2025 NFL Picks – Week 11: Packers at Giants

The Matchup. Edge: TBA.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were: 34-42 in 2020, 48-37 in 2021, 32-35-1 in 2022, 31-27 ATS in 2023, and 49-45 in 2024. The public was 13-27 heading into Week 10.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Lions -7.5

Bills -8

Eagles +2.5

Panthers -5.5

The public went 1-4 in Week 1, 1-3 in Week 2, 0-3 in Week 3, 1-4 in Week 4, 1-3 in Week 5, and 1-3 in Week 6. The public finally had a winning week in Week 7, going 2-1. As for Week 8, the public was an even 3-3. It also went 3-3 in Week 9 and then 2-2 in Week 10.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Lions +2.5

Cowboys -3.5

Seahawks +2.5

Ravens -8

I can’t say that any of these are very surprising.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Jaxson Dart is so fun to watch, but we may not get to see him play very much if he continues to get hit at a high rate. Dart has now been evaluated for concussions on four occasions, and he hasn’t even played eight games yet. Dart was finally forced out of action last week in what appeared to be a potential upset victory. Russell Wilson came in and ruined things, naturally.

It’s unclear if Dart will pass concussion protocol. Given how the NFL has handled concussions lately, it’s likely that we’ll see Wilson start one more game. If so, the Giants won’t do much scoring. Not only is Wilson decrepit; he also has nothing at his disposal. Dart can at least make things happen with his legs. Wilson used to be able to do that, but that’s no longer the case.

The Giants would have some hope of running the ball if Dart were playing. The Packers are 22nd against the run, after all, and Green Bay would have nightmares trying to figure out whether to defend Dart or Tyrone Tracy. However, with Wilson under center, the Packers will be able to play closer to the line of scrimmage because they won’t have to respect Wilson at all.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: The Packers will be adversely affected by the loss of Tucker Kraft in most matchups moving forward. This matchup, however, is not one of them.

The Giants have the second-worst run defense in the NFL. The Packers have Josh Jacobs. Thus, all Green Bay has to do is feed the ball to Jacobs. Seems simple, right? You’d think so, but we just watched the Bears throw at a high rate for some reason, even when it was early in the game. Ben Johnson’s strategy made no sense, but perhaps Matt LaFleur will understand to keep things simple.

Jacobs’ great running will create easy throwing opportunities for “No Cookie” Jordan Love. The Packer quarterback didn’t play his best on Monday night, but had to face an elite defense. The Giants, who have injuries in the secondary, won’t put up much resistance.

RECAP: I’ll have to post my official pick later in the week once we know Dart’s status. What I’m going to do is rather straightforward. If Dart plays, I’m going to consider the Giants for a wager. The Packers, coming off a short week, won’t have enough time to create a full game plan for Dart. Teams are 8-16 against the spread coming off Monday Night Football this year, and it’s easy to see why teams are often sub .500 in that regard.

Conversely, if Wilson starts for Dart, we’ll be on the Packers for a moderately sized wager. Green Bay won’t have to do much preparation for one of the worst teams in the NFL, and that’s exactly what the Giants would be with Wilson starting alongside a receiver corps devoid of talent and a defense that can’t stop the run or the pass.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Packers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -8.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -7.

Computer Model: Packers -11.5.

The Vegas. Edge: TBA.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on New York: 56% (4,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: TBA.

Matt LaFleur is 61-47 ATS in the regular season.

Opening Line: Packers -7.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: .