2025 NFL Picks – Week 11: Ravens at Browns

The Matchup. Edge: Ravens.

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BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Lamar Jackson continues to get better every week. Jackson looked rusty in the first half of the Miami game before he roasted the Dolphins in the second half. He then was able to lead his team to victory over a tough Minnesota defense that has been boosted lately by the return of Andrew Van Ginkel from injury.

Jackson has another difficult test against the Browns, but it’s not like he hasn’t overcome them in the past. Back in Week 2, Jackson had a slow start versus Cleveland before extending the lead in the second half and ultimately scoring 41 points against them. The Browns defense looked exhausted at the end of that game, which was the case in the second half versus the Jets.

The Browns will do what they can to limit the Ravens, and it could work for a bit. Ultimately, however, they’ll have to get some assistance from the offense to avoid another late-game meltdown.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Will we see the Browns’ scoring unit help its defense out at all in this game? No. No, they will not.

The Browns, as they are currently constructed, could have perhaps had some offensive success against the Ravens in Weeks 4-6 when the team had catastrophic injuries. That’s not the case anymore, as nearly everyone has returned to the defense. Since Week 8, the Ravens have sported the No. 7 defense in the NFL. As I noted repeatedly last week, backup quarterbacks play poorly against top-10 defense. The thing is, Dillon Gabriel may not even be a backup-caliber quarterback. He looks like a third-string practice squad player at best, and I’m not even sure he could start in the CFL. He’s small, he has no arm strength, and he doesn’t understand what’s happening with the opposing defense.

Dillon, who couldn’t even succeed against the Jets’ bottom-five defense, is going to get crushed by the Ravens. Baltimore will not respect him, so the team will be able to play closer to the line of scrimmage to contain Quinshon Judkins. This is going to be an ugly performance by Cleveland’s offense.

RECAP: Whenever you see a large favorite like this, you need to inspect if they’ll be looking ahead to a tough matchup or looking behind to a big win. Neither is true for the Ravens, who battle the Jets next week.

This is a big game for the Ravens because they’ll be able to improve to 5-5 and potentially tie the Steelers atop the AFC North. It’s also a great matchup because their seventh-ranked defense will have its way with Gabriel, who needs to be faded against every tough defense he’ll battle moving forward because he’s not a real NFL quarterback.

If you couldn’t tell, I plan on betting a healthy sum against the Ravens. This line may seem high, but I think it’s about right. The projected spread accounts for the disparity in the talent of these two teams, but it doesn’t factor in the extremely favorable matchup Baltimore has versus Gabriel.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There might be some heavy winds in this game, but weather is impossible to predict, so this could actually be a nice weather game.

SATURDAY NOTES: If you’re looking at the injury report and seeing that Marlon Humphrey is out, don’t worry about it. Humphrey’s not even playing well this year, but even if he were, the Browns couldn’t take advantage of that. Meanwhile, the Browns have a couple of injured defensive linemen, including top edge run stuffer Alex Wright (excluding Myles Garrett). Maliek Collins, meanwhile, is questionable. Also, there’s supposedly poor weather in the forecast, but weathermen don’t know how to predict anything, so there’s no way of knowing if the conditions will be poor.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m going to be betting the Browns team total under. Even if the Ravens can’t score enough to cover, we should win some money with the Browns under.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s no sharp aciton on this game. I’m sure we’ll get more special-teams garbage go against us in this game, but I just bet the Ravens -7.5 -105 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

I’m also betting the Browns team total under. BetMGM has a 20-percent boost up to $100 for the NFL. We can turn Browns under 14.5 -120 into +100.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Ravens -8.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -7.5.

Computer Model: Ravens -7.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 84% (104,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Ravens.

History: Ravens have won 27 of the last 35 meetings.

John Harbaugh is 16-8 ATS in his second-consecutive road game.

Kevin Stefanski is 2-6 ATS in same-season revenge games.

Kevin Stefanski is 1-5 ATS as a divisional underdog of 7+.

Opening Line: Ravens -8.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 44 degrees. HEAVY WINDS, 23 mph.