2025 NFL Picks – Week 11: Seahawks at Rams

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Seahawks have had more explosive plays per game than any team since the 2001 “Greatest Show on Turf” Rams. That’s not an exaggeration. That’s an actual stat. Sam Darnold to Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been unstoppable this year. The two hooked up for a deep play on the first drive of Sunday’s game, en route to a 44-22 victory.

The Seahawks will certainly be tested in this game. They have yet to battle a defense ranked in the top five of EPA yet this year. The Texans are closest at No. 7, and the Seahawks scored “just” 27 points against them. The Rams are third in defensive EPA, thanks in part to their ferocious pass rush. Darnold knows all about the pass rush, as the Rams rattled him in a first-round playoff matchup this past January. Darnold had a great 2024 campaign, but struggled mightily in that blowout defeat. He’ll have to overcome his past demons – or ghosts, rather – to perform well in this game.

I’m sure Darnold will be hoping that he can lean on his rushing attack. The Seahawks love to run the ball, but it remains to be seen if they’ll have success on the ground. The Rams rank second against the run, which sounds bearish for Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet, but the Rams’ ground defense has been inconsistent this year.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: Sam Darnold won’t be the only quarterback in this contest with a difficult matchup. Matthew Stafford will have to operate against the league’s No. 1 defense. The Seahawks have the second-best pressure rate in the NFL despite seldom blitzing. Only the Bengals blitz less often than the Seahawks. Elite quarterbacks can often dissect the blitz, but Stafford won’t have that luxury while going up against a lethal pass rush.

Of course, Stafford can release the ball quickly and exploit some matchups. Puka Nacua is the obvious one, but I imagine Stafford will make great use of his tight ends. Stafford is able to utilize four different tight ends, which is a nightmare for the Seahawks, who struggle to cover tight ends more than any other team in the NFL.

Conversely, no team is better against the run than the Seahawks. Kyren Williams ran well against the 49ers, but he won’t have nearly as much success versus Seattle.

RECAP: The Seahawks and Rams have been two of the best teams in the NFL this year. On the surface, a line of Rams -3 seems totally fair. This seems like a balanced matchup and could be a coin flip.

However, I would favor the Rams for a couple of reasons. First, the Seahawks haven’t been tested yet this year. They haven’t played a single team above Group C, save for the 49ers back in Week 1. The 49ers, who were healthy back then, defeated Seattle in a close game. Otherwise, the Seahawks haven’t had a tough game yet. For this reason, it’s unclear if they’re worth all of the acclaim they’ve been receiving.

Second, Darnold was, to quote the great Emmitt Smith, debacled in January’s playoff matchup against this very same Rams defense. Darnold is a quarterback who once saw ghosts on national TV, so who’s to say that this won’t happen again?

I won’t discount the possibility that Darnold can vanquish his ghosts, and that the Seahawks are completely legitimate. I just need to see it first. I don’t plan on betting this game, but given the possibility that Seattle might be elite, I’ll be on the Rams for no units.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Despite there being a ton of public action on the Seahawks, the line has risen from -2.5 to -3. It appears as though the sharps are on the Rams, but they could be betting them up via phantom action to get the +3 on Seattle. We’ll see!

SATURDAY NOTES: The Rams have a couple of key questionable players, as Kobie Turner and Davante Adams are both iffy to play. Adams seems to have the better chance because he was DNP-limited-limited, as opposed to Turner, who was DNP-DNP-limited. Many may not know who Turner is, but he has 27 pressures on the year, so he’ll be missed if he can’t go. Also, if you want to see a crazed Seahawks fan defend his team on my picks livestream, have a listen:

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This line has blown through -3 in most books. The pros love the Rams.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There was some question about Davante Adams being able to play, but he’s active. The sharps, as mentioned, are on the Rams. The best line is -3 -120 at DraftKings and FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Seahawks.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Rams -2.5.

Computer Model: Rams -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

The Seahawks are a big public dog.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 78% (112,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Rams have won 15 of the last 22 meetings, excluding when they sat their starters.

Opening Line: Rams -2.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Dome.