2025 NFL Picks – Week 11: Cowboys at Raiders

The Matchup. Edge: Cowboys.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Lost Vegas, otherwise known as Sim City. Tonight, the stupid dumb worst team ever Dallas Cowgirls take on the Oakland Raiders. Guys, you might be surprised to see me here after I was on Zoom from prison last week, but the prison granted me a furlough because I complained about not broadcasting my Philadelphia Eagles live. So, they sent me out, and I thought I was going to the Eagles game, but now I’m here broadcasting the stupid dumb worst team ever Dallas Cowgirls! Talk about having no luck! Mother, please forgive me for saying this, but the prison warden is a total dick!

Emmitt: Thanks, Dick. I find it very offensemen that you makin’ fun of the Dallas Cowboy. You call them Cowgirl, but the Cowboy do not has any girl on his team unless you count Jay Novacek because his nickedname was Gay Novaceck. I thought this funny because he replacing the number J with the number G. But then somebody telled me that gay mean man who like sexual with other man, probably because he confuse man with girl or he drunk alcowhole.

Reilly: Emmitt, you better be careful talking like that, or you’ll end up in prison with me. Maybe you’ll be my cellmate. My current cellmate tried to recruit me to a neo-Nazi club, but the leader said I was too much of a loser to join. I tried to tell him how many Nick Foles bobbleheads I had, but he just laughed and told me to leave. I think he’s the loser, and not me. Who doesn’t appreciate a Nick Foles bobblehead collection? Anyway, he told me to watch my butt in the shower, but I told him I couldn’t watch it because I don’t have eyes in the back of my head.

Tollefson: Reilly, don’t you listen? I told you what happens in prison showers last week. But hey, I have a new invention I’d like to sell you. It’s called eyes in the back of your head. You can put on these special glasses and you’ll see what’s behind you. I’ll charge you only $5,000. It’s a sweet deal, and believe me, it totally works! I swear on the life of one of my female slaves!

Reilly: Tolly, I appreciate the great opportunity, but if I have any money, it’s going toward buying new Nick Foles bobbleheads. Mother said that I should save up for a lawyer, but how can I do that when there are new Nick Foles bobbleheads to buy? Unless you want to give me a bump in allowance, New Daddy?

Jay Cutler: Yeah, why not?

Reilly: Seriously, New Daddy? Thank you, thank you, thank you!

Jay Cutler: Huh? I’m talking on the phone. I got asked if I wanted to subscribe to the magazine, “Watching Paint Dry Monthly.”

Reilly: New Daddy! Please! I love you so much! Maybe Clarissa Thompkins can talk New Daddy into a salary because I hear girls are able to go online and ask men for money if they do something, and they do it. It must be something like they pay $50 to make macaroni and cheese. Clarissa, what do you have to say?

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Cheese. I have some breaking news tonight. Geno Smith has been named emperor of the universe, and I will be quitting my job to make macaroni and cheese for him. Back to you, guys.

Reilly: HEY, WHY DIDN’T YOU ANSWER MY QUESTION!? IT’S ALMOST LIKE YOU’RE MAILING IT IN, CLARISSA! YOU’VE NEVER EVEN CALLED ME BY MY REAL NAME! MY NAME IS NOT CHEESE!

Mina Kimes: Kevin, you are very obnoxious. Don’t you know how great of a job Charissa Thompson is doing? You can tell she’s doing a great job because she’s a woman. Whatever she says is gold, all because she’s a woman and is very oppressed in this work environment. If you took her seriously, you’d realize that you have such a great reporter, just like if you took me seriously, you’d realize that you have the best football analyst on the planet here because I’m an Asian female NFL analyst. And this Asian female NFL analyst would like to point out that Geno Smith is playing in this game. You couldn’t have known that if you didn’t have an Asian female NFL analyst on your panel. And what’s more is that I can confidently say that Geno Smith is a top-zero NFL quarterback. He was top one, but I have since moved him up my rankings to top zero, and believe me, no one has better rankings than an Asian female NFL analyst, especially when compared to rankings made by a cis white man.

Reilly: Did you just say sis? I don’t have a sister. And if I did, I’d sell her on the black market so I can buy more Nick Foles bobbleheads.

Sarah Spain: EX-CA-USE ME! DID YOU JUST SAY BLACK MARKET!? EX-CA-USE-ME! HOW CAN YOU SAY SOMETHING SO OFFENSIVE!? THE CORRECT TERM IS AFRICAN AMERICAN MARKET; NOT BLACK MARKET! MAYBE IF YOU APPRECIATED GREAT FEMALE SIDELINE REPORTERS AND GREAT ASIAN FEMALE NFL ANALYSTS, YOU’D KNOW HOW OFFENSIVE YOU WERE BEING BY SAYING, WELL, I DON’T EVEN WANT TO SAY THE TERM BECAUSE IT’S SO OFFENSIVE REEEEEEEEEEE!!!

Reilly: OK, fine, fine. I’ll sell my sister on the African American market. Are you happy?

Charles Davis: Kevin, it sounds like you’re talking about black markets, Kevin. Let’s talk about different types of black markets, Kevin. We can begin illegal substance black markets, Kevin. How about weapons black markets, Kevin? Let’s transition to counterfeit items black markets, Kevin. I’d like to have a fireside chat about stolen information black markets, Kevin. We can’t forget about human trafficking, Kevin. I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention organ black markets, Kevin. And last but not least, Kevin, there’s the Kevin Reilly black market, Kevin, which has zero customers, Kevin.

Reilly: Liar! Mother would totally have interest in me on the Kevin Reilly black market, Charles Davis! We’ll be back right after this!

DALLAS OFFENSE: Anyone who doesn’t know anything about the Raiders may have watched the Thursday night game last week and wondered, “How are the Cowboys going to score against Vegas? The Raiders allowed only 10 points to the Broncos!” To those wondering this, don’t worry. Dallas won’t have any issues scoring against the Raiders.

What we saw Thursday night was an abomination of a game plan by Sean Payton and one of countless examples you’ll find about why Thursday night games are trash and should be eliminated. The Cowboys, with much more time to prepare for the Raiders than Payton had, will have a much better game plan. First of all, we know that Dallas will be able to run successfully against the Raiders, who are 21st in ground defense. Javonte Williams has been a pleasant surprise this year. He’s had many excellent performances, and this well be another one.

A healthy rushing attack will do wonders for Dak Prescott, who will need to overcome a disappointing performance against the Cardinals last Monday night. The Raiders have a much worse defense than the Cardinals; they produce next to no pressure on the quarterback despite Maxx Crosby’s presence. This puts tons of pressure on a secondary that was already devoid of talent. Prescott should be able to do whatever he pleases against the Raiders.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: While the Raiders are ranked 24th in defense, the Cowboys are even worse, coming in at 30th. This would explain why Jerry Jones was eager to obtain a couple of defensive players at the trade deadline despite owning a 3-5-1 record.

Quinnen Williams is going to be a monstrous addition to the interior of the defensive line. He and new linebacker Logan Wilson can stuff the run very well, so Dallas’ 30th ranking against the rush will be aided greatly with these two new acquisitions. I don’t expect the Cowboys to suddenly have a stout run defense, but if they’re suddenly in the middle of the pack, they won’t have much of a problem containing Ashton Jeanty.

Williams will also help with the pass rush, which has been average this year. The Cowboys, with Williams, will be able to rattle quarterbacks at a higher rate, which basically dooms Geno Smith’s matchup. The Raiders have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL – professional handicapper Andy Iskoe said on our Wednesday show that it’s the worst offensive line he’s ever seen – so Smith will feel tons of pressure from Williams, Kenny Clark, and budding second-round rookie Donovan Ezeriuaku.

RECAP: One thing that absolutely must be addressed is the unfortunate passing of Marshawn Kneeland. The Cowboys edge rusher passed away during the bye week. It’s unclear how the Cowboys will respond to this. Throughout my decades of handicapping the NFL, I’ve seen teams rally around a player death, and I’ve seen team struggle following a player death. I think this game is an impossible handicap for that reason.

Without the Kneeland factor, I would have been on the Cowboys. The additions of Williams and Wilson will strengthen the defense enough that the Cowboys will be able to limit the Raiders behind their poor offensive line. Williams, along with Clark and Ezeriuaku, will give the Raiders’ poor offensive line fits, while Prescott and the rest of the offense would be able to score at will against Las Vegas’ 24th-ranked defense.

I’ll be backing the Cowboys because of these edges, but with the team potentially not being able to respond to the death of Kneeland favorably, I’m going to avoid this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I still don’t know how the Cowboys will respond following the death of their teammate. I don’t think anyone knows.

SATURDAY NOTES: It doesn’t look like there are any major injuries in this game. I still have no opinion here.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: There was nothing of note on the final injury report. I still have no interest in this game.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: FanDuel is offering a 30-percent boost on a play tonight, up to $100. We’re going with Tyler Lockett over 26.5 receiving yards because Geno Smith is comfortable with him. Lockett has also seen an uptick in production since the Jakobi Meyers trade. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

We’re going to DraftKings for our same-game parlay because they have a 30-percent boost. The legs are as follows: Tyler Lockett over 27.5 receiving yards, Ashton Jeanty over 2.5 receptions, Michael Mayer over 2.5 receptions, George Pickens over 66.5 receiving yards. This $25 parlay pays $243.75. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s been some sharp money coming in on the Raiders at +3.5. I still believe this game is impossible to handicap. The best line is -3.5 -103 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Unknown.

It’s unclear how the Cowboys will handle Marshawn Kneeland’s death.

The Spread. Edge: Cowboys.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cowboys -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -3.5.

Computer Model: Cowboys -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 75% (38,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.

Opening Line: Cowboys -3.5.

Opening Total: 51.

Weather: Dome.