NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 10, 2025 – Late Games

NFL Picks (Week 1, 2025): 9-7 (-$725)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2025): 7-9 (-$925)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2025): 6-10 (-$1,285)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2025): 6-10 (+$410)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2025): 8-6 (-$25)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2025): 8-7 (-$785)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2025): 9-6 (+$1,160)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2025): 9-4 (+$115)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2025): 8-6 (-$545)
2025 NFL Picks: 79-67-1 (-$1,715)

2024 NFL Picks: 144-136-12 (-$1,380)
NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

---

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 9, 11:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 10 NFL Picks – Early Games

The Matchup. Edge: Seahawks.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now. Besides, I wrote a similar-type book is called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:

Oh, and my other book is still available as well:

In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Seahawks looked like the best team in the NFL on Sunday night. Their offense scored on every single first-half possession, with Sam Darnold completing his first 17 passes. Seattle simply put on a clinic.

It won’t be so easy for the Seahawks to repeat that against the Cardinals, even with Rashid Shaheed joining the team. Arizona isn’t known as a strong defense, but the team had the 13th-ranked EPA defense heading into Week 9. This is a far cry from where the Redskins are ranked, which is 29th. The Cardinals are particularly strong versus the run, ranked fourth in that regard. This is a big deal, given that the Seahawks rely on the run so much.

Darnold has been great, so putting the clamps on the Seahawks passing offense is crucial as well. The Cardinals have a decent secondary, so they’ll be able to limit Seattle’s pass catchers. The pass rush also seems to be better with Walter Nolen joining the team, so Darnold won’t have nearly as much time as he enjoyed on Sunday night.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: It’s hilarious how perceived narratives have suddenly changed concerning Arizona’s offense. Trey McBride was seen as someone who couldn’t score touchdowns, yet he has become a touchdown machine ever since Jacoby Brissett took over for the injured Kyler Murray. Marvin Harrison Jr., meanwhile, was seen as a colossal bust thus far, yet he had an amazing performance against the Cowboys on Monday night. It’s almost as if McBride and Harrison weren’t to blame.

It’s unclear if Brissett will play over Murray once again. I wrote last week that I preferred Brissett to Murray, but that isn’t quite the case this week. I wouldn’t say I’d rather have Murray either, but backup quarterbacks, while very effective against bad defenses, struggle versus top competition. The Seahawks are fifth in defensive EPA, so they certainly qualify as top competition.

An elite defense like the Seahawks can dismantle one-dimensional offenses. The Cardinals have had one ever since losing both James Conner and Trey Benson, and it’s not like either was that great this year anyway. The stout Seattle defense won’t sweat to clamp down on Bam Knight or Ball Dropper Demercado, and its great pass rush will make life difficult for Arizona’s quarterback.

RECAP: The Seahawks have owned the Cardinals. They’ve defeated them in eight consecutive meetings. It was a three-point game back in Week 4, but most of the other scores have been more lopsided. The margin of victory otherwise has been 12, 10, 1, 10, 10, 10, and 8. Seven is right on the cusp of those results.

I’m going to side with the Seahawks once again. They match up extremely well with the Cardinals, which is why they’ve defeated them in eight consecutive meetings. Their stellar defense will disrupt a one-dimensional offense, so Arizona won’t score very much. Their offense is good enough to score consistently against Arizona’s slightly above-average defense.

Also, consider that the Cardinals are going to be operating on a short week. Teams have struggled mightily following Monday night games this year, going just 8-15 against the spread as long as there is no impending bye week. The Cardinals are inferior compared to the Seahawks and need all the time they can get to pull the upset, but they won’t have that luxury this week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Jacoby Brissett has been named the starter. He’s been better than Kyler Murray, but hasn’t faced a top-10 defense like Seattle’s yet. Backup quarterbacks tend to struggle against top-10 defenses.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Cardinals will be without two starting cornerbacks in this game. That’s not a positive outlook against a quarterback who completed his first 17 passes last week. I’m bumping the unit count up to four.

PLAYER PROPS: Seattle cannot stop tight ends at all. We’re going to continue to bet tight ends against them. The best number for Trey McBride is over 62.5 -114 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m hoping we can get a -6.5 line again, but I don’t think we will.

FINAL THOUGHTS: No more -6.5. The sharps have been on both sides in this game, as they’ve taken Arizona +7 and Seattle -6.5. I’ve decided to go back to the three units I originally had on the Seahawks, as their mentality off a national TV blowout win is a bit worrying. The best line is -7 -105 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Seahawks -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -6.

Computer Model: Seahawks -9.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.

Decent action on the Seahawks.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 72% (110,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: TBA.

History: Seahawks have won the last 8 meetings.

Kyler Murray is 21-10 ATS as an underdog. ???

Seahawks are 61-49 ATS as home favorites since 2007.

Seahawks are 9-17 ATS as a favorite of 6+ since 2017.

Opening Line: Seahawks -6.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 60 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Lions.

If you’re looking to bet legally, you can get the best sportsbook promos where you’ll get hundreds of dollars in free wagers if you sign up using the links on this page.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: We’ll begin with the Redskins offense because that’s where all the changes are this week. I’m referring to Jayden Daniels, of course. Daniels dislocated his elbow and will miss extensive time. Marcus Mariota will start instead.

Mariota is capable of playing well against poor competition, as we saw when he posted 41 points against the Raiders earlier this season. However, backups like Mariota are often a horrible bet when battling top-10 defenses. The Lions are certainly a top-10 defense. In fact, they’re ranked No. 1 overall in EPA. Their defense is capable of placing plenty of pressure on the quarterback, so that’s something that will bother Mariota. Of course, Mariota’s receiver corps is in question as well. Terry McLaurin and others are sidelined, so Mariota won’t have too many options at his disposal.

Mariota won’t be able to lean on the run either. The Lions typically have a strong run defense, though they’re ranked 12th at the moment. Still, with the Detroit defenders playing closer to the line of scrimmage with Mariota under center instead of Daniels, it’s unlikely that Jacory Croskey-Merritt will find much running room.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions got off to a nice start against the Vikings, but couldn’t do much after that. The reason is that Detroit lost three offensive linemen to injuries. Rookie guard Christian Mahogany was lost for the year, while tackles Penei Sewell and Taylor Decker were knocked out for the game. When asked about their availability for the game, Dan Campbell said they’re both “touch and go,” and that they wouldn’t practice on Wednesday.

We’ll see if Sewell and/or Decker can play in this game. If both are out, the Lions will have issues moving the ball. Sure, the Redskins don’t have much of a pass rush, but even they were able to dismantle the Chargers offense when Joe Alt was sidelined several weeks ago. Sure, Dorance Armstrong is out now, but it doesn’t seem like the Lions can function without both of their tackles. They have just one other natural tackle on their roster.

If, however, the Lions can get at least one of their tackles back from injury, they’ll be perfectly fine. Washington has a putrid defense that can’t stop anything. The team has an awful secondary that just got worse with Marshon Lattimore’s season-ending injury. With no pass rush to speak of, the Redskins will allow big gains to Jared Goff, if protected. Meanwhile, the Lions will pick up big chunks of yardage on the ground with their two talented backs.

RECAP: If the Lions get one of their tackles back from injury, I will definitely be betting the Lions for a high unit count. There is a massive talent discrepancy on both sides of the ball. Mariota will be a huge liability against a strong defense, especially with no receivers and poor blocking. Washington’s defense, meanwhile, will not be able to do anything to stop the Lions.

This has all the makings of the massacre, and we even have incentive on Detroit’s side. The Lions are coming off a divisional loss and will be eager to rebound so they can avoid dropping to 5-4.

Also, this line is just wrong. Assuming the Lions have at least one tackle, they should be lined at close to two touchdowns. I made this spread -13.5, and yet the spread isn’t even -10! It seems as though the oddsmakers haven’t made the correct adjustment for how bad the Redskins are. They were just +3 versus the Seahawks, for crying out loud. Let’s take advantage of this with a huge play on Detroit, as long as either Sewell or Decker plays.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’ve been considering this as my October NFL Pick of the Month, in addition to the Pittsburgh pick. What I need to see is either Penei Sewell or Taylor Decker practicing enough to play. We’ll see what the injury report looks like by the end of the week.

SATURDAY NOTES: Great news: Penei Sewell will play. Taylor Decker is questionable, so he has a shot to suit up as well. The Lions will be my October NFL Pick of the Month.

ALT LINE: We’re going with the Lions -20.5 alt line because this figures to be extremely lopsided. The best line is -20.5 +390 at FanDuel. Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I don’t know why the sharps are on the Redskins, but this line has moved to +7.5. I’m not worried about it.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Lions will have both tackles available. I don’t know why, but the sharps have taken the Redskins at +8.5 and +8, but like I said, I’m not worried about it. The best line is -8 -105 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Lions.

The Lions are the better team coming off a loss.

The Spread. Edge: Lions.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Lions -13.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Lions -3.5.

Computer Model: Lions -10.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

People love the Lions.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 91% (125,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Lions.

Dan Campbell is 13-4 ATS after a loss since his second season.

Dan Campbell is 6-1 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Opening Line: Lions -3.5.

Opening Total: 51.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 66 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

I told you about my two books, How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen and a Safety and a Field Goal! Well, I’ve written a third book that was released this past spring! It’s called Jerks of the College Years. If you like Jerks of the Week, you’ll like Jerks of the College Years, as it’s a collection of weirdos I wrote about during my time at Penn State.

You can support the site by buying this book and spreading the word!

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: The Rams lost to the 49ers a few weeks ago, but it’s not like they played poorly offensively. They gained 456 yards of offense and averaged 7.1 yards per play. The reason they scored just 23 points is that they repeatedly shot themselves in the foot and failed to convert short-yardage opportunities.

The matchup against the 49ers is even easier this time. Fred Warner and Bryce Huff were on the field for San Francisco in the prior matchup, but they may both miss this game. We know Warner will, while Huff has missed the past two games. Everyone knows who Warner is, and how great he is, but Huff played a vital role on this team when healthy. He had the most pressures on the team in the wake of Nick Bosa’s injury. With Bosa and Huff both sidelined, the 49ers can’t generate any pressure on the quarterback. Matthew Stafford, who is already protected very well, will have all afternoon to expose San Francisco’s secondary.

The Rams won’t be able to run the ball as well. The 49ers have a pass-funnel defense because of all their injuries, but they’re solid against the run. They rank seventh in that regard, so they should be able to put the clamps on Kyren Williams and Blake Corum.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers, naturally, will try to keep the ball in Christian McCaffrey’s hands as much as possible. McCaffrey will have his usual gains through the air, but it’s unclear how effective he’ll be on the ground. The Rams have been both strong and weak against the rush at various points this year, most recently shutting down the run against the Jaguars and Saints.

It seems unlikely that the 49ers will be able to generate a consistent passing attack. Mac Jones had a solid performance against the Rams in the first matchup between the teams, but it seemed as though Los Angeles took the 49ers lightly because of the quarterback situation. The Rams have a stellar pass rush, which spells trouble for a San Francisco offensive line that is right on the border of being among the top 10 of pressures allowed.

Jones, as a result, doesn’t project to do well in this game. Two weeks ago, he struggled to do much of anything against Houston’s defense. The Rams generate even more pressure on the quarterback.

RECAP: The Rams took the 49ers lightly in the first meeting between the teams. That’s unlikely to happen again, given that San Francisco won the first matchup.

Assuming the Rams bring 100-percent intensity to this game, they should be able to win fairly easily. Their offense won’t face any resistance against the 49ers’ skeleton-crew defense. Their elite pass rush, meanwhile, will bother Jones and force some sacks and turnovers.

I love the Rams in this matchup, and I’m a fan of the line value as well. I wish we were still getting the -3 on the advance line, but -3.5 is still good. I personally made this number -5.5. The 49ers are only +3.5 because of their record, which gives us a good opportunity to fade the horrible Bill Parcells quote that goes, “You are what your record is,” which is a complete fallacy.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: As someone backing the Rams, something I didn’t want to see was Bryce Huff practicing. Huff, unfortunately, practiced on a limited basis on Wednesday. If Huff plays, I still like the Rams, but not by as much. I’m going to drop the projected unit count to two.

SATURDAY NOTES: Puka Nacua doesn’t have an injury designation. Neither does Bryce Huff. However, I still like the Rams, as their defense should still be able to dismantle San Francisco’s offense.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This line has moved to -6 in some sportsbooks. The sharps have been betting the Rams.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have been all over the Rams. This line is -6 in many places, but you can still get -5.5 -115 at FanDuel or DraftKings. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Rams.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Rams -3.

Computer Model: Rams -5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 53% (116,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

History: 49ers have won 28 of the last 39 meetings, excluding the 2012 tie and a 2023 game where both teams sat starters.

Opening Line: Rams -3.5.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 78 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Steelers.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is the third part of my Walt Goes to Vegas series, where I discuss all the crazy responses to my Money Laundering t-shirt.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: There’s a big difference between how the Chargers performed in the first three weeks of the season, plus the Thursday night game against the Vikings, and how they struggled in other games. This is because Joe Alt has been out for those other contests. I loved the Chargers last week against the Titans, but one of the very unlucky elements to that game was Alt suffering an injury in the second quarter.

Alt won’t be back, which is far from ideal for Herbert. The Steelers’ pass rush just exploded against the Colts, so that obviously bodes very poorly for Herbert. The Chargers couldn’t even pass protect against Washington’s pedestrian pass rush when Alt was sidelined, so I don’t expect Herbert to see much time against T.J. Watt and company.

Herbert will be hoping that Kimani Vidal can ease some pressure off of him, but that doesn’t seem likely. Vidal couldn’t find any running room last week with multiple offensive linemen out, and we just saw the Steelers put the clamps on Jonathan Taylor.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Several weeks ago, I would have liked the Steelers’ chances of scoring against the Chargers defense. Things have changed for the better for the Chargers, however, so Pittsburgh won’t have much success this week.

The big additions that the Chargers have had recently are Khalil Mack and Denzel Perryman being back from injury. Mack strengthens the pass rush, and we all know that the Steelers don’t protect very well. Aaron Rodgers certainly does, which is why he releases the ball quickly. This negates pressures, but also makes it difficult to maintain consistent drives.

Perryman, meanwhile, can clamp down on the run. Jaylen Warren was able to rush well against the Colts, but won’t find nearly as much room against the Chargers.

RECAP: The Chargers are in rough shape with Alt sidelined once again. Without Alt, the Chargers will not be able to pass protect against the Steelers, who were able to hound Daniel Jones behind his superior blocking unit. Watt and the rest of the Steelers will disrupt Herbert’s passing ability.

Given that the Chargers are much worse without Alt, I love the Steelers in this spot. The oddsmakers haven’t made enough of an adjustment to the line because of the Alt injury as a result of the public being clueless about the situation. The advance spread was -4.5 and has been moved to -3, but this isn’t enough of a shift. I made this line Chargers -1, which is being generous because I gave the Chargers one point for being at home. The Chargers, as we know, have no home-field advantage. There are going to be more Steeler fans in the stands than Charger fans. Steeler fans travel better than most teams, so it’ll be bad enough where Herbert will have to go to a silent count. Given the makeshift nature of the offensive line, this could be extremely problematic.

This is my top play of the week. We’re able to fade an injured team, side with the squad that has the better matchup, and receive line value. The Steelers look great here, and I’m considering them to be my October NFL Pick of the Month.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The vig is rising on Pittsburgh, indicating a potential move to +2.5. Chargers backup right tackle Bobby Hart missed Wednesday’s practice, which is further bad news for their horrible offensive line.

SATURDAY NOTES: Bobby Hart is out, so the Chargers will be down their top three tackles. That’s not good against a healthier Steelers front seven. I love the Steelers, but wish we were still getting the opening line of +3.5. The sharps made sure us peons wouldn’t be able to bet that number.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The best +3 line is currently +3 -112 at Caesars. I’ll think about locking this in later in the afternoon.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps were on the Steelers earlier in the week, but have come in pretty hard on the Chargers. I’m not sure why, but I’m glad to get +3.5 -117 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Steelers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chargers -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chargers -4.5.

Computer Model: Chargers -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.

Looks like sharp action driving this line down.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 66% (149,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

Mike Tomlin is 65-37 ATS as an underdog.

Aaron Rodgers is 138-102 ATS since 2009.

Aaron Rodgers is 33-25 ATS as an underdog.

Opening Line: Chargers -3.5.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Green Gay, home of the Green Gay Fudge Packers and tonight, my Philadelphia Eagles, the greatest team in the history of humanity, and also the history of the entire universe, and also every universe that has ever existed, will defeat the Fudge Packers. But as much as I’d like to finally broadcast a game with my Philadelphia Eagles, I can’t do it live because I’m currently joining you via Zoom from jail. I’ve been holding in my pee for almost 24 hours now because I’m afraid to use the John with my cellmate watching me!

Emmitt: Thanks, John. I do not knowed that you in prism right now. My uncle Frederick Smith IV the III Esq. Dr. the VIII Smith spended five year in prism. When he comed out free, he telleded me, “Earl, you has to try to avoid prism at all costs. Because if you in the shower in prism and you drop a soap, you gonna get violationed.” I does not knowed what he meaned, but I can only guessed that they take your soap away for good and you smell bad for the rest of your times in prism.

Reilly: Emmitt, my first shower is tomorrow, and I already fear what could happen. I heard such things as well, but I can only guess what they might do. Do you think they’ll find my Nick Foles bobblehead dolls and snap their heads off? That would be a big violation for me.

Tollefson: Reilly, you fool, they’re going to stick their kielbasas in your backside in the shower if you drop your soap, to quote the famous Matt Millen. I like to play a similar game with my female slaves. I send them out naked in the woods, and I hunt them down with my dogs, and if I don’t catch them, they get to survive and cook and clean for me until the next hunt. If I catch them? Well, let’s just say that their services won’t be needed anymore. Everyone has a good time with it. If the girls don’t laugh and smile when we do the hunt, I make sure they do. By the way, what are you in prison for? Did you get into trouble for threatening the lives of the Cowboys players last week?

Reilly: I got into trouble for saying that trans fans don’t exist when I said that it was impossible for a Giants fan to become an Eagles fan, no matter how many new jerseys and bobbleheads they get. It’s BS, and I’m not admitting that I was wrong! New Daddy will bail me out of jail though, right New Daddy?

Jay Cutler: Eh. Nah.

Reilly: New Daddy! Please! I love you so much! Maybe Clarissa Thompkins can talk New Daddy into it because they both like to stare at walls and watch paint dry.

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Jack. I have a breaking story for tonight’s game. We’re going to be honoring Kevin Reilly at halftime tonight as a result of his backside being violated by kielabsas in the shower. Back to you, John!

Reilly: WHAT!? THE ONLY BACKSIDE THAT WILL BE VIOLATED IS YOURS, AND ANYONE WHO OPPOSES MY PHILADELPHIA EAGLES! I DON’T EVEN KNOW WHAT THAT MEANS, BUT I’M ANGRY!

Mina Kimes: Wow, this is a very toxic work environment. This guy keeps yelling on his Zoom call, and no one is giving me major congratulations on my NFL offseason prediction that Geno Smith would be a top-one quarterback, and that Sam Darnold would be a worse replacement for him in Seattle. I also said you beat quarters coverage by going over the top. Now, I’m going to make another prediction. I predict that one of the men on this panel will get credit for my bold predictions because no one respects Asian female NFL analysts. Which one of you is going to take credit with my Geno Smith top-one quarterback gem? You’re all probably in on it! If I were a cis white man, they’d be enshrining me in the NFL Hall of Fame already for my great takes!

Reilly: What is this crazy lady squawking about? I’m trying to see if my cellmate is asleep so I can finally do a pee-pee.

Sarah Spain: EX-CA-USE ME! DID YOU SAY SQUAWKING!? EX-CA-USE ME!? DON’T YOU REALIZE YOU’RE TALKING TO THE MINA KIMES!? SHE GIVES THE AUDIENCE SO MANY GREAT FOOTBALL TAKES THAT NOT ONLY WILL SHE BE ENSHRINED IN THE HALL OF FAME, THEY WILL RENAME THE HALL OF FAME THE MINA KIMES HALL OF FAME. BUT THEY WON’T DO IT BECAUSE SHE’S FEMALE AND ASIAN, SO SHE’S REALLY OPPRESSED, AND NO THANKS TO YOU BOZOS ON THIS CHANNEL!

Reilly: Ugh, more squawking. You guys sound like Mother when I don’t complete my homeschool homework because I was too busy playing with my Nick Foles bobblehead dolls. Anyway, it looks like I can finally use the toilet now.

Charles Davis: Kevin, it sounds like you’re talking about things you can do on the toilet, Kevin. Let’s start with simple urination, Kevin. That is called a No. 1, Kevin. That’s something you’ll never be, Kevin, is No. 1, Kevin. How about making a poop, Kevin. Now, there’s all sorts of poop, Kevin. There’s hard poops, Kevin. There’s wet poops, Kevin. And then there are Kevin poops, Kevin, which is redundant, Kevin.

Reilly: Oh, yeah!? Well, what about a Charles Davis poop, Charles Davis!? How would you like it if I hurt your feelings like you hurt mine all the time, you Charles Davis poop!? We’ll be back right after this!

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: It’s unclear exactly why the Packers were so sloppy against the Panthers. Were they flat off a win on national TV versus their former quarterback? Were they looking ahead to this game? Were they hung over from celebrating “No Cookie” Jordan Love’s birthday? Perhaps it was a mix of the three because the Packers shot themselves in the foot offensively on numerous occasions last week, resulting in a shocking loss to the Panthers.

I’d say the Packers could rebound, but there will be two things preventing that from happening. The first is that the Packers suffered a number of injuries to their skill players. Tucker Kraft is out for the year with a torn ACL, while Christian Watson and Matthew Golden both got banged up. We’ve seen how much worse Love plays without Watson, but we haven’t seen him without both Watson and Kraft.

The second thing preventing a Green Bay resurgence is Philadelphia’s defense. The Eagles added a trio of new players ever since they took the field previously, including Jaelan Phillips, who will strengthen the pass rush. There are some holes on Green Bay’s front to exploit. Furthermore, the Eagles are stout against the run, ranking fifth against it. Josh Jacobs won’t find much running room.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Speaking of the running game, the Eagles surprisingly have not rushed the ball all that well this year. Saquon Barkley ranks second-to-last in yards prior to contact, thanks to some sketchy blocking by an underachieving offensive line.

There’s some cause for optimism, however. The Eagles blocked extremely well against the Giants prior to the bye, as Barkley dashed for a 65-yard touchdown on the second play from scrimmage. Was this a fluke performance, or a sign of things to come? We’ll see, but it helps that the Packers are just 19th against the run.

If Barkley can get going, that’ll only help Jalen Hurts even more. Hurts has been on fire lately, and he should stay hot in this matchup. The Packers have some liabilities at cornerback that Hurts’ two dynamic receivers can exploit. Green Bay is effective at generating pressure on the quarterback, but Hurts’ pass protection has been very good.

RECAP: Which Packer team will we see? The one that dismantled the Steelers on national TV, or the one that keeps losing or tying mediocre or worse opponents? If Kraft and some of the receivers hadn’t suffered injuries, I suspect that I would have predicted Green Bay to bounce back off its embarrassing loss. However, Love’s weapons aren’t healthy, and he really needed them to be against Philadelphia’s top-10 defense.

While the Packers lost personnel, the Eagles added three defenders via trade. I suspect that Phillips, at the very least, could elevate the Eagles’ 10th-ranked standing upward to the top five. If so, the Eagles will be able to limit what the Packers do offensively. Meanwhile, Green Bay’s suspect defense figures to struggle against Philadelphia’s offense.

Though we lost some line value – the Eagles were three-point favorites on the advance line – I still like Philadelphia to cover this number and win outright. I don’t know if I’ll bet the game – the injury report may dictate the unit count – but I like the Eagles to thwart Green Bay’s attempt to avenge its most recent playoff loss.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No injury report has been published yet, so we’ll have to wait and see which injured Packer receivers are practicing.

SATURDAY NOTES: Cam Jurgens doesn’t look likely to play, but the Eagles run blocked well without him prior to the bye. As far as the Green Bay injured receivers, Christian Watson has been limited twice, while Matthew Golden was downgraded to DNP on Friday. Also, cornerback Nate Hobbs may not play, which makes DeVonta Smith’s matchup easier.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The Eagles will have A.J. Brown available. The sharps continue to back them.

SAME-GAME PARLAY: We’re going to DraftKings to do our same-game parlay because they have a 20-percent boost listed. We’re going with Jordan Love under 235.5 passing yards, Luke Musgrave under 28.5 receiving yards, and DeVonta Smith over 4.5 receptions. This $25 parlay pays $130.50. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are on the Eagles. I somehow can’t find a +1 or a +1.5 line with favorable vig for us. The best I see is PK -104 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -3.

Computer Model: Packers -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Packers.

Plenty of action on the Eagles.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 77% (242,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Eagles are 41-28 ATS as road underdogs since 2005.

Matt LaFleur is 61-46 ATS in the regular season.

Opening Line: Packers -3.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Slight chance of snow, 27 degrees. Light wind.