2025 NFL Picks – Week 6: Bengals at Packers

The Matchup. Edge: Packers.

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CINCINNATI OFFENSE: We’ve had a great time fading the Bengals the past three weeks. While some thought Cincinnati still had a chance with Jake Browning, we’ve gone a combined 12 units against them since Browning took over for the injured Joe Burrow.

Browning has been a disaster, thanks in part to the poor blocking in front of him. I don’t know how the Bengals are possibly going to block the Packers, who bring tons of heat on opposing quarterbacks. We didn’t quite see it in their tie versus the Cowboys, but the Packers have 95 sacks through four games. With Micah Parsons bound to be healthy after going in and out of the game versus Dallas, Browning is going to be in a ton of trouble in what will likely be his final start. Joe Flacco was acquired, but likely won’t be ready this week (check out my NFL Trade Grades page for my grades.)

It’d be one thing if the Bengals could establish the run and keep the Green Bay pass rushers away from Browning, but that seems highly unlikely. With Browning incapable of threatening the Packers consistently downfield, Green Bay will be able to play closer to the line of scrimmage and limit Chase Brown.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Cincinnati’s offensive line and poor quarterback play obviously aren’t the only issues. The Bengals can’t do anything defensively either, aside from generate pressure via Trey Hendrickson. The Packers protect well on the edge, so while Hendrickson will still apply some pressure, the Packers will be able to keep “No Cookie” Jordan Love fairly clean.

Love will have ample time on most occasions to find his numerous receivers. He doesn’t have quite a No. 1 threat just yet, but he can spread the ball around effectively. Sam LaPorta just dissected Cincinnati’s awful defense, so perhaps Tucker Kraft will have a big performance.

Of course, Love may not have to do much because Josh Jacobs can handle most of the dirty work. The Bengals just allowed J.K. Dobbins to rush for 100 yards two weeks ago, so Jacobs can certainly get there.

RECAP: I like the Packers at -14, or even -14.5. And I know I’m going to hear from some people saying, “There’s no way you can back a 14-point favorite.” Yes, you can. Since 2000, favorites of 14 or more are 25-17 against the spread in the month of October (17-13 ATS at -14.5 or more). I’m not saying that you should back favorites of 14 or more in October because they’re 25-17 ATS, but I just want to show you that it’s OK to side with such a favorite if you believe the situation and matchup warrants it.

And I believe it does. The Bengals are a disaster. Their defense sucks. Their blocking sucks. Their quarterback sucks. Their coaching sucks. They’re one of the worst teams in the NFL, and they’re going to battle one of the better teams in the NFL coming off a bye.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I thought Joe Flacco would start the Week 7 game, but the Bengals are thrusting him into action right away. That’s a bit crazy. I don’t think he’ll have enough time to learn the system and develop chemistry with his new teammates. Also, the Packers just saw Flacco three weeks ago. They’ll have a good game plan for him.

SATURDAY NOTES: Devonte Wyatt being out for the Packers is a bummer, but the Packers could get their guards back from injury. Zach Tom is the key name, and he’s questionable after being limited all week. Meanwhile, Ja’Marr Chase popped up on the injury report after being DNP on Friday with an illness. He’s expected to play, but as you can tell, the inactives list will be huge.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: It sounds like Ja’Marr Chase will be able to play, but the Packers still seem like a good pick.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Ja’Marr Chase will play, but the Bengals will be missing one of their offensive linemen. The sharps haven’t touched this game. The best line is -14 -109 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -14.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -13.5.

Computer Model: Packers -16.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Packers.

The Bengals are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 61% (102,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Matt LaFleur is 60-43 ATS in the regular season.

Opening Line: Packers -13.5.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 62 degrees. Light wind.