2025 NFL Picks – Week 11: Texans at Titans

The Matchup. Edge: Texans.

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HOUSTON OFFENSE: We begin with the Texans because of C.J. Stroud’s uncertain status. Stroud missed last week’s game with a concussion. Players who suffer their first concussion of the year typically miss only one game, but as of Tuesday afternoon, Stroud is still in concussion protocol. There’s a chance we might see Davis Mills again.

Now, this may not be a terribly bad thing because Mills performed well last week. Stuck in a big deficit because of special teams nonsense, Mills engineered a terrific comeback in the fourth quarter. Granted, this came against Jacksonville’s 22nd-ranked defense, but the Titans are even worse with their defense, coming in at 29th. They have the second-fewest pressures in the NFL, which has to be music to either Stroud or Mills’ ears because of how bad Houston’s blocking is.

The Titans also struggle to stop the run. The Texans finally seemed to acknowledge that Woody Marks is the superior running backs, so the explosive rookie could have some big gains this week.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Cam Ward is not concussed, but he played like he was when he battled the Texans the first time earlier in the season. His team scored a grand total of zero points in a pathetic showing.

Nothing has changed from a personnel perspective to make anyone believe that this could be a different result. Ward holds on to the ball too long and takes far too many sacks as a result. This will be devastating against Houston’s elite defensive line. It seems unlikely that Tennessee will get anything going aerially as a result.

The Titans will have better luck moving the chains on the ground, but only by default. The Texans are worse against the run than the pass, but they’re still a solid 10th versus ground attacks.

RECAP: We’ll have to see if Stroud can clear concussion protocol, but that won’t determine my level of interest in Houston. On the contrary, I’d be interested in the Titans if they weren’t so dreadful.

First of all, this is a truly horrid spot for the Texans. Not only are they coming off a huge comeback win against the Jaguars; they have to battle the Bills this upcoming Thursday. And if that wasn’t enough, they also beat this Titans team earlier in the year. This is the same spot the Bills were in last week, and we saw what happened to them.

Second, Stroud coming off a concussion isn’t necessarily a good thing. Quarterbacks tend to struggle off concussions, so I wouldn’t expect him to play at his best, which he would need to do if the Texans were to cover this high number.

Believe it or not, I’m going to side with the Titans, assuming Stroud starts. If it’s Mills, we’ll get a more favorable number, so I’ll have to reconsider this selection.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’ve thought about it, and I’m switching to the Texans for two reasons. First, Davis Mills is likely to start, so I think that may invalidate Houston’s potential look-ahead because the players know they’ll have to try hard with their backup quarterback. Second, Tennessee is complete garbage and does nothing well. The Titans are 5-24 against the spread since Week 1 of last year for a reason.

SATURDAY NOTES: I think I’ll be betting two or three units on the Texans. We’re waiting on the status of Jeffery Simmons, and to a lesser extent, Calvin Ridley and Arden Key. Simmons is the big one, though it must be noted that at DNP-limited-limited this week, he didn’t have a full practice this week.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There are some major injury updates here, with the Titans having Jeffery Simmons and Calvin Ridley available. This could be why the sharps have been betting the Titans. I will have no part of this game. If you still like the Texans, the best line is -5.5 -105 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: Titans.

The Texans are coming off a great comeback win. They already beat the Titans, and after this game they have to play on Thursday against the Bills.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Texans -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Texans -7.5.

Computer Model: Texans -7.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Texans.

Slight lean on the Texans early, much more later.

Percentage of money on Houston: 72% (76,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Texans.

History: Texans have won 5 of the last 6 meetings.

Opening Line: Texans -7.5.

Opening Total: 37.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 65 degrees. Light wind.