ashton Jeanty figures to have the same sort of performance he enjoyed versus the Bears.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Like the Titans, the Raiders don’t generate much pressure on the quarterback. That may seem odd, given that Maxx Crosby is one of the defensive starters, but no one else is able to get to the quarterback. Of the 74 pressures the team has through five games, Crosby has logged 19. Only one other Raider defender has more than nine, and that would be Malcolm Koonce and his 11 pressures.

The Raiders, however, might have some success in getting to Cam Ward. The Titans have a pedestrian offensive line with some injuries, so I could see Crosby dominating this game. Ward has taken a ton of sacks thus far this year, so he could be brought down on several more occasions.

Ward won’t exactly be able to lean on Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears either. Despite what we saw last week in Indianapolis, the Raiders are seventh against the run. Pollard won’t be able to get much, meaning Ward will often be in long-yardage situations against Crosby.

RECAP: I haven’t bet the Raiders yet this year, but I guess there’s a first time for everything. We’ve been able to avoid this Raiders disaster through five weeks, but the value has finally given us a nice opportunity.

The advance line on this game was Raiders -6.5. This spread is now -4.5, moving through the key number of six. That automatically puts the Raiders into consideration as a play. If you’re not convinced, think about it this way: The Cardinals were -7.5 versus Tennessee. They didn’t cover, but they would have if renowned idiot Emari Demercado didn’t drop the ball shy of the goal line. Arizona is not much better than Las Vegas – they’re six spots apart in my NFL Power Rankings – so how is there a three-point difference between the two lines?

And sure, the Titans just won, but I think that goes against them. Horrible teams often have issues sustaining success, so I don’t think we’re going to see the Titans at their best in this game. Of course, Tennessee already sucks, so an even worse version of the team is going to be truly putrid.

Conversely, the Raiders are coming off four consecutive losses. They’re a well-coached veteran team desperate for a win. Part of the reason the Raiders are 1-4 is their difficult schedule. Outside of the Week 4 contest against the Bears, which was a blown potential victory, the Raiders have played nothing but Group B opponents. They’ve gone against the Chargers (when they were at full strength), the Redskins, and the Colts. The Titans are the worst team the Raiders have faced by far, and they’ll be fully focused to snap this horrible losing streak.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’d be nice to have Brock Bowers for our impending bet on the Raiders. Unfortunately, he missed practice on Wednesday, so he’s not off to a good start.

SATURDAY NOTES: I was hoping for Brock Bowers to return, but he’s been ruled out already. The Titans will be getting JC Latham back from injury. Still, the Raiders look like the right side.

PLAYER PROPS: Ashton Jeanty has been a disappointing producer this season, but he’s battled some tough defenses. This is an easy matchup, much like the one he saw in Week 4 against the Bears. The best number is over 75.5 rushing yards -113 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Nothing new here, as the Raiders still look like a solid pick.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Titans, perhaps because of the Brock Bowers news. I don’t think that will impact the result of this game. The best line is Raiders -3.5 -107 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Raiders.

The Titans are a horrible team coming off a win. The Raiders have lost four in a row.

The Spread. Edge: Raiders.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Raiders -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Raiders -6.5.

Computer Model: Raiders -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Tennessee: 55% (106,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Titans.

Raiders are 20-36 ATS as home favorites since November 2005.

Opening Line: Raiders -6.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: TBA.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now. Besides, I wrote a similar-type book is called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:

Oh, and my other book is still available as well:

In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: We have to begin with the 49ers because they’re the side with all the injuries. We need news on Brock Purdy, Ricky Pearsall, and Jauan Jennings. None of them played against the Rams. Sure, the 49ers beat Los Angeles, but did so despite being outgained by 2.2 yards per play. Success with that sort of disparity is not sustainable.

Purdy and Pearsall didn’t practice Monday. With George Kittle not due back until Week 7, there’s a chance the 49ers will be severely shorthanded once again. Mac Jones should be OK, but the 49ers will need to potentially engage in a shootout with the Buccaneers to win this game, and I don’t know if that’ll be possible if Jones is only throwing to Kendrick Bourne and Jake Tonges, despite what the duo did last Thursday.

Also, keep in mind that the 49ers will not be able to run the ball. The Buccaneers have the best run defense in the NFL. It’s extremely rare that any running back gets 50 rushing yards against the Vita Vea-led front. Kenneth Walker just did, but managed to do so via two fluky runs. Bijan Robinson, Saquon Barkley, and Christian McCaffrey (last year) were all unable to reach 50 rushing yards, so McCaffrey will have to do his damage exclusively as a receiver.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The 49ers aren’t just missing offensive talent. They don’t have Nick Bosa, whose absence has made San Francisco’s defense substantially worse. Not counting Bosa’s stats, the 49ers have just 65 pressures through five games, which is pretty dismal.

The Buccaneers have their own offensive line issues with two starters missing, but that likely won’t be a factor in this game. It certainly wasn’t last week in the 38-35 shootout in which the Buccaneers prevailed over Seattle. With plenty of time to throw, Baker Mayfield will continue to torch the opposition. Perhaps Emeka Egbuka will continue his great Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign.

The only good news for the 49ers on this side of the ball is that they are eighth against the run. It doesn’t sound like Bucky Irving will be ready for this contest, so Rachaad White’s mediocre runs won’t exactly threaten San Francisco’s ground defense.

RECAP: It’s difficult to handicap this game right now because we don’t know who’s playing for the 49ers. If they get their receivers back from injury, I’ll probably back them. If not, I’ll likely be on Tampa Bay.

I’ll have updates throughout the week, so check back later. For now, I’ll pencil in the 49ers.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Brock Purdy, Ricky Pearsall, and Jauan Jennings all missed practice on Wednesday. It’s still early in the week, but it’s not a good sign that they weren’t able to do anything on Wednesday after the extra time off following the mini-bye.

SATURDAY NOTES: Not only are Brock Purdy and Ricky Pearsall sidelined; Mac Jones is iffy to play after being limited all week. The 49ers obviously have other injuries as well. They were able to skate by these injuries against the Rams, but if the Buccaneers don’t give them a win on a silver platter like the Rams did, it’s going to be difficult for the 49ers to win. I’m considering a small bet on the Buccaneers, but I’d like to see what the inactives list looks like.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m switching my pick to the Buccaneers. There are just far too many injuries for the 49ers.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Buccaneers are the play here, as well as the sharps. This line is -3.5 in most places, but you can get -3 -124 at Bookmaker. As I’ve mentioned, the math says that the maximum price for which you should pay up for a -3 is -127. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: 49ers.

The Buccaneers battle the Lions on Monday Night Football next week.

The Spread. Edge: 49ers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Pick.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Buccaneers -1.5.

Computer Model: Pick.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 54% (104,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

Road Team is 147-100 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Kyle Shanahan is 11-6 ATS in his second consecutive road game.

Kyle Shanahan is 9-6 ATS in 1 p.m. East Coast games.

Buccaneers are 45-77 ATS at home in the previous 122 instances.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -1.5.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Sunny, 81 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Packers.

I told you about my two books, How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen and a Safety and a Field Goal! Well, I’ve written a third book that was released this past spring! It’s called Jerks of the College Years. If you like Jerks of the Week, you’ll like Jerks of the College Years, as it’s a collection of weirdos I wrote about during my time at Penn State.

You can support the site by buying this book and spreading the word!

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: We’ve had a great time fading the Bengals the past three weeks. While some thought Cincinnati still had a chance with Jake Browning, we’ve gone a combined 12 units against them since Browning took over for the injured Joe Burrow.

Browning has been a disaster, thanks in part to the poor blocking in front of him. I don’t know how the Bengals are possibly going to block the Packers, who bring tons of heat on opposing quarterbacks. We didn’t quite see it in their tie versus the Cowboys, but the Packers have 95 sacks through four games. With Micah Parsons bound to be healthy after going in and out of the game versus Dallas, Browning is going to be in a ton of trouble in what will likely be his final start. Joe Flacco was acquired, but likely won’t be ready this week (check out my NFL Trade Grades page for my grades.)

It’d be one thing if the Bengals could establish the run and keep the Green Bay pass rushers away from Browning, but that seems highly unlikely. With Browning incapable of threatening the Packers consistently downfield, Green Bay will be able to play closer to the line of scrimmage and limit Chase Brown.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Cincinnati’s offensive line and poor quarterback play obviously aren’t the only issues. The Bengals can’t do anything defensively either, aside from generate pressure via Trey Hendrickson. The Packers protect well on the edge, so while Hendrickson will still apply some pressure, the Packers will be able to keep “No Cookie” Jordan Love fairly clean.

Love will have ample time on most occasions to find his numerous receivers. He doesn’t have quite a No. 1 threat just yet, but he can spread the ball around effectively. Sam LaPorta just dissected Cincinnati’s awful defense, so perhaps Tucker Kraft will have a big performance.

Of course, Love may not have to do much because Josh Jacobs can handle most of the dirty work. The Bengals just allowed J.K. Dobbins to rush for 100 yards two weeks ago, so Jacobs can certainly get there.

RECAP: I like the Packers at -14, or even -14.5. And I know I’m going to hear from some people saying, “There’s no way you can back a 14-point favorite.” Yes, you can. Since 2000, favorites of 14 or more are 25-17 against the spread in the month of October (17-13 ATS at -14.5 or more). I’m not saying that you should back favorites of 14 or more in October because they’re 25-17 ATS, but I just want to show you that it’s OK to side with such a favorite if you believe the situation and matchup warrants it.

And I believe it does. The Bengals are a disaster. Their defense sucks. Their blocking sucks. Their quarterback sucks. Their coaching sucks. They’re one of the worst teams in the NFL, and they’re going to battle one of the better teams in the NFL coming off a bye.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I thought Joe Flacco would start the Week 7 game, but the Bengals are thrusting him into action right away. That’s a bit crazy. I don’t think he’ll have enough time to learn the system and develop chemistry with his new teammates. Also, the Packers just saw Flacco three weeks ago. They’ll have a good game plan for him.

SATURDAY NOTES: Devonte Wyatt being out for the Packers is a bummer, but the Packers could get their guards back from injury. Zach Tom is the key name, and he’s questionable after being limited all week. Meanwhile, Ja’Marr Chase popped up on the injury report after being DNP on Friday with an illness. He’s expected to play, but as you can tell, the inactives list will be huge.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: It sounds like Ja’Marr Chase will be able to play, but the Packers still seem like a good pick.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Ja’Marr Chase will play, but the Bengals will be missing one of their offensive linemen. The sharps haven’t touched this game. The best line is -14 -109 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -14.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -13.5.

Computer Model: Packers -16.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Packers.

The Bengals are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 61% (102,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Matt LaFleur is 60-43 ATS in the regular season.

Opening Line: Packers -13.5.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 62 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is the third part of my Walt Goes to Vegas series, where I discuss all the crazy responses to my Money Laundering t-shirt.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Chiefs will be getting a boost next week, as this will be the last game they’ll be playing during Rashee Rice’s suspension. Rice will be a huge addition to a Kansas City offense that has bounced back after a very sluggish start.

You could say the Chiefs are getting a boost this week as well because the Lions could be missing several defensive players, including newly injured D.J. Reed and Terrion Arnold. Reed has been excellent for the Lions this year, but he suffered an injury last week. Detroit’s coverage won’t be as good without bother cornerbacks, which has to be music to Patrick Mahomes’ ears because he already has to worry about a strong Detroit pass rush that has 103 pressures through five games this year.

Mahomes will have to do most of the work on his own because he won’t get much out of the running game. The Lions own a top-five ground defense, and it’s not like the Chiefs do much via their running game anyway.

DETROIT OFFENSE: While the Chiefs need a boost from Rice, the Lions could use one in the form of Taylor Decker returning from injury. Detroit just blew out the Chiefs, but allowed more pressure than usual on the edge because of Decker’s absence.

The Chiefs can also get after the quarterback consistently, so they’ll take advantage of Decker being out of the lineup as well. Detroit obviously has to worry about Chris Jones as well. Jones will be very problematic for an interior line group that lost two talented starters this offseason.

The Lions can make up for this pressure by running the ball and putting Jared Goff in favorable down-and-distance situations. However, the Chiefs are quite stout against the run, so I wouldn’t expect explosive results from Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery.

RECAP: I’m not surprised the Lions are getting plenty of public attention this week. They’ve won four in a row, after all, while the Chiefs lost yet another game to drop to 2-3. Kansas City beat Baltimore a couple of weeks ago, but people have seen how bad the Ravens were versus Houston, so I imagine normal bettors will downgrade their opinion on the Chiefs.

I think this is a mistake. The Chiefs would have beaten the Jaguars had they not shot themselves in the foot on special teams repeatedly. They still have the best quarterback and the best head coach, and I like the duo to bounce back from a defeat. Meanwhile, the Lions, during their winning streak, have beaten the Bears, Ravens, and Bengals. We know the Bears and Bengals both stink, and the Ravens have since been exposed as frauds, so it’s fair to be skeptical about how good the Lions are.

This is a great spot to back the Chiefs. They’re coming off a loss, and their backs are against the wall as they try to avoid 2-4. They also have a big edge in the trenches because the Lions are down three offensive linemen.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I had a debate with Andy on this game. He loves the Lions, while I really like the Chiefs. You can listen to it on our show:

SATURDAY NOTES: What a huge difference between the two teams on the injury report. The Chiefs don’t have a single player with an injury designation. Not one. Conversely, the Lions have cluster injuries everywhere. Their two starting cornerbacks are both out. Their two starting safeties could be out, as Brian Branch was DNP on Friday, while Kerby Joseph has been ruled out. Taylor Decker once again didn’t practice at all. Alim McNeill was thought to be ready to return after practicing fully all week, but he was also ruled out. The Lions are a complete mess, so the Chiefs look even more appealing.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: There’s more money on the Lions than any team this week. People betting the Lions clearly haven’t seen their injury report.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I don’t know why Josh Simmons is out for the Chiefs. This is a concern, but I’m sticking with Kansas City, albeit for two units. This is a classic sharps versus public game where the public loves the Lions and the sharps are on the Chiefs. There’s no -2.5 -110 out there, but we can get -2.5 -113 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Chiefs.

The Chiefs are coming off a loss.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -1.

Computer Model: Lions -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.

The Lions are a massively publicly backed underdog.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 88% (114,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

Patrick Mahomes is 102-28 SU, 68-60 ATS (54-46 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Patrick Mahomes is 14-10 ATS after a loss.

Opening Line: Chiefs -1.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 77 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

If you didn’t catch it, I posted two live bets during the Chiefs-Jaguars game. I tweeted out that I was betting the Trevor Lawrence and Patrick Mahomes rushing overs, and both hit. I’ll be posting more live bets on X because it takes time to upload things to the site, so by the time I do, the line may be stale. Follow me @walterfootball for those live betting updates.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: It was surprising to see the Bills lose a divisional game on national TV. Josh Allen played well, but wasn’t at his best. It was understandable why he wouldn’t have his best game, given the vast improvement of New England’s defense, led by Mike Vrabel. The Falcons are known as a team that doesn’t play defense well, but they’ve also bolstered their stop unit this offseason with some talented pass rushers.

The Falcons will be able to generate some heat on Allen, though I don’t think it’ll be enough to stop him. Allen is protected well on the edge now that Spencer Brown is back in the lineup. Allen, however, will face a challenge in the Falcons secondary, which is also greatly improved.

Furthermore, the Falcons happen to be better against the run than the pass. James Cook is coming off a dud outing, and I suspect that he’ll once again disappoint his fantasy owners.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: If you recall from last week, I was eagerly anticipating Matt Milano’s status for the Patriots game. Milano is the heart and soul of Buffalo’s defense, which is often far worse without him, especially against the run. When it was announced that Milano would be playing, I was more confident in Buffalo covering the spread.

What I failed to realize was that Milano wouldn’t be 100 percent in his return. Milano struggled in his first game back from injury, which was exactly what happened when he returned from his injury last year. It took him a couple of games to round into form. His ability to do so will be crucial, given that the Falcons love to run the ball with Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier.

The Bills have issues in their secondary as well, so they can’t exactly devote extra resources to stopping the run. If they have to do so, we may see Drake London pick up where Stefon Diggs left off Sunday night.

RECAP: I’d like to back the Bills for a big play coming off a loss, but they really aren’t playing up to their ability right now. I was willing to forgive them for their close calls against the Dolphins and Saints due to a lack of effort, but they were fairly beaten by the Patriots.

Buffalo’s defense isn’t at full strength right now. The team will play much better when Milano is 100 percent, and when Ed Oliver is able to suit up again. Right now, however, we’ve seen Spencer Rattler perform well against the Bills, which is obviously very problematic.

Then again, I’m not too excited to back an NFC South team outside of the division, especially against a superior opponent. I’m going to side with the Bills, but this won’t be a big wager.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: After doing a lot of thinking on this game, I’m going to switch my pick to the Falcons. The Bills just aren’t playing well right now, especially when it comes to stopping the run. Very few teams run the ball better than the Falcons.

SATURDAY NOTES: Matt Milano hasn’t practiced yet this week, which is obviously a bad sign for Buffalo’s chances of covering the spread.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: There appears to be a bit of sharp money building on Atlanta. I wonder if that’s because of the Matt Milano news.

SAME-GAME PARLAYS: We’re doing something different tonight in honor of the double-header. Well, that, and the fact that DraftKings has a 35-percent profit boost for four legs across the two games tonight. We’re going with Tyler Allgeier over 30.5 rushing yards, James Cook under 71.5 rushing yards, Jacory Croskey-Merritt over 70.5 rushing yards, and D’Andre Swift under 46.5 rushing yards. This $25 parlay pays $307.50 when boosted. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: If you didn’t see the news, Dalton Kincaid is a surprise inactive. That’s not a huge deal, but a deal nonetheless. The sharps are on the Falcons. If you want to tail them, the best line is +3.5 -102 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Bills.

The Bills are coming off a loss.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -4.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bills -5.5.

Computer Model: Bills -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.

Action on the Bills.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 84% (51,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

Bills are 26-18 ATS after playing the New England Patriots since 1999.

Josh Allen is 13-8 ATS off a loss since his second season.

Opening Line: Bills -5.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Redskins.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Washington, home of the Washington Foreskins who get to battle the Chicago Tigers tonight. Washington’s team is actually not the Foreskins, but that’s what people call the Redskins. Foreskins, Foreskins, ha! You suck, Foreskins! Much worse than my Philadelphia Eagles! You’d have to be conned to like this stupid Foreskin team!

Emmitt: Thanks, Conrad. I does not understand the Foreskin joke. Is it because the guy have four skin? Four skin a lot of skin, much bigger than one skin or two skin or eight skin. This alphabet number eight remind me of a great joke I once hear. Guys, why was six afraid of seven? Because eight nine 10. I hear somebody telleded this joke and everyone laugh, and now I make my attempt but none of you laughing, so I not going to quit my Dave job to become a comedy.

Reilly: Emmitt, to be honest, I don’t understand the Foreskins joke either, so I’m glad you said something about it. It must be something sophisticated that very smart people can understand. Mother says I’m a very smart boy, but I think she’s overestimating my abilities only because I’m doing so well in her homeschool classes.

Tollefson: Reilly, Foreskins is a juvenile joke. I don’t have time for jokes, anyway. Kidnapping women to cook and clean for me is no laughing matter. If you don’t believe me, I did some stand-up for the women I have locked in my cellar. I had my best material. I worked on it for months. And yet, not even a chuckle. I’m beginning to think that women locked in captivity don’t understand comedy!

Reilly: Tolly, Mother says that comedy is the devil, so that could be the reason why your female prisoners are’t laughing at your great jokes. Speaking of female prisoners, let’s go down to the field to hear from Clarissa Thomas, who has the latest report from tonight’s game, which no one cares about.

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Matt. That’s absolutely right, tonight’s matchup comes down to the play of Joe Theismann, who is a young quarterback who has shown a lot of potential and has really given the team a jolt of energy. But I must say guys, if I were held captive, I would love a stand-up act.

Reilly: Guys, guys, guys, this is not a time for laugher. Don’t you remember what happened last week? Matt Millen’s kielbasa got shot in the neck, and now Matt Millen can’t insert kielbasas up his 100-percent USDA Men’s backside. Matt used to work with us, but now he has a greater mission in life. He’s going to overtake his own kielbasas’ duties, so he’s going to insert himself into the backsides of his 100-percent USDA Men. Mina Kimes, you were hired for your great analysis, so what do you think about this matter?

Mina Kimes: I think this is yet another instance of me being oppressed because I’m an Asian female analyst. It doesn’t matter how many great takes I can give, like the one time I said that Geno Smith is a top-one quarterback. It doesn’t matter because people will never take me seriously because I am both female and Asian. And if I were a cis white male, I would have been asked to replace Matt Millen’s kielbasa, but as a female Asian NFL analyst, no one even asked me if I wanted to take over for Matt Millen’s kielbasa. Why didn’t anyone ask me if I wanted to take over for Matt Millen’s kielbasa!? It’s because I’m a female Asian NFL analyst, and people don’t appreciate diversity!

Reilly: You really want to be a male-on-male sexual toy? Is this how you feel as well, Sarah Spain?

Sarah Spain: NO, SOMEONE ACTUALLY ASKED ME IF I WANTED TO BECOME MATT MILLEN’S KIELBASAS BECAUSE THEY THOUGHT I WAS A DILDO. WHY DID PEOPLE THINK I WAS A DILDO!? BECAUSE I’M A FEMALE SPORTS ANALYST!

Reilly: Guys, I mean, girls, we have a letter from the assassin Colterbean’s boyfriend Winterbloom. Let’s see what he has to say.

Winterbloom: My name is Winterbloom, and I am the boyfriend of Colterbean, the assassin who struck Matt Millen’s kielbasa in the neck. I want everyone to know that I had no idea that it would happen even though it seems unreasonable for me not to know at all about it, and I need everyone to know that I am a biological Cowboys fan who now identifies as Eagles fan, and-

Reilly: WHAT!?!? YOU CAN’T CHANGE YOUR FANHOOD TO EAGLES FAN!? ARE YOU KIDDING ME!? YOU’RE EITHER BORN AN EAGLES FAN OR NOT! YOU’RE A TOTAL FRAUD! YOU CAN’T CHANGE YOUR FANHOOD! NO ONE HAS EVER BEEN ABLE TO CHANGE THEIR FANHOOD! NEW DADDY, TELL WINTERBOMB THAT HE CAN’T CHANGE HIS FANHOOD! ARREST WINTERBOMB FOR ME, NEW DADDY!

Jay Cutler: Hey man, don’t tie me to your transfanphobia. I don’t wanna get shot.

Mina Kimes: Kevin Reilly is a transfansphobe!? No wonder I’m so oppressed! I’m working with an oppressor!

Sarah Spain: OMG HE’S A TRANSFANSPHOBE REEEEEEEE!!!

Tollefson: Reilly, look what you did. You ignited the crazies. Leave me out of this, too, because I don’t want to get shot either. I have way too many women to kidnap to get shot.

Reilly: Oh no, what if I get shot!? What if some transfan is going to steal my Nick Foles bobblehead collection!?

Charles Davis: Kevin, let’s talk about shootings involving transfans, Kevin. Actually, this is a bad subject, Kevin, so let’s just stick to one event, Kevin, which is Kevin’s impending assassination, Kevin.

Reilly: No! I didn’t say it! Charles Davis said it! Charles Davis hates transfans! Shoot him, not me! We’ll be back right after this!

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: So much for Jayden Daniels being rusty. I thought Daniels wouldn’t perform up to his abilities in his first game back from his 2-week knee-related absence, but after a slow first quarter, he caught fire and was excellent against the highly ranked Chargers defense.

Daniels should be even better this week. The Bears have many issues with their defense. They have injuries in their back seven, while their front line has logged a laughable 44 pressures through four games. Daniels will have all the time in the world he’ll need to connect with Deebo Samuel and perhaps Terry McLaurin.

Another issue the Bears have is that they can’t stop the run at all. Ashton Jeanty had his best game by far against the Bears, so that gives Jacory Croskey-Merritt a bullish outlook. Croskey-Merritt had been a disappointment entering Week 5, but he exploded versus the Chargers. That momentum figures to continue against the defensively inept Bears.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: The Bears had issues with their offense to start the season, but they overcame those after their blowout loss to the Lions. They had an offensive explosion against the Cowboys and then moved the chains effectively versus the Raiders. Things could be better following the bye.

However, the strength of opposition must be factored into Chicago’s projections. The Bears thrived against the Cowboys and Raiders, two of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Redskins are solid defensively, as we saw this past Sunday when they put the clamps on the Chargers after the opening quarter.

The Redskins stop the run well, so they won’t have much of an issue containing D’Andre Swift. We know how much Ben Johnson values running the ball, so if he can’t utilize his rushing attack, that’ll make things difficult for Caleb Williams, who is prone to committing mistakes and holding the ball too long in the pocket. The Redskins get a decent amount of pressure on the quarterback, as Justin Herbert and his offensive line just learned, so Williams could be taken down on several occasions.

RECAP: We had a tight defensive battle between these teams last year, which ended in Jayden Daniels’ iconic Hail Mary. I don’t think we’re going to get the same sort of tight contest again. Daniels was not 100 percent in that game, while the Bears have made offensive improvements without addressing their defense very much.

With Daniels now at full strength, he’ll be able to score enough on the Bears to win and cover. Meanwhile, I don’t have enough faith in Chicago just yet to show enough improvement against non-inept defenses. The Redskins obviously have a much better stop unit than the Raiders and Cowboys.

I’m going to side with the Redskins. I’m not sure if I’ll have any money on them because they’re not in an amazing spot coming off a win on a cross-country road trip, but maybe I’ll talk myself into a unit or two.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I may decide to bet the Redskins. The Bears are a very fluky 2-2 right now, so I don’t think this spread represents the disparity between the two teams.

SATURDAY NOTES: It doesn’t look like the Redskins will be getting Terry McLaurin back from injury, but it seems as though Sam Cosmi has a good chance to return because he’s practicing fully.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: It looks like some sharp money may be coming in on the Bears. Perhaps that’s because Sam Cosmi won’t be available.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There are no injury surprises in this game. The sharps are once again on the home team, so it’s good to be on the same side as the pros in both games. The best line is -5.5 -105 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Redskins -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Redskins -4.5.

Computer Model: Redskins -6.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 54% (36,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bears.

Redskins are 15-28 ATS as home favorites of more than 4 since 2000.

Redskins are 1-18 ATS in Monday Night Football home games since 1998.

Opening Line: Redskins -4.5.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 59 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.