2025 NFL Picks – Week 11: Chargers at Jaguars

The Matchup. Edge: Chargers.

Video of the Week: If you could redo your life, but had to die first, would you do it? That’s the premise of this short film:

I won’t spoil the ending, but wow.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The Chargers beat the Steelers on Sunday night, but they struggled to move the chains for most of the evening. They had a touchdown drive in the second quarter after a turnover, and they put together a 90-yard scoring possession when the Steelers gave up at the end, but the Chargers pretty much didn’t really do anything else.

The problem for the Chargers was the tackle play. With their top three tackles sidelined, they couldn’t block the Steelers at all, and Justin Herbert had to resort to short passes. Herbert will have to utilize a similar strategy in this game. The Jaguars don’t have a very good defense, but the one good thing they do on this side of the ball is generate heat on the quarterback. They have the 10th-highest pressure rate in the NFL, so they’ll be able to bother Herbert enough to disrupt many of the Chargers’ offensive drives.

Herbert was able to get some quality runs from Kimani Vidal on Sunday night. The Steelers are 21st against the run, so this wasn’t too much of a surprise. The Jaguars are 15th versus the rush, so while they’re not great at defending ground attacks, they’ll at least have a better chance of containing Vidal than Pittsburgh.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Justin Herbert isn’t the only struggling quarterback entering this game. Despite the team’s winning record, Trevor Lawrence has been a big disappointment this year. He’s two seasons removed from all the injuries he suffered at the end of the 2023 campaign, and he was paired with a new head coach and a No. 2 overall receiver, and yet Lawrence has not played very well.

Of course, Lawrence had a very difficult matchup against the Texans last week, but it doesn’t get much easier against the Chargers. San Angeles has had some issues on this side of the ball earlier in the season, but that hasn’t been the case since Khalil Mack and Denzel Perryman returned from injury. Mack has been massive for the team’s pass rush. This is obviously bad news for the Jaguars, who surrender the eighth-most pressures in the NFL this season.

Perryman, meanwhile, has enhanced the Chargers’ run defense. Lawrence has been able to lean on Travis Etienne in some easy matchups this year, but this won’t be one of them.

RECAP: Both of these teams are on my fade list. I was very high on the Chargers early in the season, as well as in the Thursday night game against the Vikings a few weeks ago, but I can’t back them confidently because of their tackle injuries. Some of their results without Alt include a loss to the Giants, a near-loss to the Dolphins, and a blowout defeat at home to the Redskins. They could easily suffer a defeat in Jacksonville.

The Jaguars, however, can’t be trusted. They have the sort of defensive liabilities that allowed Davis Mills to lead a comeback in the fourth quarter. Offensively, the receivers are injured, the blocking sucks, and the quarterback sucks even more.

In the end, I trust Herbert more than Lawrence, so I’ll be siding with the Chargers. I have no intention of betting this game, barring some wild surprises on the injury report.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m still on the Chargers for no units. Nothing has changed concerning this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: I wrote previously that I would be on the Jaguars for no units, but I meant Chargers. I don’t really have anything to add right now. Still a lean on the Chargers.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Chargers look much more appealing right now. This is because the Jaguars won’t have their best offensive lineman (Anton Harrison) or their top receiver (Brian Thomas Jr.) I was wondering if the sharps would notice, but they have not. They haven’t bet either side. We’re going to put a unit on the Chargers at FanDuel, which has -3 -102 listed. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chargers -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chargers -1.5.

Computer Model: Chargers -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.

Decent action on the Chargers.

Percentage of money on San Angeles: 73% (82,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

Jim Harbaugh is 10-3 ATS in 1 p.m. East Coast games.

Jaguars are 68-116 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Opening Line: Chargers -1.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 77 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.