2025 NFL Picks – Week 5: Lions at Bengals

The Matchup. Edge: Lions.

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DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions have rebounded nicely since their opening-week loss to the Packers. Their offense looked dysfunctional in that blowout loss, but they’ve been much better since the Week 1 debacle.

There’s no reason to think that Detroit will slow down at all in this game. The Lions, after all, will be battling one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Cincinnati can’t do anything well aside from rush the passer with Trey Hendrickson. This won’t be much of an issue for Jared Goff because he’ll be protected very well on the edge once again.

Besides, Goff may not need to do much. The Bengals have shown a complete inability to stop the run. J.K. Dobbins just rushed for 100 yards against them, so imagine what Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery will be able to accomplish.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Everyone knew the Bengals wouldn’t be able to stop anyone this year, but everyone counted on Joe Burrow to engage most teams in a shootout. This wasn’t possible, however, and not just because of Burrow’s injury. The Cincinnati offensive line is dreadful and cannot protect whatsoever.

The Lions just smothered Lamar Jackson two weeks ago. They’ll be able to do the same to Jake Browning, as the Cincinnati front will have no answer for Aidan Hutchinson. Browning will likely be forced into some turnovers, just like Joe Flacco was against Detroit last week.

The Bengals won’t be able to turn to the run either. The Lions have the No. 2 ground defense in the NFL, so they’ll be able to put the clamps on Chase Brown.

RECAP: We’ve made a lot of money fading the Bengals all year. We’ve had huge plays against them every single week, and we’re 3-1 using that strategy. We’d be 4-0 if it wasn’t for that ridiculous ending at the end of the Jacksonville game.

I’m going to continue to fade the Bengals until further notice. They’re simply way too outmatched on both sides of the ball. Their defense can’t stop anything, while their offensive line can’t block against teams that can generate a consistent pass rush.

I wish the Lions had gotten upset last week, which would make them an outstanding play. Still, the Lions look great enough for us to bet at least three units.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I like that this line moved off -10.5, which is a very bullish indicator for the Lions covering this spread.

PLAYER PROPS: Chase Brown has seven receptions in his previous two games, and yet his receptions prop in this game is just 2.5. Jake Browning is under siege so often that he has to dump off passes to Brown. The best number is over 2.5 receptions -130 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Lions have a couple of questionable key players in Taylor Decker and Kerby Joseph. Decker didn’t practice at all this week, but that was the case last week, and he ended up playing. Joseph, meanwhile, was able to return to a limited practice on Friday, so there’s a chance he’ll be able to suit up.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I forgot to note that the Lions have the Chiefs coming up next, so this could be a look-ahead alert. I’m dropping this to two units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Taylor Decker is out, but I don’t think that’ll matter too much against this dreadful Cincinnati defense. The sharps may disagree, however, because they are on Cincinnati. The best line is Detroit -8.5 -110 at ESPNBet.

The Motivation. Edge: Bengals.

The Lions battle the Chiefs next week.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Lions -13.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Lions -7.5.

Computer Model: Lions -10.

The Vegas. Edge: Lions.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 85% (140,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Lions.

Opening Line: Lions -7.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Sunny, 84 degrees. Light wind.