2025 NFL Picks – Week 11: Jets at Patriots

The Matchup. Edge: Patriots.

Week 10 Analysis: We had an awesome Sunday afternoon, thanks to a win in our October NFL Pick of the Month with the Lions covering easily over the Redskins. As a bonus, we also hit our -20.5 +390 alt line.

Of course, not everything was perfect. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Raiders, 4 units (loss): We began the week with an ugly loss. This was one of two bad picks I made last week. For some reason, I completely discounted that the Broncos could be looking ahead to the Chiefs. They did not show up to play against the Raiders, perhaps because of that reason.

Browns, 3 units (loss): I was extremely tilted about this game. We lost a bunch of games last week because of special teams nonsense:

So you can imagine my frustration when the Jets scored on two special-teams touchdowns. I believe the Browns would have won and covered if it wasn’t for those dumb touchdowns.

Seahawks, 3 units (win): The only thing to go wrong here was that I removed a unit from my original selection. Actually, my original selection was three units, but then I added a fourth, only to take the fourth away and go back to three.

Lions, 8 units (win): An easy win, though we needed a late field goal to cover the -20.5.

Rams, 3 units (win): Another easy win. The 4 o’clock window was incredible.

Steelers, 5 units (loss): Unfortunately, our second bad pick of the week. I was right on the money with the Chargers’ blocking issues – though that wasn’t too difficult to predict – but I didn’t factor in how bad Pittsburgh’s offense would look against the Chargers’ sixth-ranked defense.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Although the weather is unpredictable, and many meteorologists lie to stimulate the economy, we may have to begin looking at weather reports regarding Drake Maye. It was clear that Maye was struggling with the wet conditions in Tampa Bay to begin last week’s game. Luckily, the rain disappeared, and Maye went back to dominating, which included a 72-yard bomb to Kyle Williams.

Maye will be able to continue his incredible 2025 season in this very easy matchup. The Jets, who were already poor against the pass early in the season, lost Sauce Gardner and Michael Carter in trade deadline deals, so they’re going to be even worse against aerial attacks moving forward. We didn’t see evidence of that last week because Dillon Gabriel is so talentless that he probably wouldn’t even be a starter in the CFL, but Maye will be able to take advantage of this massive liability.

The Jets will also be worse against the run because of Quinnen Williams’ departure. They were able to play close to the line of scrimmage last week because they weren’t threatened by Gabriel at all. That won’t be possible versus Maye, so we could see TreVeyon Henderson burst for some big gains.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Anyone who just looks at the Jets-Browns score may see a 27 and think that New York’s offense did a solid job of moving the ball against Cleveland. That couldn’t be further from the truth. Fourteen points came on special teams, and the Jets were able to put together only one quality drive on the afternoon.

Justin Fields was terrible against the Browns, and there’s reason to believe that he’ll struggle again. Garrett Wilson got hurt on Sunday, so Fields could be playing without his top receiver once again. This will be against the Patriots, who are fourth in total pressures – check out the NFL Pressure Rankings here – so Fields will constantly be under siege when dropping back to pass.

The Patriots are also ninth when it comes to stopping the run. With Wilson sidelined, the only hope the Jets would have is picking up first downs via Breece Hall receptions and Fields scrambles, but I don’t think we’ll see much of that in this game.

RECAP: My rule for Thursdays is to back the better team as long as they’re focused. The thinking is that the inferior team doesn’t have enough preparation time to formulate a good game plan against the superior foe.

The Patriots are obviously better than the Jets. They also match up extremely well against them. But Will New England be focused? The Broncos certainly weren’t because they were coming off a win and had to battle the Chiefs the following week. The Patriots are also coming off a signature win against the Buccaneers, but with the Bengals on the horizon, they don’t have much ahead of them. This will also be the first time the Patriots will be battling the Jets this year.

I’m going to continue my hard fade of the Jets by selecting the Patriots for three units. This would be a bigger wager if the Patriots had beaten a lesser opponent last week, but we could also see the Jets struggle following a victory because bad teams tend to fare poorly after wins.

Our Week 11 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

The Motivation. Edge: Jets.

The Patriots are coming off a big win in Tampa Bay.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Patriots -12.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Patriots -10.5.

Computer Model: Patriots -11.

The Vegas. Edge: Patriots.

Decent lean on the Patriots.

Percentage of money on New England: 67% (8,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

History: Patriots have won 37 of the last 45 meetings.

Opening Line: Patriots -10.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Clear, 39 degrees. Light wind.