2025 NFL Picks – Week 1: Giants at Redskins

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Everyone seems to be worried about a potential sophomore slump that Jayden Daniels could suffer. While this happened to C.J. Stroud last year, there’s no reason to believe that Daniels will suffer the same fate. After all, Joe Burrow went to the Super Bowl in his second year. Russell Wilson and Ben Roethlisberger won Super Bowls in their second seasons. Carson Wentz was the MVP front-runner in his second year until he tore his ACL, and so on.

Daniels has also been helped by enhanced supporting cast. Laremy Tunsil was acquired via trade, and his presence will be huge against the Giants, who have three dynamic edge rushers, plus Dexter Lawrence. Despite Tunsil’s presence, it doesn’t seem as though the Redskins will fully be able to protect Daniels, so he’ll have to use his legs and make some magic happen like he did last year.

The Giants also figure to be strong against the run and better versus the pass because Jevon Holland was added to the secondary. The Redskins have a questionable ground attack with Jacory Croskey-Merritt taking over for Brian Robinson Jr., so I like the Giants’ chances of containing the Redskins relatively well.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: I loved what the Redskins did this offseason to aid Daniels, but something their front office forgot to do was acquire a talented pass rusher. They added Von Miller, but he’s obviously well past his prime. The Giants have some holes up front, but the offensive line isn’t that bad, so Russell Wilson will have a chance.

Speaking of Wilson, he’s also past his prime, but he figures to be an improvement over what the Giants had at quarterback last year. He can also buy himself time in the pocket and launch some moon balls toward Malik Nabers. The Redskins have two talented cornerbacks, but they’re also starting a second-round rookie at the position and have some issues at safety. Nabers could have a big game.

The Redskins weren’t very strong versus the run last year, so we could see some explosive plays from Tyrone Tracy. The second-year runner wasn’t fully unleashed until the end of the season, so he didn’t get a chance against Washington’s defense.

RECAP: This is an obvious look-ahead spot for the Redskins. They swept the Giants last year, so this game doesn’t mean as much to them as Thursday’s battle against Micah Parsons and the Packers. They know they need extra time to prepare for Parsons, and they can get away with it because the Giants are not a good team.

For those wondering if teams would look ahead on Week 1, I’d like to present the 2024 Bengals, who mailed it in against the Patriots because they had the Chiefs on the horizon. The Redskins could definitely look past the Giants.

And yet, the Giants aren’t that bad. They added some new defensive pieces and have a major upgrade at quarterback over what they had last year once Daniel Jones got hurt. I’m no fan of Wilson, but he’s like Joe Montana compared to Tommy DeVito and Drew Lock. With an underrated roster, the Giants can keep this game close and potentially pull the upset.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: FanDuel has moved this line to +5.5, which is slightly concerning, but they’ve been the only sportsbook to do that. I still love the Giants, as the Redskins will be looking ahead to their impending Thursday night affair.

SATURDAY NOTES: The big news is that Andrew Thomas is listed as doubtful. This obviously sucks, but I still like the Giants. New York’s offensive line isn’t like it was a a couple of years ago because there’s some talent on the front otherwise. Also, the Redskins will be missing one of their top blockers, as Sam Cosmi is on the PUP list. I think the Redskins will be looking ahead to their Thursday night affair regardless.

The Motivation. Edge: Giants.

The Redskins, who swept the Giants last year, battle the Packers on Thursday night.

The Spread. Edge: Redskins.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Redskins -7.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Redskins -6.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Washington: 52% (67,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Giants have won 25 of the last 37 meetings (except the 2022 tie).

Russell Wilson is 36-20 ATS as an underdog.

Redskins are 12-26 ATS in September home games since 2001.

Redskins are 14-28 ATS as home favorites of more than 4 since 2000.

Opening Line: Redskins -7.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Sunny, 70 degrees. Light wind.