2024 NFL Picks – Week 11: Packers at Bears

The Matchup. Edge: TBA.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

CHICAGO OFFENSE: I felt like such an idiot watching the Chicago game. I recognized the team’s offensive line woes, specifically at tackle, too late to make a full adjustment. I dropped the unit count from five to four, but it wasn’t enough.

It was almost laughable. Caleb Williams’ accuracy was all over the place against the Patriots, but he didn’t have a chance. He took nine sacks from a Patriot team that wasn’t generating much pressure on the quarterback. New England has the 10th-worst pressure rate in the NFL. The Packers, by contrast, are 11th in pressure rate, but that’s misleading because they don’t blitz often. In fact, Green Bay has the best pressure rate for any NFL team that doesn’t blitz at least 20 percent of the time.

Williams will need at least one of his tackles back in action. If either Darnell Wright or Braxton Jones returns, Williams will have a chance to survive Green Bay’s defense. He’ll also be able to hand the ball off successfully to D’Andre Swift, given that Green Bay has a weaker run defense.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Like Williams, “No Cookie” Jordan Love had his struggles in his previous game. His poor play wasn’t purely performance related, however, as he was hindered by a groin problem. Love couldn’t move out of pressure, which led to a pick-six. He also couldn’t move in the 2-minute drill on a downfield pass to spike the ball to stop the clock.

I’d be worried about Love if he didn’t have a bye week, but he’s had plenty of time to heal. He should be close to 100 percent, and if so, he’ll be able to capitalize off some positive opportunities created by his running game.

It’ll be shocking if the Packers don’t get chunks of yardage on the ground. While the Bears have a strong defense against the pass, they’re weak to the run, so Josh Jacobs will put Williams in short-yardage situations. Love will be able to target all of his talented receivers without having to deal with too many third-and-longs.

RECAP: As I mentioned in the prior pick capsule, I made a huge mistake betting the Bears at -6. I didn’t account for all the injuries on their offensive line. Williams was sacked nine times, which wasn’t a surprise in the slightest.

It’s too early to make a determination on this game because we don’t know the status of the injured offensive linemen I discussed above. If one of the tackles practices fully and returns, I’ll be comfortable siding with the Bears. We’re getting amazing line value with them, after all. The advance spread on this game was Green Bay -2.5, and now it’s -6, which is way too drastic for one game. And it really is only one game because the Packers are coming off a bye.

If the Bears will get their linemen back from injury, then this spread movement is completely unwarranted, and I’ll happily grab the +6. If, however, Chicago’s offensive line will continue to be a disaster, then I’ll side with the Packers, but I don’t know if I can bet them because it’s unclear if Love is 100 percent off the groin injury that hindered him in Week 9.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I like the idea of taking the Bears more with Shane Waldron fired. Also, Braxton Jones and Darnell Wright were limited on Wednesday, so that’s a good sign for Chicago. I may end up betting the Bears, but we’ll see how the rest of the week goes.

PLAYER PROPS: Nothing here because there are too many injury question marks with Josh Jacobs and the Chicago offensive line.

SATURDAY NOTES: Teven Jenkins is out, but the Bears will have both tackles available. Both tackles practiced fully on Friday, which is what I wanted to see. I’m going to be betting a couple of units on Chicago.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have been on both sides of this game. I still like Chicago for a couple of units. I was hoping to get a viable +6, and we certainly got one. You can get Bears +6 -105 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Bears.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -2.5.

Computer Model: Packers -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: TBA.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 81% (107,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: TBA.

History: Packers have won 19 of the last 21 meetings.

Packers are 65-42 ATS in divisional games since 2006.

Matt LaFleur is 53-38 ATS in the regular season.

Opening Line: Packers -6.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 56 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.