2025 NFL Picks – Week 6: Patriots at Saints

The Matchup. Edge: Patriots.

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NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Drake Maye had his coming-out party against the Bills on Sunday night. He posted great fantasy performances earlier in the year, but battled some soft opponents in the process. However, he went toe to toe with Josh Allen on national TV. He was excellent, looking like every bit the comparison Stefon Diggs made to Josh Allen prior to the victory.

It makes such a difference that Maye is so well protected this year. Maye had no blocking during his rookie year, but the offensive line is so much better this season. The Saints probably could have gotten to Maye last year, and I say “probably” because their pass rush sucks. They have only 60 pressures through five games, so I’m not sold they could have bothered Maye if this were 2024. They won’t be able to touch Maye now.

Maye will be able to dissect the New Orleans secondary with ease. The Saints have a struggling defensive backfield, so it’s not good for them that Diggs has been heating up the past couple of weeks. The Saints are better against the run, but the Patriots should be able to move the ball on the ground fairly well.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Patriots have made great strides with their defense in addition to their offensive line. They struggled to stop anyone last year, but Mike Vrabel has turned things around very quickly in New England, which can’t be a surprise.

You may have noticed that James Cook didn’t do anything Sunday night. This is because the Patriots are fourth against the run. This is huge against the Saints, who need to move the ball primarily on the ground because Spencer Rattler is a disaster. With Taysom Hill back, it’s more important than ever to be stout versus ground attacks when going against New Orleans.

Rattler is awful when he can’t depend on the run. He’s battled two poor run defenses the past two weeks when going against the Bills and Giants, but this matchup is quite different. Rattler should play like he did versus Seattle in Week 3.

RECAP: I wish the Patriots lost Sunday night so we could bet them here for a few units. Not only would they be hungry off a loss; there’s a chance we’d get -3 after the Saints won their first game.

Unfortunately, both the spot and the line are unfavorable. The Patriots are coming off a statement win at Buffalo, so it seems highly unlikely that they’ll have the same level of intensity for the Saints. They also have to win by more than a field goal when three is the most likely result of any NFL game.

I’m not saying the Patriots can’t cover – I’m actually going to side with them – but this just isn’t the right spot to bet them. I really want to bet the Patriots because the Saints are an abomination, but I’m worried that New England will have a hangover in this contest, kind of like the Falcons did versus the Panthers in Week 3.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: On our live stream, Andy talked about why he loves the Saints this week:

SATURDAY NOTES: Christian Gonzalez popped up on the injury report and is listed as questionable, though he was able to be full in practice twice to end the week. The Saints, meanwhile, have listed Alvin Kamara as questionable after being limited all week. I wonder if they’re going to hold him out because they plan on trading him. At any rate, I’m going to be betting three units on the Patriots, as it dawned one me that we should be fading a horrible team like the Saints off a win. I worry a bit about the Patriots’ spot after a win in Buffalo, but I trust Mike Vrabel to get his team dialed in for this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There was some concern that Milton Williams would be inactive, but he will play. So will Christian Gonzalez. The sharps have been on the Saints this morning. The best line is -3 -114 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Saints.

The Patriots are coming off a huge win in Buffalo, but the Saints also just won.

The Spread. Edge: Patriots.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Patriots -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Patriots -3.5.

Computer Model: Patriots -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Patriots.

Lots of action on the Patriots.

Percentage of money on New England: 73% (106,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

Patriots are 30-18 ATS on the road vs. NFC opponents since 2001.

Mike Vrabel is 7-1 ATS in his second consecutive road game.

Opening Line: Patriots -3.5.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Dome.