2025 NFL Picks – Week 11: Chiefs at Broncos

The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is another part of my Walt Goes to Vegas series, where I discuss the toxic hot tub.

DENVER OFFENSE: Sean Payton had one of the worst game plans you’ll ever see from a successful head coach. His team scored only 10 points against the horrible Raiders defense last Thursday night. Bo Nix was awful with his hideous footwork causing some poor throws, but Payton didn’t help with his dreadful play-calling. It’s almost like Payton wanted to utilize all the trick plays to see what would work because he had no respect for the Raiders.

I’d expect a more serious game plan from Payton this time, but he’ll be going against a tougher opponent. Unlike the Raiders, the Chiefs have a solid pass rush and will be able to rattle Nix a bit. If Nix continues to display poor footwork, this could cause some interceptions.

All hope isn’t lost here for the Broncos, however. The Chiefs have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL; they rank 26th in that regard, and we know that Denver can run effectively with J.K. Dobbins and R.J. Harvey.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Payton isn’t the only head coach in this game who had a poor game plan in his previous contest. Andy Reid seemed extremely off in the loss to the Bills. He had Patrick Mahomes scramble just once, and what he did at the goal line wasn’t very logical. I got the sense that he was perhaps saving his best stuff for the inevitable rematch against Buffalo in the playoffs.

Reid will have to be more serious in this game because the division will surely be lost if the Broncos win this game and move way ahead of the Chiefs in the standings. The Chiefs wouldn’t even qualify for the playoffs if the season were to end today, so they have to get going here. Some will doubt that Mahomes can lead his team to victory because he will be going up against the No. 1 pass rush in the NFL. However, it must be noted that the Broncos blitz at the seventh-highest rate in the NFL. Mahomes eats the blitz alive, so I don’t think he’ll have much of an issue keeping the chains moving, especially if Patrick Surtain II is out again.

The Broncos do have some hope on this side of the ball. They rank 10th against the run, so Kareem Hunt won’t get much on the ground. I do, however, expect Mahomes to run much more than he did last week in what is almost a must-win.

RECAP: The Chiefs sometimes slack off during the regular season, particularly in non-night games. We saw this last year quite often. This is a different animal, however, as Kansas City needs a win to stay alive in the divisional race. Otherwise, they’ll have to fight for a wild-card spot.

The Chiefs should rebound off a loss. Mahomes, much like all elite quarterbacks, has a strong record following a defeat (15-10 against the spread). Reid, meanwhile, is great off a bye. He’ll be able to devise a terrific game plan for the Broncos with the extra time in between games.

Though this line moved off the juicy advance spread of Kansas City -2.5, I still like the Chiefs. They need to win, and they’re the better team when compared to the overrated Broncos.

There’s one thing to note here, which is that Payton, for whatever reason, has had great success against Reid when coaching a team with a winning record. Payton is 10-3 straight up versus Reid in that regard. I feel like the Chiefs’ bye week and desperation could negate that, but it’s still something that bothers me when handicapping this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Andy and I had a big disagreement on this game during our 4-hour livestream:

SATURDAY NOTES: The Broncos are going to miss some defenders, including Alex Singleton and Jonah Elliss. Of course, Patrick Surtain is the big injury. Unlike the Raiders, the Chiefs will be able to take advantage of that absence.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I saw a prominent betting personality on X say that the Broncos were the sharp side, but the pros have been betting on the Chiefs.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As mentioned before, the sharps bet the Chiefs at -3.5. The best line is -4 -105 at both BetMGM and Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Chiefs.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -6.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -2.5.

Computer Model: Chiefs -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.

Slight lean on the Chiefs.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 60% (111,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

History: Chiefs have won 17 of the last 18 meetings, excluding when the Chiefs rested their starters.

Patrick Mahomes is 105-29 SU, 71-61 ATS (57-47 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Patrick Mahomes is 6-1 ATS in the initial divisional matchup of the year as long as he’s not favored by -7 or more.

Patrick Mahomes is 15-10 ATS after a loss.

Andy Reid is 19-12 ATS off a bye.

Broncos are 34-19 ATS as home underdogs since 1991.

Sean Payton is 10-3 SU vs. Andy Reid when coaching a winning team.

Opening Line: Chiefs -2.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 69 degrees. Light wind.