NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 11, 2025 – Late Games

NFL Picks (Week 1, 2025): 9-7 (-$725)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2025): 7-9 (-$925)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2025): 6-10 (-$1,285)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2025): 6-10 (+$410)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2025): 8-6 (-$25)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2025): 8-7 (-$785)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2025): 9-6 (+$1,160)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2025): 9-4 (+$115)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2025): 8-6 (-$545)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2025): 7-6-1 (+$1,260)
2025 NFL Picks: 86-73-2 (-$455)

2024 NFL Picks: 144-136-12 (-$1,380)
NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

---

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 16, 11:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 11 NFL Picks – Early Games

The Matchup. Edge: None.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now. Besides, I wrote a similar-type book is called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:

Oh, and my other book is still available as well:

In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Seahawks have had more explosive plays per game than any team since the 2001 “Greatest Show on Turf” Rams. That’s not an exaggeration. That’s an actual stat. Sam Darnold to Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been unstoppable this year. The two hooked up for a deep play on the first drive of Sunday’s game, en route to a 44-22 victory.

The Seahawks will certainly be tested in this game. They have yet to battle a defense ranked in the top five of EPA yet this year. The Texans are closest at No. 7, and the Seahawks scored “just” 27 points against them. The Rams are third in defensive EPA, thanks in part to their ferocious pass rush. Darnold knows all about the pass rush, as the Rams rattled him in a first-round playoff matchup this past January. Darnold had a great 2024 campaign, but struggled mightily in that blowout defeat. He’ll have to overcome his past demons – or ghosts, rather – to perform well in this game.

I’m sure Darnold will be hoping that he can lean on his rushing attack. The Seahawks love to run the ball, but it remains to be seen if they’ll have success on the ground. The Rams rank second against the run, which sounds bearish for Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet, but the Rams’ ground defense has been inconsistent this year.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: Sam Darnold won’t be the only quarterback in this contest with a difficult matchup. Matthew Stafford will have to operate against the league’s No. 1 defense. The Seahawks have the second-best pressure rate in the NFL despite seldom blitzing. Only the Bengals blitz less often than the Seahawks. Elite quarterbacks can often dissect the blitz, but Stafford won’t have that luxury while going up against a lethal pass rush.

Of course, Stafford can release the ball quickly and exploit some matchups. Puka Nacua is the obvious one, but I imagine Stafford will make great use of his tight ends. Stafford is able to utilize four different tight ends, which is a nightmare for the Seahawks, who struggle to cover tight ends more than any other team in the NFL.

Conversely, no team is better against the run than the Seahawks. Kyren Williams ran well against the 49ers, but he won’t have nearly as much success versus Seattle.

RECAP: The Seahawks and Rams have been two of the best teams in the NFL this year. On the surface, a line of Rams -3 seems totally fair. This seems like a balanced matchup and could be a coin flip.

However, I would favor the Rams for a couple of reasons. First, the Seahawks haven’t been tested yet this year. They haven’t played a single team above Group C, save for the 49ers back in Week 1. The 49ers, who were healthy back then, defeated Seattle in a close game. Otherwise, the Seahawks haven’t had a tough game yet. For this reason, it’s unclear if they’re worth all of the acclaim they’ve been receiving.

Second, Darnold was, to quote the great Emmitt Smith, debacled in January’s playoff matchup against this very same Rams defense. Darnold is a quarterback who once saw ghosts on national TV, so who’s to say that this won’t happen again?

I won’t discount the possibility that Darnold can vanquish his ghosts, and that the Seahawks are completely legitimate. I just need to see it first. I don’t plan on betting this game, but given the possibility that Seattle might be elite, I’ll be on the Rams for no units.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Despite there being a ton of public action on the Seahawks, the line has risen from -2.5 to -3. It appears as though the sharps are on the Rams, but they could be betting them up via phantom action to get the +3 on Seattle. We’ll see!

SATURDAY NOTES: The Rams have a couple of key questionable players, as Kobie Turner and Davante Adams are both iffy to play. Adams seems to have the better chance because he was DNP-limited-limited, as opposed to Turner, who was DNP-DNP-limited. Many may not know who Turner is, but he has 27 pressures on the year, so he’ll be missed if he can’t go. Also, if you want to see a crazed Seahawks fan defend his team on my picks livestream, have a listen:

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This line has blown through -3 in most books. The pros love the Rams.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There was some question about Davante Adams being able to play, but he’s active. The sharps, as mentioned, are on the Rams. The best line is -3 -120 at DraftKings and FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Seahawks.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Rams -2.5.

Computer Model: Rams -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

The Seahawks are a big public dog.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 78% (112,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Rams.

History: Rams have won 15 of the last 22 meetings, excluding when they sat their starters.

Opening Line: Rams -2.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Cardinals.

If you’re looking to bet legally, you can get the best sportsbook promos where you’ll get hundreds of dollars in free wagers if you sign up using the links on this page.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Poor Jacoby Brissett. He didn’t have a chance. Brissett played much better than Kyler Murray in his first three starts for the Cardinals, but didn’t battle a single defense ranked better than 14th. He took on Seattle’s top-five defense last week and predictably struggled. He was strip-sacked twice in the firt half, setting up two touchdowns for Seattle.

Things will be back to normal for Brissett in this game. That wouldn’t have been the case to start the year, but San Francisco’s defense has been ravaged by injury. Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, and several others have been sidelined for some time. As a result, San Francisco’s defense ranks 28th in the NFL.

The 49ers have no pass rush, so they won’t strip-sack Brissett like the Seahawks. Brissett’s added time in the pocket will make it easy for him to repeatedly connect with Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison Jr. The 49ers are better against the run, but that shouldn’t matter very much because it’s not like the Cardinals rush the ball well anyway.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers have also endured plenty of injuries on this side of the ball. Somehow, Christian McCaffrey has remained unscathed, but San Francisco has been without Brock Purdy and Ricky Pearsall for quite some time.

Jones is another backup quarterback who can’t perform as well versus top defenses. Jones probably wishes he could take on the 49ers defense in real action, especially when it comes to this matchup because the Cardinals are an underrated 12th in defense. They’re better against the run (11th), which will be helpful in containing McCaffrey. The dynamic back was limited to just 52 rushing yards on 17 attempts in the Week 3 matchup.

One area of concern for the Cardinals is their cornerback health. They were down their top two corners against the Seahawks and couldn’t cover Jaxon Smith-Njigba as a result. It remains to be seen if either of the two corners will return to action. If not, Jones will be able to thrive while connecting with Jauan Jennings, who has been hot lately.

RECAP: We’ll have to wait on this one for the injury report. If the Cardinals are able to get at least one of their starting cornerbacks back from injury, Arizona will look like a great play. Backup quarterbacks tend to struggle against quality defenses, so that would apply to Jones in that scenario. We’d also be getting the Cardinals at a ridiculous price of +2.5, or perhaps even +3. I personally made the line Arizona -1.5, yet the current spread is an overreaction to the Cardinals’ blowout loss to the Seahawks, as well as the public’s inaccurate perception of the 49ers.

If, however, the Cardinals will be missing both cornerbacks again, I won’t have much interest in Arizona. I don’t think I’d necessarily back the 49ers, but this would be a non-bet selection on the home underdog.

Check back later, but this might be a two- or three-unit selection on the Cardinals.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I don’t know why this line has gone to +3, but I still like Arizona. The Cardinals saw Max Melton return to a limited practice on Wednesday, though Will Johnson was DNP.

SATURDAY NOTES: Brock Purdy and Ricky Pearsall are back for the 49ers. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have injuries all over the place. Marvin Harrison Jr. is out. One of their tackles, Jonah Williams, is out. Top cornerback Will Johnson is out. Starting linebacker Mack Wilson is out. Quality edge rusher Baron Browning is out. Two defensive linemen, including Walter Nolen, are questionable after failing to practice fully all week. I’m going to remove my two units.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps are pounding the 49ers with all of their players back from injury. Also, Arizona has some injury issues.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Again, the sharps are on the 49ers, perhaps because of the severe injury disparity. The best line for Arizona is +3.5 -113 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Cardinals.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cardinals -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: 49ers -1.5.

Computer Model: Cardinals -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.

Plenty of money on the 49ers.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 72% (92,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

History: 49ers have won 5 of the last 7 meetings.

Opening Line: 49ers -1.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Ravens.

I told you about my two books, How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen and a Safety and a Field Goal! Well, I’ve written a third book that was released this past spring! It’s called Jerks of the College Years. If you like Jerks of the Week, you’ll like Jerks of the College Years, as it’s a collection of weirdos I wrote about during my time at Penn State.

You can support the site by buying this book and spreading the word!

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Lamar Jackson continues to get better every week. Jackson looked rusty in the first half of the Miami game before he roasted the Dolphins in the second half. He then was able to lead his team to victory over a tough Minnesota defense that has been boosted lately by the return of Andrew Van Ginkel from injury.

Jackson has another difficult test against the Browns, but it’s not like he hasn’t overcome them in the past. Back in Week 2, Jackson had a slow start versus Cleveland before extending the lead in the second half and ultimately scoring 41 points against them. The Browns defense looked exhausted at the end of that game, which was the case in the second half versus the Jets.

The Browns will do what they can to limit the Ravens, and it could work for a bit. Ultimately, however, they’ll have to get some assistance from the offense to avoid another late-game meltdown.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Will we see the Browns’ scoring unit help its defense out at all in this game? No. No, they will not.

The Browns, as they are currently constructed, could have perhaps had some offensive success against the Ravens in Weeks 4-6 when the team had catastrophic injuries. That’s not the case anymore, as nearly everyone has returned to the defense. Since Week 8, the Ravens have sported the No. 7 defense in the NFL. As I noted repeatedly last week, backup quarterbacks play poorly against top-10 defense. The thing is, Dillon Gabriel may not even be a backup-caliber quarterback. He looks like a third-string practice squad player at best, and I’m not even sure he could start in the CFL. He’s small, he has no arm strength, and he doesn’t understand what’s happening with the opposing defense.

Dillon, who couldn’t even succeed against the Jets’ bottom-five defense, is going to get crushed by the Ravens. Baltimore will not respect him, so the team will be able to play closer to the line of scrimmage to contain Quinshon Judkins. This is going to be an ugly performance by Cleveland’s offense.

RECAP: Whenever you see a large favorite like this, you need to inspect if they’ll be looking ahead to a tough matchup or looking behind to a big win. Neither is true for the Ravens, who battle the Jets next week.

This is a big game for the Ravens because they’ll be able to improve to 5-5 and potentially tie the Steelers atop the AFC North. It’s also a great matchup because their seventh-ranked defense will have its way with Gabriel, who needs to be faded against every tough defense he’ll battle moving forward because he’s not a real NFL quarterback.

If you couldn’t tell, I plan on betting a healthy sum against the Ravens. This line may seem high, but I think it’s about right. The projected spread accounts for the disparity in the talent of these two teams, but it doesn’t factor in the extremely favorable matchup Baltimore has versus Gabriel.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There might be some heavy winds in this game, but weather is impossible to predict, so this could actually be a nice weather game.

SATURDAY NOTES: If you’re looking at the injury report and seeing that Marlon Humphrey is out, don’t worry about it. Humphrey’s not even playing well this year, but even if he were, the Browns couldn’t take advantage of that. Meanwhile, the Browns have a couple of injured defensive linemen, including top edge run stuffer Alex Wright (excluding Myles Garrett). Maliek Collins, meanwhile, is questionable. Also, there’s supposedly poor weather in the forecast, but weathermen don’t know how to predict anything, so there’s no way of knowing if the conditions will be poor.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m going to be betting the Browns team total under. Even if the Ravens can’t score enough to cover, we should win some money with the Browns under.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s no sharp aciton on this game. I’m sure we’ll get more special-teams garbage go against us in this game, but I just bet the Ravens -7.5 -105 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

I’m also betting the Browns team total under. BetMGM has a 20-percent boost up to $100 for the NFL. We can turn Browns under 14.5 -120 into +100.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Ravens -8.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -7.5.

Computer Model: Ravens -7.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 84% (104,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Ravens.

History: Ravens have won 27 of the last 35 meetings.

John Harbaugh is 16-8 ATS in his second-consecutive road game.

Kevin Stefanski is 2-6 ATS in same-season revenge games.

Kevin Stefanski is 1-5 ATS as a divisional underdog of 7+.

Opening Line: Ravens -8.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 44 degrees. HEAVY WINDS, 23 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is another part of my Walt Goes to Vegas series, where I discuss the toxic hot tub.

DENVER OFFENSE: Sean Payton had one of the worst game plans you’ll ever see from a successful head coach. His team scored only 10 points against the horrible Raiders defense last Thursday night. Bo Nix was awful with his hideous footwork causing some poor throws, but Payton didn’t help with his dreadful play-calling. It’s almost like Payton wanted to utilize all the trick plays to see what would work because he had no respect for the Raiders.

I’d expect a more serious game plan from Payton this time, but he’ll be going against a tougher opponent. Unlike the Raiders, the Chiefs have a solid pass rush and will be able to rattle Nix a bit. If Nix continues to display poor footwork, this could cause some interceptions.

All hope isn’t lost here for the Broncos, however. The Chiefs have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL; they rank 26th in that regard, and we know that Denver can run effectively with J.K. Dobbins and R.J. Harvey.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Payton isn’t the only head coach in this game who had a poor game plan in his previous contest. Andy Reid seemed extremely off in the loss to the Bills. He had Patrick Mahomes scramble just once, and what he did at the goal line wasn’t very logical. I got the sense that he was perhaps saving his best stuff for the inevitable rematch against Buffalo in the playoffs.

Reid will have to be more serious in this game because the division will surely be lost if the Broncos win this game and move way ahead of the Chiefs in the standings. The Chiefs wouldn’t even qualify for the playoffs if the season were to end today, so they have to get going here. Some will doubt that Mahomes can lead his team to victory because he will be going up against the No. 1 pass rush in the NFL. However, it must be noted that the Broncos blitz at the seventh-highest rate in the NFL. Mahomes eats the blitz alive, so I don’t think he’ll have much of an issue keeping the chains moving, especially if Patrick Surtain II is out again.

The Broncos do have some hope on this side of the ball. They rank 10th against the run, so Kareem Hunt won’t get much on the ground. I do, however, expect Mahomes to run much more than he did last week in what is almost a must-win.

RECAP: The Chiefs sometimes slack off during the regular season, particularly in non-night games. We saw this last year quite often. This is a different animal, however, as Kansas City needs a win to stay alive in the divisional race. Otherwise, they’ll have to fight for a wild-card spot.

The Chiefs should rebound off a loss. Mahomes, much like all elite quarterbacks, has a strong record following a defeat (15-10 against the spread). Reid, meanwhile, is great off a bye. He’ll be able to devise a terrific game plan for the Broncos with the extra time in between games.

Though this line moved off the juicy advance spread of Kansas City -2.5, I still like the Chiefs. They need to win, and they’re the better team when compared to the overrated Broncos.

There’s one thing to note here, which is that Payton, for whatever reason, has had great success against Reid when coaching a team with a winning record. Payton is 10-3 straight up versus Reid in that regard. I feel like the Chiefs’ bye week and desperation could negate that, but it’s still something that bothers me when handicapping this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Andy and I had a big disagreement on this game during our 4-hour livestream:

SATURDAY NOTES: The Broncos are going to miss some defenders, including Alex Singleton and Jonah Elliss. Of course, Patrick Surtain is the big injury. Unlike the Raiders, the Chiefs will be able to take advantage of that absence.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I saw a prominent betting personality on X say that the Broncos were the sharp side, but the pros have been betting on the Chiefs.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As mentioned before, the sharps bet the Chiefs at -3.5. The best line is -4 -105 at both BetMGM and Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Chiefs.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -6.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -2.5.

Computer Model: Chiefs -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.

Slight lean on the Chiefs.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 60% (111,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

History: Chiefs have won 17 of the last 18 meetings, excluding when the Chiefs rested their starters.

Patrick Mahomes is 105-29 SU, 71-61 ATS (57-47 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Patrick Mahomes is 6-1 ATS in the initial divisional matchup of the year as long as he’s not favored by -7 or more.

Patrick Mahomes is 15-10 ATS after a loss.

Andy Reid is 19-12 ATS off a bye.

Broncos are 34-19 ATS as home underdogs since 1991.

Sean Payton is 10-3 SU vs. Andy Reid when coaching a winning team.

Opening Line: Chiefs -2.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 69 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

If you didn’t catch it, I posted live bets during Week 10, including Daniel Jones over 50 rushing yards +750. I’ll be posting more live bets on X because it takes time to upload things to the site, so by the time I do, the line may be stale. Follow me @walterfootball for those live betting updates.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Any hope the Eagles had of maintaining their dominant running game that they established against the Giants prior to the bye disappeared at Lambeau Field. Saquon Barkley once again struggled to find running lanes. Granted, Lane Johnson missed about two quarters of action, but it’s not like Barkley was picking up chunks of yardage with Johnson on the field. Perhaps Barkley will reestablish himself, but it appears as though the performance against the Giants was a mirage.

If so, the Eagles certainly will not get anything on the ground via Barkley in this game. The Lions often have a solid run defense and are ranked on the border of the top 10. It’ll be difficult for Barkley to be dominant against this opponent.

However, I made sure to note Barkley on the ground and not Jalen Hurts. The Lions have struggled against mobile quarterbacks over the years, so Hurts could give them some fits. Hurts can also attack a Lions secondary that is missing some personnel.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions won’t be able to run either. They base their offense on being able to pound the ball with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, but the Eagles have one of the best run defenses in the NFL. They rank fourth in that category.

Jared Goff will have to operate without Gibbs and Montgomery ripping off chunks of yardage. While Goff can succeed under these circumstances against mediocre or worse pass defenses, things will certainly be much different in this matchup.

The Eagles have bolstered their pass rush with the trade of Jaelan Phillips and the return of Nolan Smith and Brandon Graham. They’ll be able to flood the backfield, which could create havoc for Goff, especially if either Penei Sewell or Taylor Decker misses time. Both tackles played last week, but neither is 100-percent healthy right now. Sewell missed some action versus the Redskins, but was able to return to the field.

RECAP: Of all the quarterbacks in the NFL, Goff has one of the widest dichotomies when it comes to his performances when kept clean and when he’s under pressure. Of course, every quarterback doesn’t fare as well when under pressure. Take Hurts, for example. When under pressure, his completion percentage drops by 17 percent, and his YPA falls by 1.7. Goff, however, is at another level. His YPA drops by 2.1, which is comparable, but his completion percentage drops by a staggering 32 percent.

I’m mentioning Goff’s pressure stats because he’ll see plenty of pressure in this game, especially if his tackles aren’t healthy. The Eagles, now with Phillips, Smith, and Graham, have one of the best pass rushes in the NFL. Their interior pass rush is especially lethal, and that’s where the Lions are weak up front. Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis should be able to dominate the interior.

Furthermore, the weather report indicates that there’s a 50-percent chance of rain. Most weathermen are liars, but if there will be rain, it’ll greatly hurt Goff, who often fares poorly in the elements.

If the Eagles weren’t coming off a short week, I’d consider them as a large wager. Teams are 8-16 against the spread following Monday Night Football this year, so the Eagles aren’t in a good spot, especially after such a hard-hitting affair versus the Packers. I’m still going to side with them for a smaller wager because I believe in their pass rush so much versus Goff. If there’s a strong indication of rain, I’ll increase the unit count.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s looking like percent chance of rain for this game is down 33 percent, but I still like the Eagles to cover because of their pressure.

SATURDAY NOTES: Sam LaPorta is out, but the Lions will have a chance to get some players back from injury, namely D.J. Reed and Malcolm Rodriguez. It’s not quite clear if they’ll be 100 percent, however.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: We’ll have to check the inactives list to see which Lions players will be on the field. I still like the Eagles for a couple of units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Detroit won’t have D.J. Reed or Malcolm Rodriguez available. The public is all over the Lions, while the sharps are on the Eagles. The best line is -2.5 -113 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Lions.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -1.5.

Computer Model: Lions -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.

The Lions are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 77% (146,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Lions.

Nick Sirianni is 2-5 ATS after Monday Night Football.

Opening Line: Eagles -1.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Clear, 46 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Cowboys.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Lost Vegas, otherwise known as Sim City. Tonight, the stupid dumb worst team ever Dallas Cowgirls take on the Oakland Raiders. Guys, you might be surprised to see me here after I was on Zoom from prison last week, but the prison granted me a furlough because I complained about not broadcasting my Philadelphia Eagles live. So, they sent me out, and I thought I was going to the Eagles game, but now I’m here broadcasting the stupid dumb worst team ever Dallas Cowgirls! Talk about having no luck! Mother, please forgive me for saying this, but the prison warden is a total dick!

Emmitt: Thanks, Dick. I find it very offensemen that you makin’ fun of the Dallas Cowboy. You call them Cowgirl, but the Cowboy do not has any girl on his team unless you count Jay Novacek because his nickedname was Gay Novaceck. I thought this funny because he replacing the number J with the number G. But then somebody telled me that gay mean man who like sexual with other man, probably because he confuse man with girl or he drunk alcowhole.

Reilly: Emmitt, you better be careful talking like that, or you’ll end up in prison with me. Maybe you’ll be my cellmate. My current cellmate tried to recruit me to a neo-Nazi club, but the leader said I was too much of a loser to join. I tried to tell him how many Nick Foles bobbleheads I had, but he just laughed and told me to leave. I think he’s the loser, and not me. Who doesn’t appreciate a Nick Foles bobblehead collection? Anyway, he told me to watch my butt in the shower, but I told him I couldn’t watch it because I don’t have eyes in the back of my head.

Tollefson: Reilly, don’t you listen? I told you what happens in prison showers last week. But hey, I have a new invention I’d like to sell you. It’s called eyes in the back of your head. You can put on these special glasses and you’ll see what’s behind you. I’ll charge you only $5,000. It’s a sweet deal, and believe me, it totally works! I swear on the life of one of my female slaves!

Reilly: Tolly, I appreciate the great opportunity, but if I have any money, it’s going toward buying new Nick Foles bobbleheads. Mother said that I should save up for a lawyer, but how can I do that when there are new Nick Foles bobbleheads to buy? Unless you want to give me a bump in allowance, New Daddy?

Jay Cutler: Yeah, why not?

Reilly: Seriously, New Daddy? Thank you, thank you, thank you!

Jay Cutler: Huh? I’m talking on the phone. I got asked if I wanted to subscribe to the magazine, “Watching Paint Dry Monthly.”

Reilly: New Daddy! Please! I love you so much! Maybe Clarissa Thompkins can talk New Daddy into a salary because I hear girls are able to go online and ask men for money if they do something, and they do it. It must be something like they pay $50 to make macaroni and cheese. Clarissa, what do you have to say?

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Cheese. I have some breaking news tonight. Geno Smith has been named emperor of the universe, and I will be quitting my job to make macaroni and cheese for him. Back to you, guys.

Reilly: HEY, WHY DIDN’T YOU ANSWER MY QUESTION!? IT’S ALMOST LIKE YOU’RE MAILING IT IN, CLARISSA! YOU’VE NEVER EVEN CALLED ME BY MY REAL NAME! MY NAME IS NOT CHEESE!

Mina Kimes: Kevin, you are very obnoxious. Don’t you know how great of a job Charissa Thompson is doing? You can tell she’s doing a great job because she’s a woman. Whatever she says is gold, all because she’s a woman and is very oppressed in this work environment. If you took her seriously, you’d realize that you have such a great reporter, just like if you took me seriously, you’d realize that you have the best football analyst on the planet here because I’m an Asian female NFL analyst. And this Asian female NFL analyst would like to point out that Geno Smith is playing in this game. You couldn’t have known that if you didn’t have an Asian female NFL analyst on your panel. And what’s more is that I can confidently say that Geno Smith is a top-zero NFL quarterback. He was top one, but I have since moved him up my rankings to top zero, and believe me, no one has better rankings than an Asian female NFL analyst, especially when compared to rankings made by a cis white man.

Reilly: Did you just say sis? I don’t have a sister. And if I did, I’d sell her on the black market so I can buy more Nick Foles bobbleheads.

Sarah Spain: EX-CA-USE ME! DID YOU JUST SAY BLACK MARKET!? EX-CA-USE-ME! HOW CAN YOU SAY SOMETHING SO OFFENSIVE!? THE CORRECT TERM IS AFRICAN AMERICAN MARKET; NOT BLACK MARKET! MAYBE IF YOU APPRECIATED GREAT FEMALE SIDELINE REPORTERS AND GREAT ASIAN FEMALE NFL ANALYSTS, YOU’D KNOW HOW OFFENSIVE YOU WERE BEING BY SAYING, WELL, I DON’T EVEN WANT TO SAY THE TERM BECAUSE IT’S SO OFFENSIVE REEEEEEEEEEE!!!

Reilly: OK, fine, fine. I’ll sell my sister on the African American market. Are you happy?

Charles Davis: Kevin, it sounds like you’re talking about black markets, Kevin. Let’s talk about different types of black markets, Kevin. We can begin illegal substance black markets, Kevin. How about weapons black markets, Kevin? Let’s transition to counterfeit items black markets, Kevin. I’d like to have a fireside chat about stolen information black markets, Kevin. We can’t forget about human trafficking, Kevin. I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention organ black markets, Kevin. And last but not least, Kevin, there’s the Kevin Reilly black market, Kevin, which has zero customers, Kevin.

Reilly: Liar! Mother would totally have interest in me on the Kevin Reilly black market, Charles Davis! We’ll be back right after this!

DALLAS OFFENSE: Anyone who doesn’t know anything about the Raiders may have watched the Thursday night game last week and wondered, “How are the Cowboys going to score against Vegas? The Raiders allowed only 10 points to the Broncos!” To those wondering this, don’t worry. Dallas won’t have any issues scoring against the Raiders.

What we saw Thursday night was an abomination of a game plan by Sean Payton and one of countless examples you’ll find about why Thursday night games are trash and should be eliminated. The Cowboys, with much more time to prepare for the Raiders than Payton had, will have a much better game plan. First of all, we know that Dallas will be able to run successfully against the Raiders, who are 21st in ground defense. Javonte Williams has been a pleasant surprise this year. He’s had many excellent performances, and this well be another one.

A healthy rushing attack will do wonders for Dak Prescott, who will need to overcome a disappointing performance against the Cardinals last Monday night. The Raiders have a much worse defense than the Cardinals; they produce next to no pressure on the quarterback despite Maxx Crosby’s presence. This puts tons of pressure on a secondary that was already devoid of talent. Prescott should be able to do whatever he pleases against the Raiders.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: While the Raiders are ranked 24th in defense, the Cowboys are even worse, coming in at 30th. This would explain why Jerry Jones was eager to obtain a couple of defensive players at the trade deadline despite owning a 3-5-1 record.

Quinnen Williams is going to be a monstrous addition to the interior of the defensive line. He and new linebacker Logan Wilson can stuff the run very well, so Dallas’ 30th ranking against the rush will be aided greatly with these two new acquisitions. I don’t expect the Cowboys to suddenly have a stout run defense, but if they’re suddenly in the middle of the pack, they won’t have much of a problem containing Ashton Jeanty.

Williams will also help with the pass rush, which has been average this year. The Cowboys, with Williams, will be able to rattle quarterbacks at a higher rate, which basically dooms Geno Smith’s matchup. The Raiders have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL – professional handicapper Andy Iskoe said on our Wednesday show that it’s the worst offensive line he’s ever seen – so Smith will feel tons of pressure from Williams, Kenny Clark, and budding second-round rookie Donovan Ezeriuaku.

RECAP: One thing that absolutely must be addressed is the unfortunate passing of Marshawn Kneeland. The Cowboys edge rusher passed away during the bye week. It’s unclear how the Cowboys will respond to this. Throughout my decades of handicapping the NFL, I’ve seen teams rally around a player death, and I’ve seen team struggle following a player death. I think this game is an impossible handicap for that reason.

Without the Kneeland factor, I would have been on the Cowboys. The additions of Williams and Wilson will strengthen the defense enough that the Cowboys will be able to limit the Raiders behind their poor offensive line. Williams, along with Clark and Ezeriuaku, will give the Raiders’ poor offensive line fits, while Prescott and the rest of the offense would be able to score at will against Las Vegas’ 24th-ranked defense.

I’ll be backing the Cowboys because of these edges, but with the team potentially not being able to respond to the death of Kneeland favorably, I’m going to avoid this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I still don’t know how the Cowboys will respond following the death of their teammate. I don’t think anyone knows.

SATURDAY NOTES: It doesn’t look like there are any major injuries in this game. I still have no opinion here.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: There was nothing of note on the final injury report. I still have no interest in this game.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: FanDuel is offering a 30-percent boost on a play tonight, up to $100. We’re going with Tyler Lockett over 26.5 receiving yards because Geno Smith is comfortable with him. Lockett has also seen an uptick in production since the Jakobi Meyers trade. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

We’re going to DraftKings for our same-game parlay because they have a 30-percent boost. The legs are as follows: Tyler Lockett over 27.5 receiving yards, Ashton Jeanty over 2.5 receptions, Michael Mayer over 2.5 receptions, George Pickens over 66.5 receiving yards. This $25 parlay pays $243.75. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s been some sharp money coming in on the Raiders at +3.5. I still believe this game is impossible to handicap. The best line is -3.5 -103 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Unknown.

It’s unclear how the Cowboys will handle Marshawn Kneeland’s death.

The Spread. Edge: Cowboys.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cowboys -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -3.5.

Computer Model: Cowboys -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 75% (38,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Cowboys -3.5.

Opening Total: 51.

Weather: Dome.