2025 NFL Picks – Week 11: Bengals at Steelers

The Matchup. Edge: Bengals.

We have a new section on the site! we have a place for WalterFootball.com Video Content. We’ll be releasing short videos (8-20 minutes) on this page, with a new video each day. It’ll be a quick way to get NFL picks, fantasy football, and NFL Draft content.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The Bengals received some great news in the past couple of days. They learned that Joe Burrow may return sooner than expected, as he’s targeting a Week 13 appearance. If the Bengals win one of their next two games, they’ll be in a position where they can run the table and sneak into the playoffs.

That’s not the only good piece of news that the Bengals received lately. The other occurred during the Sunday night affair against the Chargers. The Steelers lost numerous cornerbacks to injury, which has to be music to the Bengals’ ears. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins were already going to provide a tough challenge – as we saw in Cincinnati’s win over Pittsburgh in a Thursday night game – but the Steelers are now going to have to cover those two talented receivers without some of their corners. Good luck!

As if things weren’t bad enough, the Steelers also figure to struggle against the run. That has been a common theme for them this year, given that they rank 21st against the rush. Chase Brown has been much better with Joe Flacco under center, so he should continue to run well.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Steelers actually had a great matchup with their defense against the Chargers last week, yet they lost because Aaron Rodgers kept sailing passes over his receivers’ heads. If Pittsburgh couldn’t beat a team with a great defensive edge, how will they do so when their defense is a major liability?

Obviously, the Steelers will be facing a far worse defense in this game. While the Chargers are sixth in defense, the Bengals are 32nd. Cincinnati is especially poor when it comes to stopping the run. Jaylen Warren figures to have a big performance.

Rodgers, however, will have to make some big plays. He might be able to do so while connecting with his many tight ends, but he can’t rely on getting the ball to DK Metcalf because D.J. Turner has emerged as one of the better cornerbacks in the NFL. Also, it sounds like Trey Hendrickson may not play. It’s still early in the week, but the Bengals are at least somewhat functional against the pass when Hendrickson is on the field. His status will determine how successful Rodgers will be in this game.

RECAP: I’m being serious when I say this, but I was considering the Bengals to be my November NFL Pick of the Month prior to hearing the Hendrickson news. If Hendrickson were to play, this line wouldn’t make any sense. The Steelers, with all of their defensive injuries, aren’t much better than the Bengals, who have played at a higher level with Flacco under center and Hendrickson starting on the other side of the ball. I would have made this line Pittsburgh -1.5 if Hendrickson were announced as being likely to play. That’s way off the current listed spread of -5.5!

However, I still love the Bengals if Hendrickson doesn’t play. The Steelers don’t have a good offensive line, so it’s not like I’d trust them to block the Hendrickson-less Bengals anyway. Furthermore, their secondary is a complete mess. They had to move Jalen Ramsey to safety because they didn’t have any healthy safeties, and now they don’t have any healthy cornerbacks. How in the world are they going to cover Chase and Higgins?

This is going to be a five-unit selection. I could see the rested Bengals winning this game outright, but even if they fall behind, they’ll certainly be in a spot where they’ll be able to get a back-door cover with their explosive play-makers.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Bengals.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Steelers -3.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Steelers -6.

Computer Model: Steelers -5.

The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.

Plenty of action on the Bengals.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 69% (5,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

History: Steelers have won 27 of the last 38 meetings.

Aaron Rodgers is 138-103 ATS since 2009.

Aaron Rodgers is 45-29 ATS after a loss (14-8 ATS as a favorite of 7.5+).

Opening Line: Steelers -5.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: .