2025 NFL Picks – Week 6: Chargers at Dolphins

The Matchup. Edge: Chargers.

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SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The Chargers jumped out to a 10-0 lead last week, but failed to score after that. Their offensive line betrayed the rest of the team, and it didn’t help that there were several untimely penalties, including two that wiped out a pair of big gains on the same drive in the second half.

Fortunately for the Chargers, they get to take on the Dolphins, who can’t stop anyone. We just saw Dallas’ horrible defense clamp down on the Jets, and yet the Dolphins couldn’t do anything to stop the Jets when they weren’t fumbling. Miami has a weak pass rush – 74 pressures through five games – and their Storm Duck-less secondary is even worse. Even without Joe Alt’s services, Justin Herbert will have an easy time dissecting the Dolphins.

The Dolphins are just as awful against the run. We saw proof of that last week when Rico Dowdle gained 200 rushing yards against Miami. The Chargers lost Omarion Hampton to injury, but if Dowdle could get to 200 rushing yards, I’m sure the backup Charger running backs can combine for 120 rushing yards or so.

MIAMI OFFENSE: The Dolphins weren’t as bad on this side of the ball against the Panthers, but their offense still really struggled. Following 17 early points they were able to generate off Bryce Young turnovers, Miami scored only seven points the rest of the way against Carolina’s garbage defense.

The Chargers obviously play much better defense than the Panthers. They can generate a fair amount of pressure on the quarterback, which doesn’t bode well for Tua Tagovailoa, who is not protected well at all. Tagovailoa didn’t have a good performance in his first full game without Tyreek Hill, and unfortunately for Tagovailoa, Hill isn’t coming back anytime soon.

The weakness of the Chargers defense is their vulnerability against the run. They’re not terrible versus the rush, but they’re in the bottom half of the league in that regard. The good news for the Chargers is that the Dolphins can’t run the ball consistently because of how horrible their offensive line is, so something has to give in this matchup.

RECAP: I love the Chargers this week. They’re coming off two consecutive losses, and they’re obviously the better team following at least one defeat. They’ll be dialed in to rebound to 4-2 because they’ll be at risk of falling to 3-3. They still have their offensive line issues, but so did the Cowboys, and Dallas demolished a similarly talented team last week. I trust Jim Harbaugh to figure out something with his problematic blocking.

Conversely, the Dolphins are one of the worst teams in the NFL. That was already the case prior to the Hill injury, and now they’re worse. If you don’t agree, consider that their only win is against the hapless 0-5 Jets, who may have won had they not fumbled a billion times. Miami couldn’t even beat the awful Panthers last week.

Despite the obvious talent disparity between the teams, we’re getting great line value. The Chargers were -5.5 on the advance spread, but have fallen to -4 because of their recent losses. I have this priced at -7, so if I’m correct, we’re getting three points of value with two key numbers.

Oh, and if you’re worried about the Chargers playing in an early, cross-country start time, don’t be. Harbaugh is 10-2 against the spread in 1 p.m. East Coast games.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Chargers are making a switch at center. They’re going from Bradley Bozeman to Andre James, which seems like an upgrade. I’m glad Jim Harbaugh is trying to come up with some ideas to fix the poor blocking situation.

SATURDAY NOTES: As if the Chargers’ offensive line couldn’t get worse, they’ll be missing two more blockers this week. Jamaree Salyer and Trey Pipkins are both out, though it must be noted that Pipkins is terrible. Still, he might be better than his replacement, so his absence is not good news. There is good news, however, and that would be that Miami can’t pressure the quarterback, so this could be like the Cowboys winning on the road last week against a very weak opponent. Also, the Chargers look like they’ll have Denzel Perryman back from injury, so their run defense will be much better.

PLAYER PROPS: De’Von Achane has hit the over on rushing yards twice this year, doing so against crappy run defenses. The Chargers, currently ranked in the middle of the pack against the run. The best number is under 59.5 rushing yards -118 at BetMGM, which you can boost to +101.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have been betting the Dolphins all Sunday morning, perhaps because of the news that Quentin Johnston is out. I still love the Chargers, especially at this discounted price. The best line is -3.5 +100 at BetMGM. We have a $20 bonus bet from BetMGM to use here.

I’m also betting the alt line, taking Chargers -16.5 +450 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Chargers.

The Chargers are coming off two losses.

The Spread. Edge: Chargers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chargers -7.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chargers -5.5.

Computer Model: Chargers -4.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on San Angeles: 56% (106,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

Jim Harbaugh is 10-2 ATS in 1 p.m. East Coast games.

Jim Harbaugh is 12-5 ATS after a loss, excluding 2014.

Opening Line: Chargers -5.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Sunny, 79 degrees. Light wind.