2024 NFL Picks – Week 16: Saints at Packers

The Matchup. Edge: Packers.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Green Bay, or should I say Green Gay because I once again am not allowed to broadcast a game involving my Philadelphia Eagles. I’m the big kahuna at this company, so why aren’t the network heads allowing me to broadcast nothing but games involving my Philadelphia Eagles? It’s almost like they think I’m sort of joke, but I can’t be because Mother says I’m special. I still feel like I’m missing out on all the action. If only Mother would just give me an allowance so I didn’t have to work anymore! Guys, what do you think? Should Mother give me an allowance so I don’t have to work anymore?

Emmitt: Thanks, Dark Cecil. As a father or two kid, I am a big pro opponent of allowance to kid. In fact, I just sented a raven with 100 gold dragon coin to my bastard son Emmitt Snow Jr. who living beyond the Great Wall of China. He say he have sexual with ginger, and I very confusion about how he becomed a spice sexual, but whatever float your boot.

Reilly: Emmitt, I think he meant gingers, as in people with red hair who have no souls.

Tollefson: Reilly, you’re right on the money about red heads having no souls. Of all the redheaded women I’ve captured and enslaved, none have shown any passion for me while cooking and cleaning naked. You’d think they’d crack a smile once in a while, but no, never. These are soulless demons.

Reilly: Tolly, I’m now glad that Mother told me to stay away from women because I may have talked to one of these soulless demons, and she may have convinced me to sell my precious Nick Foles bobblehead collection. Speaking of soulless demons, Charissa Thompson is with another foreign leader tonight! Foreign leaders are constantly joining Charissa to argue for their country hosting international games after Roger Goodell stated that he wants to double the number of international games. Charissa, take it away!

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Mike. I’m the first to report that Brett Favre ate peanut butter out of Aaron Rodgers’ rear end. This is a great report that I only I could have uncovered. But now, we are now joined by not one, but two foreign leaders. I understand that you two are in a war. I also feel like both of you have been on here before individually, but I’m not sure about that, and I don’t even really care.

Vladimir Zelensky: Ahh yes, please care, I neeeed more moonneeey please! I svear I no going to launder it to Biden anymore pleaseeee!

Vladimir Putin: Shut up or I vill break you. I here negotiate peace. Give me your country and I vill give you nasing. You make peace, yes?

Charissa Thompson: I wasn’t really paying attention because I’m just too good of a reporter to do that, but that sounds like a good deal to me.

Vladimir Zelensky: Pleeease, I give you Ukraine if you give me mooonneeyy. I already spent all US money on mink coat for vife and fancy sveatshirt for me. Please Putin, neeeed more moooneeeyy!

Vladimir Putin: You no get money! I have nuke! Give me Ookraineoo or I vill break you!

Reilly: What does this have to do with football? Get this rubbish out of here. We have bigger fish to fry here, like asking the network executives to broadcast games with my Philadelphia Eagles. I’m the big kahuna, after all! Camel Toe Harry, do you I agree that I’m the big kahuna?

Kamala Harris: First, let me say this: I’m deeply sorry I was drunk the past two weeks. I grew up in a middle-class family, and I’ve been unburdened by what has been. I promise to lay off the drinks for at least one more week. Second, I’m hearing all this talk about a big kahuna, and I have to say, as someone who grew up in a middle-class family, I’m very interested in this big kahuna. My father always taught me while growing up in a middle-class family that a woman’s place is beside a strong man whom she can sleep with as she rises to the top. So, what do you say, Kevin? Can I ride the big kahuna all the way to the top?

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Kamala, if anyone is the big kahuna here, it’s me, OK, I’m not just the big kahuna, I’m the biggest kahuna there is, and no one has ever seen anything like it, everyone always comes up to me and asks, “Trump, did you know that you are the biggest kahuna that anyone has ever seen?” and I always say, frankly, I knew I was a big kahuna, but I didn’t know I was the biggest kahuna, but you learn something new every day, which is actually false, now maybe its true for stupid people like Kamala, and believe me, Kamala is the stupidest person anyone has ever seen, and no one has ever seen anything like it because she’s a total fraud and a total disgrace, but for the smarter people, they don’t learn anything new on any day because they already knew everything, and believe me, I know most things, so I haven’t learn anything new in a long, long time, we’re talking billions and billions of days that I haven’t learned anything, billions and billions of days, no one has ever seen anything like it.

Wolfley: DONALD, IT’S INTERESTING THAT YOU SAY THAT BECAUSE MY CHILDHOOD FRIEND, A CHRISTMAS TREE WITH ORANGE JUICE FOR EYES AND A PIANO FOR FEET, HASN’T LEARNED ANYTHING IN 500,000 OF YOUR EARTH YEARS.

Reilly: Shut up, guys! New Daddy, did I hear that right? Did Camel Toe Harry just proposition me for sexual relations? It’s a good thing that she’s not a soulless demon ginger, right? Should I do it, New Daddy? Or should I heed Mother’s warnings and stay away from women who want to corrupt me?

Jay Cutler: Did you just say something about having sex with ginger? I didn’t know you were a spice sexual, kid.

Reilly: No, I meant a ginger as in redhead, but that’s not even what Camel Toe Harry is unless she’s hiding her true hair color!

Jay Cutler: Pretty weird that you’re a spice sexual, but I’m not hear to judge.

Reilly: New Daddy, you’re not paying attention! I said it’s a good thing I won’t be having sexual relations with a ginger!

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you’re talking about gingers, Kevin. Let’s discuss some famous gingers, Kevin. How can we not start with Ginger Spice, Kevin? Let’s chat about Amy Adams, Kevin. Then there’s Emma Stone, Kevin. What about Isla Fisher, Kevin? Care to share about Ed Sheeran, Kevin? He ruined Game of Thrones, Kevin. Speaking of, there’s Sophie Turner, Kevin. We can now segue to Reba McEntire, Kevin. And now we can talk about Ruper Grint, Kevin. I imagine that’s the ginger you want to boink, Kevin.

Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS, THE JOKE IS ON YOU ANYWAY BECAUSE MOTHER PROBABLY WOULDN’T ALLOW ME TO BOINK ANYONE ANYWAY BECAUSE THEY WOULD CORRUPT THIS INNOCENT FLOWER! We’ll be back after this!

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: The Packers were incredibly impressive on both sides of the ball in their Sunday night victory over the Seahawks. They ran extremely well on the Seahawks, who had been dominant versus the rush in recent weeks. Josh Jacobs trampled them, and he could treat the Saints similarly.

New Orleans doesn’t stand much of a chance against Jacobs. The Saints are 20th in run defense EPA, so Jacobs projects extremely well. Jacobs’ great running will set up “No Cookie” Jordan Love in favorable down-and-distance situations, which will be a nice boost against the Saints, who generate an average amount of pressure.

Despite the Saints’ pass rush being solid, the team still can’t stop the pass because of injuries and departures in the secondary. The Packers have so many talented weapons for New Orleans to handle.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Packers have so many talented weapons that their fourth receiver would be the Saints’ top threat right now. Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed and Taysom Hill were already injured, and now the Saints likely won’t have Alvin Kamara because of an injury he suffered against the Redskins.

I don’t really know how the Saints are going to move the ball on the Packers. Spencer Rattler, who should take back over for Jake Haener, doesn’t have quality protection or any viable weapons. The Packers generate a good deal of pressure for a team that seldom blitzes, so their pass rush will be able to harass Rattler consistently.

The Packers are also stout against the run, so I wouldn’t count on much from Kendre Miller. While Miller might be a quality runner, he doesn’t offer the receiving ability that Kamara can bring, so it’s hard to envision the Saints having any sort of success on this side of the ball.

RECAP: I still can’t believe the Saints had a back-door cover last week, especially afer they scored only 14 points against the injury-ravaged Giants defense the prior week. Rattler was responsible for the comeback, so there might be more optimism with the Saints now that he’s slated to start for them.

I wouldn’t be too bullish on New Orleans. We’ve seen Rattler struggle before. In his three starts, he lost by double digits against the Buccaneers, Broncos, and Chargers. None of those teams are a Group A opponent like the Packers, who boast a top-12 EPA defense. Backup quarterbacks have a horrible track record against top-12 defenses, and Rattler has the third-worst EPA of any quarterback who has thrown 60 or more passes dating back to the start of 2023.

I’d love the Packers under normal circumstances, but I’m worried about the spot. They’re coming off a statement victory against the Seahawks, and they have to battle the Vikings in a huge revenge game next week. They could be flat.

I’m still going to be on Green Bay because gauging motivation is very difficult, and the talent disparity in this game is impossible to ignore. However, the Packers have sleepwalked through some late-season games before – remember their loss to Tommy DeVito? – so I won’t be betting this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line keeps rising. It opened -13.5, and it’s -14.5 in some places. I wanted to lock in -14, but I don’t feel comfortable doing so without seeing at least one injury report.

SATURDAY NOTES: Alvin Kamara has all but been ruled out, but there’s actually a chance Chris Olave returns this week after being limited twice. I can’t see myself betting either side.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Chris Olave has been ruled out in addition to Alvin Kamara, and it’s looking like Marquez Valdes-Scantling might be sidelined as well.

MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: Nothing has changed for me regarding this game. If you believe the Packers will put forth effort, definitely bet them. If, however, the Packers don’t show up like the Bills failed to do so versus the Patriots yesterday, then this could be a close Green Bay victory.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: The Saints have major problems dealing with left wide receivers. Christian Watson plays on the left in three-receiver sets. He also has some major upside. The best line is over 47.5 receiving yards -110 at FanDuel.

We’re going to add Watson’s receiving yards to a same-game parlay with Jayden Reed over 44.5 receiving yards, Juwan Johnson over 30.5 receiving yards, and Dante Pettis over 16.5 receiving yards. The Saints are also poor against slot receivers. The Packers tend to give up lots of production to tight ends. As for Pettis, he saw five targets last week, and all the top receivers are injured. This $25 parlay pays $270.44 on FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Saints are missing all of their key players, including Marquez Valdes-Scantling. There’s no sharp action on this game. I still don’t have a strong feeling either way. This line has moved to -14.5 in some places, but you can still get -14 -110 at BetMGM and Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Saints.

The Packers could be flat off their win against the Seahawks. They battle the Vikings after this.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -13.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -13.5.

Computer Model: Packers -9.

The Vegas. Edge: Packers.

No surprise where the money is going.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 78% (50,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Packers are 41-24 ATS in December/January home games since 2000.

Matt LaFleur is 57-39 ATS in the regular season.

Opening Line: Packers -13.5.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 31 degrees. Light wind.