2025 NFL Picks – Week 11: Lions at Eagles

The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

If you didn’t catch it, I posted live bets during Week 10, including Daniel Jones over 50 rushing yards +750. I’ll be posting more live bets on X because it takes time to upload things to the site, so by the time I do, the line may be stale. Follow me @walterfootball for those live betting updates.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Any hope the Eagles had of maintaining their dominant running game that they established against the Giants prior to the bye disappeared at Lambeau Field. Saquon Barkley once again struggled to find running lanes. Granted, Lane Johnson missed about two quarters of action, but it’s not like Barkley was picking up chunks of yardage with Johnson on the field. Perhaps Barkley will reestablish himself, but it appears as though the performance against the Giants was a mirage.

If so, the Eagles certainly will not get anything on the ground via Barkley in this game. The Lions often have a solid run defense and are ranked on the border of the top 10. It’ll be difficult for Barkley to be dominant against this opponent.

However, I made sure to note Barkley on the ground and not Jalen Hurts. The Lions have struggled against mobile quarterbacks over the years, so Hurts could give them some fits. Hurts can also attack a Lions secondary that is missing some personnel.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions won’t be able to run either. They base their offense on being able to pound the ball with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, but the Eagles have one of the best run defenses in the NFL. They rank fourth in that category.

Jared Goff will have to operate without Gibbs and Montgomery ripping off chunks of yardage. While Goff can succeed under these circumstances against mediocre or worse pass defenses, things will certainly be much different in this matchup.

The Eagles have bolstered their pass rush with the trade of Jaelan Phillips and the return of Nolan Smith and Brandon Graham. They’ll be able to flood the backfield, which could create havoc for Goff, especially if either Penei Sewell or Taylor Decker misses time. Both tackles played last week, but neither is 100-percent healthy right now. Sewell missed some action versus the Redskins, but was able to return to the field.

RECAP: Of all the quarterbacks in the NFL, Goff has one of the widest dichotomies when it comes to his performances when kept clean and when he’s under pressure. Of course, every quarterback doesn’t fare as well when under pressure. Take Hurts, for example. When under pressure, his completion percentage drops by 17 percent, and his YPA falls by 1.7. Goff, however, is at another level. His YPA drops by 2.1, which is comparable, but his completion percentage drops by a staggering 32 percent.

I’m mentioning Goff’s pressure stats because he’ll see plenty of pressure in this game, especially if his tackles aren’t healthy. The Eagles, now with Phillips, Smith, and Graham, have one of the best pass rushes in the NFL. Their interior pass rush is especially lethal, and that’s where the Lions are weak up front. Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis should be able to dominate the interior.

Furthermore, the weather report indicates that there’s a 50-percent chance of rain. Most weathermen are liars, but if there will be rain, it’ll greatly hurt Goff, who often fares poorly in the elements.

If the Eagles weren’t coming off a short week, I’d consider them as a large wager. Teams are 8-16 against the spread following Monday Night Football this year, so the Eagles aren’t in a good spot, especially after such a hard-hitting affair versus the Packers. I’m still going to side with them for a smaller wager because I believe in their pass rush so much versus Goff. If there’s a strong indication of rain, I’ll increase the unit count.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s looking like percent chance of rain for this game is down 33 percent, but I still like the Eagles to cover because of their pressure.

SATURDAY NOTES: Sam LaPorta is out, but the Lions will have a chance to get some players back from injury, namely D.J. Reed and Malcolm Rodriguez. It’s not quite clear if they’ll be 100 percent, however.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: We’ll have to check the inactives list to see which Lions players will be on the field. I still like the Eagles for a couple of units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Detroit won’t have D.J. Reed or Malcolm Rodriguez available. The public is all over the Lions, while the sharps are on the Eagles. The best line is -2.5 -113 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Lions.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -1.5.

Computer Model: Lions -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.

The Lions are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 77% (146,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

Nick Sirianni is 2-5 ATS after Monday Night Football.

Opening Line: Eagles -1.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Clear, 46 degrees. Light wind.