2024 NFL Picks – Week 2: Saints at Cowboys

The Matchup. Edge: Cowboys.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s some hate mail from last week:

This is from our old friend Nephtali Diaz. Obviously, I was being sarcastic about the Saints-Panthers game being up in the air. I probably should have guessed that Nephtali wouldn’t understand sarcasm.

There’s no way Nephtali would have gotten the last line either. I don’t know why I even try with this guy. I’d just be better off posting irrelevant gifs because that’s all this guy seems to understand.

I’m shocked he didn’t say anything in response to this. Hopefully we’ll hear more from Nephtali next week!

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Cowboys were able to dominate the Browns defensively because of what transpired prior to the game. Jedrick Wills and Jack Conklin were both ruled out, so the Browns didn’t have either starting tackle against Dallas’ dynamic edge rush. Micah Parsons had a field day against Deshaun Watson as a result.

Parsons and company will treat Derek Carr similarly. The Saints have the worst offensive line in the NFC, but the Panthers weren’t able to take advantage of that because of Brian Burns’ departure. Parsons and the rest of the Dallas edge rushers will be able to do so.

If the Saints had a better offensive line, I’d have faith that they could establish Alvin Kamara to help keep Carr clean. I just don’t see that happening, even against a pedestrian Dallas ground defense, given the blocking woes.

DALLAS OFFENSE: The Saints aren’t the only team with offensive line issues in this game. The Cowboys have concerns in that department as well. Rookie tackle Tyler Guyton was a disaster in his debut, though understandably so against Myles Garrett. Zack Martin continued to look old. Rookie center Cooper Beebe at least performed on a high level, so there’s some hope.

The Saints, however, are not a team that can take advantage of offensive line liabilities. Cameron Jordan is decrepit at this stage of his career, while Bryan Breese has been a big disappointment. Dak Prescott figures to have a clean pocket for most of the game, so he’ll have a much easier time connecting with CeeDee Lamb.

The running game won’t produce much, however, so the Saints may have a chance at a back-door cover if the Cowboys jump out to a big lead. New Orleans is stronger versus the run than the pass, and neither Ezekiel Elliott nor Rico Dowdle pose much of a threat anyway. It’s mystifying as to why the Cowboys haven’t traded for a running back like Khalil Herbert.

RECAP: These are two teams I wanted to fade this year. As it so happens, both won in Week 1 in blowout fashion. In an idea world, this would have happened to only one of these teams, giving us a great betting opportunity with the other team.

I’m going to side with the Cowboys because I love the edge they have in the trenches. I’m not convinced that the Saints can block at all despite what occurred last week versus the Panthers. If I’m right, they’re going to have a major problems keeping Parsons and company out of the backfield.

Having said that, I don’t like Dallas very much, and this spread seems to be a bit inflated. Plus, Dallas could be looking ahead to Baltimore next week.

One other thing I’d like to note is that the Francine storm may impact this game. Saints players may be distracted with Francine set to crash right into Louisiana. Depending on how strong it is, the Cowboys may be worth a wager.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps took another +6.5 here, grabbing the Saints. Despite this, many New Orleans players missed Wednesday’s practice, but it’s still early in the week.

SATURDAY NOTES: Marshon Lattimore missed practice all week. Taliese Fuaga missed practice Thursday and Friday. This is obviously horrible news for the Saints. If Fuaga is sidelined, that means Micah Parsons and company will be up against a team missing both tackles for the second week in a row. I’m going to put two units on Dallas.

PLAYER PROPS: I’m betting Rashid Shaheed under 39.5 receiving yards. Shaheed is a deep threat. This means Derek Carr will need time to locate him downfield. Carr had that time against the Panthers’ Brian Burns-less pass rush, but it’ll be a different story against Micah Parsons, especially if Tallies Fuaga is sidelined. The best number is under 39.5 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Marshon Lattimore is out, but Tallies Fuaga will play, so New Orleans’ offensive line at least has some hope to block Dallas a little bit. I projected two units on the Cowboys with the thought that Fuaga would be out, so I’m not going to place a bet on this game. The sharps haven’t touched this one either. The best line is -6 -115 at Bet365. You can Bet $5 And Get $150 Or Get A First Bet Safety Net Up To $1,000 from Bet365 by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

The Cowboys may look ahead to the Ravens, but the Saints could be distracted by the hurricane.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cowboys -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -6.

Computer Model: Cowboys -6.

The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.

Slight lean on the Cowboys.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 64% (116,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.

Dak Prescott is 38-29 ATS at home.

Opening Line: Cowboys -6.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Dome.