2025 NFL Picks – Week 11: Bears at Vikings

The Matchup. Edge: Vikings.

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CHICAGO OFFENSE: Caleb Williams’ second season began with this matchup on a Monday night. He made some quality throws, but struggled overall. The Bears led during the second half, but the Vikings staged a great comeback in the fourth quarter, and Williams couldn’t do anything about it at the very end to potentially win the game.

Williams will have a chance at redemption, but I don’t like his chances very much. Williams going up against Brian Flores seems like a giant mismatch, especially when Andrew Van Ginkel is on the field. Van Ginkel missed several games, but finally returned a couple of weeks ago. It was no surprise that Minnesota’s defense performed much better with Van Ginkel on the field, putting the clamps on the Lions and limiting the Ravens.

The Vikings have been much better against the run with Van Ginkel and Blake Cashman back in action. This bodes well against the Bears, who need to run the ball well to cover up Williams’ issues.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Van Ginkel and Cashman aren’t the only two prominent Vikings to return from injury lately. Minnesota also welcomed back their two starting tackles, Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill. This was incredibly helpful for the offense, given that the line couldn’t block at all when the two tackles were sidelined.

With Darrisaw and O’Neill blocking for him, J.J. McCarthy won’t be touched in this game. The Bears have the worst pressure rate in the NFL, which puts great stress on their injury-ravaged secondary. Having multiple cornerbacks out against Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison is not a bullish outlook.

Speaking of Chicago injuries, T.J. Edwards was sorely missed last week. Edwards is the glue who holds everything together on Chicago’s defense, and whenever he’s missed time, the Bears have seen their ninth-ranked run defense turn into a complete sieve. If he’s out again, Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason will pick up big chunks on the ground.

RECAP: I love the Vikings moving forward in the second half of the season. I didn’t want to bet them last week because I felt the same way about the Ravens. We can now continue our regularly scheduled programming by betting on this underrated Minnesota team that is much healthier than it was in the first month-and-a-half of the season.

Conversely, the Bears seem like a great fade right now. They’re one of the most overrated teams in the NFL at 6-3. They’ve gotten incredibly lucky with turnovers, and they easily could have lost to the Raiders, Redskins, and Giants. The last I checked, none of those teams are very good. Had the Bears fallen to those teams, they’d be 3-6, and I can assure you that this line wouldn’t be +3 in that case.

Not only do we have an overrated versus underrated dynamic; we can also take advantage of a massive, lopsided matchup in this game, which would be Minnesota’s receivers against Chicago’s skeleton-crew secondary. The Vikings, who have taken eight of the previous nine from the Bears, figure to make it 9-of-10 with this huge edge.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No T.J. Edwards in Wednesday’s practice is a good thing. The Vikings should be able to win and cover.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Vikings suddenly have a major injury with Jonathan Greenard ruled out. Greenard is Minnesota’s best edge rusher, so it’s not ideal that he’ll be sidelined. Also, there’s a chance Jaylon Johnson will return for Chicago, though Johnson didn’t have a full practice this week, so he may not be 100 percent even if he returns. Making matters worse for the Bears, they won’t have Edwards this week, and they may not have their top defensive back, Jaquan Brisker, either. Brisker was DNP-DNP-limited this week, so he’s very shaky to play.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Jaylon Johnson isn’t back yet, but is close to returning. There’s been sharp action on both sides, with the pros betting the Vikings at -2.5 and the Bears at +3. The best line is -2.5 -113 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Vikings -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Vikings -2.5.

Computer Model: Vikings -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.

Public underdog on the Bears.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 63% (92,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

History: Vikings won 8 of the last 9 meetings.

Vikings are 50-41 ATS at home since 2014 (19-26 ATS since 2020).

Opening Line: Vikings -2.5.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Dome.