2025 NFL Picks – Week 5: Patriots at Bills

The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is the third part of my Walt Goes to Vegas series, where I discuss all the crazy responses to my Money Laundering t-shirt.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Bills have struggled to put their previous two opponents away, with the games against the Dolphins and Saints being close. The offense hasn’t been an issue, though the unit was a bit slowed down by the absence of right tackle Spencer Brown. The Patriots don’t get after the quarterback very well – 65 pressures through four games – so Josh Allen will have plenty of time in the pocket on Sunday night, even if Brown is sidelined again.

The Patriots aren’t particularly great against the run. They rank in the middle of the pack, so Allen should be able to lean on James Cook, who figures to continue his monster 2025 campaign.

One area in which the Patriots have improved lately is in pass coverage, thanks to Christian Gonzalez returning from injury. Gonzalez wasn’t even that great against the Panthers, but his presence certainly helped. The problem in this regard is that Allen has a myriad of weapons at his disposal, so he won’t have to worry about Gonzalez erasing one particular receiver.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The source of the Bills’ recent struggles to cover the spread stems from the defense. Matt Milano and Ed Oliver being sidelined has been huge. Oliver is the team’s top interior force, while Milano is the heart and soul of the defense.

The Bills are far worse against the run when Milano is sidelined, so that doesn’t bode well against the Patriots, who love to run the football. Of course, New England would be much better at that if they utilized their best running back, TreVeyon Henderson, but the coaching staff is clueless about the situation. Making up for that is Drake Maye’s ability to scramble, which will give Buffalo some fits.

Maye has been great so far, but this is his biggest test to date. He might have a chance to succeed aerially versus Buffalo, given that Spencer Rattler and Tua Tagovailoa have performed well the past two weeks.

RECAP: The Bills have been a money pit the past two weeks, siphoning money from the public. Casuals are eagerly willing to bet them because they’re perceived to be the best team in football. However, Buffalo has had issues covering the spread because of the absences of Oliver and Milano.

It remains to be seen if Oliver and Milano will return. If they do, the Bills might give us a nice buy-low opportunity because they’d be favored by more if they had covered the spread against Miami and New Orleans, which they likely would have done if those two players were healthy. If they’re out again, that makes things more difficult. While the Bills haven’t covered the past two weeks, they’ve been able to win by double digits, which will be good enough to beat the number versus New England.

We’ll see what happens with the Oliver and Milano injuries, but I’m currently leaning toward siding with the Bills.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It sounds like Matt Milano has a chance to return for this game. I will continue to side with the Bills if that’s the case.

SATURDAY NOTES: We still have no news on the three Buffalo questionable players. Matt Milano, Ed Oliver, and Spencer Brown continued to be limited in practice. They were limited every single day, and all three are listed as questionable.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Buffalo’s injuries will dictate where we go with this game. Check back around 7:45 p.m. Eastern for updates.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I can’t get to a bet tonight after that utter bulls**t we saw in the Cardinals game. Week after week, it’s horrible bad beat after horrible bad beat, with no good luck in sight. When will it end? Anyway, Ed Oliver is out, but Matt Milano will play. The sharps are on the Patriots, but today is a rough day for the sharps. The best line is Bills -7.5 -105 at ESPNBet and FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Patriots.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -8.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bills -10.

Computer Model: Bills -6.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

Late money on the Bills.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 68% (184,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

History: Bills have won 8 of the last 9 meetings, excluding when they sat their starters.

Opening Line: Bills -10.5.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 65 degrees. Light wind.