2025 NFL Picks – Week 6: 49ers at Buccaneers

The Matchup. Edge: TBA.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now. Besides, I wrote a similar-type book is called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:

Oh, and my other book is still available as well:

In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: We have to begin with the 49ers because they’re the side with all the injuries. We need news on Brock Purdy, Ricky Pearsall, and Jauan Jennings. None of them played against the Rams. Sure, the 49ers beat Los Angeles, but did so despite being outgained by 2.2 yards per play. Success with that sort of disparity is not sustainable.

Purdy and Pearsall didn’t practice Monday. With George Kittle not due back until Week 7, there’s a chance the 49ers will be severely shorthanded once again. Mac Jones should be OK, but the 49ers will need to potentially engage in a shootout with the Buccaneers to win this game, and I don’t know if that’ll be possible if Jones is only throwing to Kendrick Bourne and Jake Tonges, despite what the duo did last Thursday.

Also, keep in mind that the 49ers will not be able to run the ball. The Buccaneers have the best run defense in the NFL. It’s extremely rare that any running back gets 50 rushing yards against the Vita Vea-led front. Kenneth Walker just did, but managed to do so via two fluky runs. Bijan Robinson, Saquon Barkley, and Christian McCaffrey (last year) were all unable to reach 50 rushing yards, so McCaffrey will have to do his damage exclusively as a receiver.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The 49ers aren’t just missing offensive talent. They don’t have Nick Bosa, whose absence has made San Francisco’s defense substantially worse. Not counting Bosa’s stats, the 49ers have just 65 pressures through five games, which is pretty dismal.

The Buccaneers have their own offensive line issues with two starters missing, but that likely won’t be a factor in this game. It certainly wasn’t last week in the 38-35 shootout in which the Buccaneers prevailed over Seattle. With plenty of time to throw, Baker Mayfield will continue to torch the opposition. Perhaps Emeka Egbuka will continue his great Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign.

The only good news for the 49ers on this side of the ball is that they are eighth against the run. It doesn’t sound like Bucky Irving will be ready for this contest, so Rachaad White’s mediocre runs won’t exactly threaten San Francisco’s ground defense.

RECAP: It’s difficult to handicap this game right now because we don’t know who’s playing for the 49ers. If they get their receivers back from injury, I’ll probably back them. If not, I’ll likely be on Tampa Bay.

I’ll have updates throughout the week, so check back later. For now, I’ll pencil in the 49ers.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Brock Purdy, Ricky Pearsall, and Jauan Jennings all missed practice on Wednesday. It’s still early in the week, but it’s not a good sign that they weren’t able to do anything on Wednesday after the extra time off following the mini-bye.

SATURDAY NOTES: Not only are Brock Purdy and Ricky Pearsall sidelined; Mac Jones is iffy to play after being limited all week. The 49ers obviously have other injuries as well. They were able to skate by these injuries against the Rams, but if the Buccaneers don’t give them a win on a silver platter like the Rams did, it’s going to be difficult for the 49ers to win. I’m considering a small bet on the Buccaneers, but I’d like to see what the inactives list looks like.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m switching my pick to the Buccaneers. There are just far too many injuries for the 49ers.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Buccaneers are the play here, as well as the sharps. This line is -3.5 in most places, but you can get -3 -124 at Bookmaker. As I’ve mentioned, the math says that the maximum price for which you should pay up for a -3 is -127. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: 49ers.

The Buccaneers battle the Lions on Monday Night Football next week.

The Spread. Edge: 49ers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Pick.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Buccaneers -1.5.

Computer Model: Pick.

The Vegas. Edge: TBA.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 54% (104,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: TBA.

Road Team is 147-100 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Kyle Shanahan is 11-6 ATS in his second consecutive road game.

Kyle Shanahan is 9-6 ATS in 1 p.m. East Coast games.

Buccaneers are 45-77 ATS at home in the previous 122 instances.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -1.5.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Sunny, 81 degrees. Light wind.