2025 NFL Picks – Week 6: Browns at Steelers

The Matchup. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were: 34-42 in 2020, 48-37 in 2021, 32-35-1 in 2022, 31-27 ATS in 2023, and 49-45 in 2024. The public was 3-14 heading into Week 4.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Lions -9.5

Giants +2.5

Ravens -3.5

Cardinals -7.5

The public went 1-4 in Week 1, 1-3 in Week 2, 0-3 in Week 3, 1-4 in Week 4, and 1-3 in Week 5. No one is going to have money for Christmas presents at this rate.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Lions +2.5

Jets +7

Cowboys -3.5

Jets +7 is shocking. The other two are not.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: I can’t say Dillon Gabriel had a poor debut. Granted, I wasn’t expecting much, especially against Minnesota’s No. 1-ranked defense, but Gabriel outperformed what I thought he would do in his initial start. Don’t get me wrong; he wasn’t great, or even good, but at least he didn’t commit countless turnovers like we saw from Joe Flacco in the first four weeks of the season.

Gabriel will face an easier test this week. The Steelers are known to have a great defense, but they’ve struggled on that side of the ball this year. They rank 24th in defensive EPA, though their pass rush is still strong. They have 83 pressures through four games, so Cleveland will need to protect Gabriel well on the edge. The Browns traded for Cam Robinson, so he could be used to upgrade the blind-side protection, which has been dismal.

The primary method of successful offense the Browns will have is running the ball with Quinshon Judkins. The rookie running back has been tremendous, and he has a terrific matchup against a Steelers defense that has been ranked in the middle of the pack this year.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Steelers won’t have as much success running the ball. First of all, neither of their runners – Jaylen Warren or Kenneth Gainwell – is nearly as talented as Judkins. Second, Cleveland is much stronger against the run than Pittsburgh. The Browns rank second versus the rush, so they’ll be able to put the clamps on Pittsburgh’s ground attack.

And third, the Steelers don’t have a very good offensive line. Pittsburgh has struggled to pass protect this year, which is quite the challenge against the Myles Garrett-led Cleveland defensive line.

Aaron Rodgers will have to release the ball quickly, as usual. The Steelers will have some success utilizing this strategy because DK Metcalf can make big plays, but sustaining consistent drives will prove to be difficult.

RECAP: I imagine the Steelers will garner lots of interest because the spot is so obvious. They’re coming off a bye, while Cleveland is playing its third-consecutive road game after coming back from England. However, this is evident to everyone, so I imagine it’s baked into the line.

Besides, traveling back from London is not a big deal, as teams have had a .500 record following these international games without taking a bye. It’s not like they’re sailing on the Titanic, or anything, so the Browns should be able to play up to their normal ability. In fact, I’d argue that the Steelers also have an unfavorable spot because they have to play a divisional game in four days.

With that in mind, I’m inclined to side with the Browns. They have the superior defense and running game, and while Pittsburgh has the better quarterback, it’s not like Rodgers is what he once was.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No change here. I don’t expect to bet on either side unless there are some major injuries.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Steelers are healthier off the bye, as they’ll have Alex Highsmith, Joey Porter Jr., and Jaylen Warren back from injury. It’s no surprise to see the line move to -6. Despite getting more value at +6, I still don’t want to bet the Browns.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There are no surprise injuries, and there is no sharp action on either side. The best line for the Browns is +6 -106 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Browns.

The Steelers play in four days.

The Spread. Edge: Browns.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Steelers -5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Steelers -6.

Computer Model: Steelers -3.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Slight lean on the Steelers.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 60% (109,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Steelers have won 40 of the last 50 meetings excluding a 2018 tie.

Aaron Rodgers is 136-100 ATS since 2009.

Opening Line: Steelers -5.5.

Opening Total: 37.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 61 degrees. Light wind.