2025 NFL Picks – Week 11: Panthers at Falcons

The Matchup. Edge: Falcons.

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ATLANTA OFFENSE: The Falcons won’t face much of an issue exceeding their point total from the first meeting between these teams. That, of course, is because they scored exactly zero points in what was a truly pathetic effort. The Falcons, coming off a national TV victory over the Vikings, were a complete no-show in the Week 3 matchup.

Now 3-6, the Falcons have no choice but to try hard against the Panthers. This means they’ll be able to move the chains aerially against in this matchup. Carolina was ranked highly in pass defense earlier in the season, but that’s not the case anymore. The Panthers have one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL, which is part of the reason why Tyler Shough was able to have his way with Carolina’s defense. Michael Penix Jr. has been inconsistent this year, but he’ll have plenty of time in the pocket to locate Drake London, who has been hot lately. Kyle Pitts should also have a strong performance because Carolina is weak to tight ends.

The Panthers are at least better versus the run, ranking ninth overall in that regard. This is a big deal against Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, but the Falcons should be able to utilize Robinson successfully as a receiver out of the backfield.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: The Panthers had their own pathetic performance following a big win. They were able to upset Green Bay, but responded with a hideous home defeat against the Saints, losing 17-7.

Bryce Young wasn’t able to do anything against the Saints in what was an easy matchup. This is a much more difficult one. The Falcons have some great talent in the secondary that can limit opposing passing attacks. We saw this occur in the Germany game this past week, as Daniel Jones couldn’t get anything consistent downfield. Jones also saw plenty of pressure and was strip-sacked twice in the red zone.

What we also saw – or at least those who weren’t boycotting the game – was Jonathan Taylor trampling over Atlanta’s poor run defense. While the Falcons are great against opposing aerial attacks, they cannot stop the run, ranking 27th in that regard. The Panthers have a strong run-blocking front that can open up some nice running lanes for Rico Dowdle, who has been excellent since the beginning of October.

RECAP: The Falcons are better than the Panthers despite owning the worse record. They are also seeking revenge for their embarrassing 30-0 loss in Week 3. I would ordinarily have interest in Atlanta to cover the spread, but I just can’t do it.

One of the problems is that the Falcons are in a poor travel spot. They’re flying from Germany back to Atlanta on no rest, which doesn’t seem like a promising scenario. Also, the Falcons are poorly coached, so it’s difficult to trust them because of Raheem Morris’ incompetence. I’ll still side with them for office pool purposes, but I can’t get myself to bet this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I still can’t believe the Falcons opted not to take the bye after their Germany game. That’s just a microcosm of how poorly run Atlanta is.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Falcons could have some severe injury issues, particularly on their offensive line. They’re already missing two offensive linemen from last week, which will continue to be the case. A third lineman, Chris Lindstrom, who happens to be Atlanta’s best lineman, barely practiced this week. Meanwhile, Drake London was limited all week as well. On the other side, Leonard Floyd will be sidelined once again. The Panthers, conversely, are completely healthy. I’m going to side with the Panthers, but I can’t really bring myself to bet them.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Chris Lindstrom will play, but there’s no guarantee that he’s healthy. The sharps bet on the Falcons at -3.5. The best line is -4 -103 at Bookmaker. The best line is the standard +4 -110 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Falcons -3.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Falcons -3.5.

Computer Model: Falcons -4.

The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.

No edge found.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 52% (86,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Falcons.

History: Panthers have won 4 of the last 5 meetings.

Raheem Morris is 3-6 ATS in same-season revenge games.

Opening Line: Falcons -3.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Dome.